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Risks and Assumptions is a column of a log frame that list all things that might disrupt plans. This is due to events and conditions that are unforeseeable that might affect the implementation of project.
The test for Risk and Assumption within log frame is by looking at past events and seeing out of those activities.
Example: I want to give vaccines to people in the village{rural areas} and create awareness of some viral diseases.
what if they are not going to take it?
what if they are discouraged by their traditions ?
what some of them have underlining sickness?.

In our everyday life we are told to, never make assumptions. However, making assumptions in project management is an everyday activity. Making assumptions helps you define scope and risks and tune your estimates for time and cost. It is also essential to document and validate your assumptions. Making assumptions creates benchmarks that are often revisited during the project to aid the project team in staying within scope, on time, and within budget. But what happens when assumptions are wrong? It is where the risk comes into play. Once you have built your scope and identified the assumptions that are behind the scope and estimates, you will want to begin assessing areas of risk. Risk is the same in project management as it is in the real world; it is a hazard or chance that can create damage. All projects contain risk, and if you are the project manager or project owner, it’s not only your responsibility to anticipate risk, but it’s also your job to communicate the potential impact of those risks to the project team and to prepare to mitigate the risks. Risk comes in various degrees. Sometimes risk can mean the project will run slightly differently or take a small, unexpected turn. In some cases, however, risk can lead to catastrophic results that turn your project on its head.

Risks are things both within the project or external forces that are out of the control of the implementers but could potentially affect the project

Assumptions are important biases that guide the activities and the project flow, that are not supported by any prior evidence from similar projects or other forms of literature

In every project, there are underlying risks and assumptions. If these assumptions are not factored into the logic model, they may affect the implementation of the project.

Quite Insightful

an assumption is any project factor that is considered to be true, real, or certain without empirical proof or demonstration. Realistically speaking, it's impossible to plan a project without making a few assumptions.
Whereas, With a risk we anticipate that the risk might happen and thus negatively impact our project.

Risks and assumptions.
I understand risks as things outside of my control that may negativity affect my project. Meanwhile assumptions are those things I believe might or might not happen without evidence.

One assumption in my project is that the CAREGivers would be interested in being certified for Dementia Training. In reality, some of them don't want to develop in their career. Another assumption is that having more qualified CAREGivers may not increase our business.

The risks are very important as they help the project coordinators to project what might happen and when that happens they would be able to deal with those. They also help to keep the project on track as the coordinators will always be aware of what might happen. Very interesting!

Describe the threat (or opportunity) which is the source of the risk, Describe the event that could result from the identified threat or opportunity, Describe the consequences (or impacts) of that event.Risk is essentially made up of three components, these being:
Threats or Opportunities.
Risk Events.
Risk Impacts.
An assumption is something that you assume to be the case, even without proof. For example, people might make the assumption that you're a nerd if you wear glasses, even though that's not true. Assumption testing of your chosen analysis allows you to determine if you can correctly draw conclusions from the results of your analysis. You can think of assumptions as the requirements you must fulfill before you can conduct your analysis.

Risks is an assumption with higher chance of failure. It is an event that could with a notable probability and could affect the outcome of our project. You have to take risks into account when planning as they might change the entire setup if the event actually occurs. Without assuming certain things planning would be impossible, as we know for certain how the future will look like. We have to assume our government keeps working, our organization will keep existing and weather will flow as usual pattern. Sometimes we look at these things as if they were facts, but in reality, they are just assumptions, as we cannot be 100% sure.

risks and assumptions serves to assess whether the Goals and Activities proposed are realistic and achievable in the given time frame and within the given available human and financial resources.
In this context, a risk is defined as an uncertain threat that, in case of occurring, could have a negative impact in the completion of the Goal or Activity. An assumption, on the other side, is the necessary condition that will enable the successful completion of the Goal or Activity.

risks and assumptions serves to assess whether the Goals and Activities proposed are realistic and achievable in the given time frame and within the given available human and financial resources.
In this context, a risk is defined as an uncertain threat that, in case of occurring, could have a negative impact in the completion of the Goal or Activity. An assumption, on the other side, is the necessary condition that will enable the successful completion of the Goal or Activity.

risks and assumptions serves to assess whether the Goals and Activities proposed are realistic and achievable in the given time frame and within the given available human and financial resources.
In this context, a risk is defined as an uncertain threat that, in case of occurring, could have a negative impact in the completion of the Goal or Activity. An assumption, on the other side, is the necessary condition that will enable the successful completion of the Goal or Activity.

risks and assumptions serves to assess whether the Goals and Activities proposed are realistic and achievable in the given time frame and within the given available human and financial resources.
In this context, a risk is defined as an uncertain threat that, in case of occurring, could have a negative impact in the completion of the Goal or Activity. An assumption, on the other side, is the necessary condition that will enable the successful completion of the Goal or Activity.

An assumption is a statement that you assume to be true. Without assuming certain things planning would be impossible, as we never know for certain how the future will look like. We have to assume our government keeps working, our organization will keep existing and the weather will follow its usual pattern. Sometimes we look at these things as if they were facts, but in reality, they are just assumptions, as we cannot be 100% sure.

A risk is an assumption with a higher level of failure. It is an event that could happen with a notable probability and could affect the outcome of your project substantially. You have to take risks into account when planning your project as they might change the entire setup if the event actually occurs. They might even end your entire project if they occur.

Risks and assumptions are crucial to take into account when creating a monitoring and evaluation plan. Given that there are so many factors that can prevent your inputs, outputs, outcomes, and indicators from not happening the way you see them happening, it is a helpful exercise to think about what could go wrong or what conditions you are assuming will exist to ensure your intended events happen.

I think an important aspect to bear in mind is that the risk is essentially an assumption as well, considering the risk as an absolute affects budget planning immensely, the budget that goes towards risk management should also remain reasonable and within the realistic set of events.

I think an important aspect to bear in mind is that the risk is essentially an assumption as well, considering the risk as an absolute affects budget planning immensely, the budget that goes towards risk management should also remain reasonable and within the realistic set of events.

Non applicable

It is of paramount importance that risks and assumptions should be predicted as part of refraining from biases. Risks and assumptions need not to be ignored because they can affect the implementation progress of the project.

risk and assumptions help the project experts to take note of the biases of the project and find solutions to counter them to achieve the desired impact.
risk and assumptions are carried at every stage, in the inputs, outputs, outcome and impact stages.

Identifying risks and assumptions identify and neutralize bias. It is important to address risks and assumptions by conducting formative research.

Dear beautiful learners!

While studying the risks and assumptions topic, I realized that it is imperative to remove biases in our project. What are your thoughts on this?

Best Regards,
Komal Singh

le taux de fille ayant bénéficié des allocations peut être considéré comme indicateur et pour la vérification il faut une étude

le taux de fille ayant bénéficié des allocations peut être considéré comme indicateur et pour la vérification il faut une étude.
Pour des objectifs irréalistes on peut considérer que toutes les filles vont bénéficier des allocations

le taux de fille ayant bénéficié des allocations peut être considéré comme indicateur et pour la vérification il faut une étude.
Pour des objectifs irréalistes on peut considérer que toutes les filles vont bénéficier des allocations
Pour le recueil des données, on peut faire une enquête auprès des prestataires de santé

In order to identify risks and assumptions, a preliminary analysis of the context is paramount. This analysis can be done by reading governamental and international papers about the context where the project will operate, or by conducting a research on some key issues that characterize the context. In this way, we would understand better the dynamics of the society where we want to intervene with our project.

From what I have observed in this module; it is very important to consider risks and assumptions in project design. They are like an eye opener to any unforeseen eventualities. I have seen projects that have failed to meet objectives and what I can conclude is that not much attention was paid to the risks and assumptions surrounding the project. This is a very helpful insight I have got from this module.

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I am planning to ambush my Uncle with a big surprise.I don't want to tell him directly.I want to buy him a new car.I have discussed with my cousin(his son).
The son as says the dad does not easily welcome surprises.
What if the car is not his type?
What if he does not want to add any car anymore?
I would end up asking my uncle what if he gets a new car and what is his favorite make/model.

I really have confidence that M&E will be the best solution to most problems in uncertainty.

Having gone through two modules,I really hope muvh will be achieved and I will make my organization grow more

risks and assumptions are guides to assess whether the Goals and objectives proposed are realistic and achievable in the given time frame and within the given available human and financial resources.

M and E will solve most of the set goals

Monitoring and evaluation helps with identifying the most valuable and efficient use of resources. ... Monitoring and evaluation together provide the necessary data to guide strategic planning, to design and implement programmes and projects, and to allocate, and re-allocate resources in better ways.

Monitoring and evaluation (M&E) are processes that help improve project and organizational performance so that you can achieve the results you want. The monitoring piece of M&E provides detailed information on assessed activities and where improvements can be made

M&E improves decision-making

Data should drive decisions. M&E processes provide the essential information needed to see the big picture. After a project wraps up, an organization with good M&E can identify mistakes, successes, and things that can be adapted and replicated for future projects.

Identifying risks and assumptions serves to assess whether the Goals and Activities proposed are realistic and achievable in the given time frame and within the given available human and financial resources.
In this context, a risk is defined as an uncertain threat that, in case of occurring, could have a negative impact in the completion of the Goal or Activity. An assumption, on the other side, is the necessary condition that will enable the successful completion of the Goal or Activity.
In order to avoid repetition and redundancy, risks and assumptions should be defined at two levels: general and specific level.

General risks and assumptions can be either related to the overall implementation of the Roadmap or common to all Goals included in the Roadmap. Specific risks and assumptions will be related to a concrete Activity, i.e. a particular risk that could hinder the successful implementation of a concrete Activity or an assumption that is key to the implementation of a specific Activity. For instance, a specific assumption for the Activity "establishing an Authorised Economic Operators Scheme" is that incentives granted to AEOs are enough to motivate private traders to invest in the time and resources to get the certification.

If described negatively, an assumption can become a risk. On the contrary, if defined in positive terms, a risk can be transformed into an assumption. Thus, it is very important to pay attention to redundancy.
Assumptions that were considered in the form of risks do not need to be noted again and vice-versa. Similarly, risks and assumptions that were defined at general level, do not need to be mentioned again at specific level. If resistance to change is a major risk for the overall completion of the Roadmap's Goals, it would be also risk for the different Activities considered

Risks and assumptions.
I understand risks as things outside of my control that may negativity affect my project. Meanwhile assumptions are those things I believe might or might not happen without evidence.

Director of planning

Director of planning

What happens now when you failed to identify the risk or assumptions of your project until at a later stage?Say for example,at almost the end of your project.

Risks and Assumption are very important during the project management.

In this context, a risk is defined as an uncertain threat that, in case of occuring, could have a negative impact in the completion of the Goal or Activity. An assumption, on the other side, is the necessary condition that will enable the successful completion of the Goal or Activity.
From my own understanding , an assumption is any project factors that is considered to be true, real or certain without empirical proof or demonstratioon.
In conclusion, it's impossible to plan a project without making a few assumption while a risk is an assumption with a notables probability and could affect the outcome if your project.

Assumptions is a statement that you assume to be true and risks is a assumptions with higher level of failure.

It is important to identify risks and assumptions to understand what might affect the implementation of your project so you can act at the right time with the right actions.

During the design phase, can't there be a small survey with the target population to make more informed risks and assumptions for the project?

Risks and Assumptions must be taking in planning for M and E. These are things that might distrupt the planning process.
From each level, from inputs to impacts, some questios could arise on what could go wrong from providing the inputs, and if inputs are provided, will it leads to the respective outputs
This will lead to IF...THEN statement, in which we will need to bring some assumptions in order to achieve our goal.

Risks and assumptions are issues that may or may not arise when planning your logframe. For example in the case where I want to start and ngo for lympedema patients to assist in cost reduction my assumption may be that there actually people that need financial assistance. However, I have no evidence to support this. Also I'm not sure whether by starting this project I will reach as many people as I may anticipate. How many people would be willing to take the funds? How many people are experiencing financial stain due to the condition? My assumption is that by going on social media I will get that data but how sure I'm I that by starting the organization I will draw out as many people as intended. So the outcome might not be as expected based on those biases.

During the design phase, can't there be a small survey with the target population to make more informed risks and assumptions for the project?

Risks and assumptions help us remove biases and other factors (internal or external) that may hurt our projects. If done properly they help strengthen project impacts. To generate risks and assumptions, we can re-visit old projects'log frames, ask directly from the beneficiaries and by finally looking at the current activities to check the common assumptions already listed.

Risks and assumptions are potential factors of a project success. Before going to implement a project activities, risks and assumption should identify. It will help to plan alternatively to avoid the risks and assumptions. Possible issues should scan out at the designing phase of a project through theoretical or structural research. In many cases it is identified that, few un-assured cases arrive during project implementation. M&E plan could find the issues and analyze the gaps.....

Assumptions and risks identification could be a great deal with the casual effect among the stages of log frame. If it is behind, the purposes of the project (Objectives) will be not possible to reach.

Risks and assumptions need to be addressed carefully. Some of the risks raised might not create a big damage to the project so they may be bearable risks.

Risks are events that would hinder the progress of a project such as lack of resources, lack of total participation of intended beneficiaries. Assumptions are what we expect that should or will happen with out any evidence or facts to support it. This leads to biases in project implementation. Risks and assumptions should be noted in project design and before M and E plans are designed so as to enable the project implements have knowledge and response strategies encase they occur.

An assumption is a statement that you assume to be true. Without assuming certain things planning would be impossible, as we never know for certain how the future will look like.
A risk is an event that could happen with a notable probability and could affect the outcome of your project substantially.

A risk is defined as an uncertain threat that, in case of occurring, could have a negative impact in the completion of the Goal or Activity.
An assumption, on the other side, is the necessary condition that will enable the successful completion of the Goal or Activity.

During the design phase, can't there be a small survey with the target population to make more informed risks and assumptions for the project?

If you find many risks and assumptions, is it possible that the project won’t succeed? Would we have to rethink the project?

How do identify which factors (risks) are most necessary so we don’t lose focus on the project objective, so we don’t expand too much and unnecessarily?

For example, in the case of MEH ... not only family and cultural factors could affect the girls' businesses, but also how to guarantee that the loans really go to the project to start a business and not to spend it in other things. If they don’t have prior experience in businesses, how would they know how to initiate one? What kind would be more suitable for them? How can you ensure that the girls businesses will be successful? Receiving microloans really changes their lives?

In my project ... I consider that there are too many things that can be a risk for the project, for example the time it takes for a plant to grow and be consumed; if people have no interest in investing “time and effort” in caring for the garden, to be able to access healthier foods; that they don’t want to change their habits and prefer junk food and soft drinks because it gives them a feeling of "being full" and it tastes better.

Climate is another really important factor to consider (rainy or cold seasons it may affect plant growth). Also, regarding where the garden is physically located, does it receive enough light? Does it receive enough water and nutrients?

Even if you have prior knowledge about some risks in the project, you will not always be able to plan in advance how to deal with them so that they do not affect the result of the project

I believe that small surveys with the target population (future beneficiaries) prior to the initiation of the project will not only help identify the real needs but also guarantee that the approach is correct.

I always used to be confused defining Risks and Assumptions. Now it is too clear to me. I am grateful!
Wonderful! it means the course is working well. It is not only you, but there are many students who generally face challenge in distinguishing both the terminologies

A log frame when designing a project should include the following:
●The project activities
● The project's short term and long term goals
● How progress towards goals will be measured
● Risks that might prevent you from reaching your goals

This module clearly explains that identifying risk and assumptions is one of the important part of logframe as well as project summary. Identifying risk and assumptions helps the project officials to put aside their biases. Personally, this session was very satisfying for me as it helps me to understand the boundary line difference between risks and assumptions.

Thanks for your elaboration of the concepts. It helped me to gain better understanding.

Logical framework it is an important tool for project monitoring and evaluation as well as project planning due to the fact that it helps to provide information about the key components of the project in a clear concise, logical and systematic way. Thinking through all factors that should be considered for planning successful project. Log frame explains how project will function.

I wish there was a worksheet for the if and then statements prior to submitting the final Project Summary and Risks and Assumptions chart.

the risks and assumptions to this project could be:
the girls might not be interested in getting a loan
there might be language barrier in terms of how the message is delivered resulting in the information of not being captured correctly thereby causing some of the girls not get the right information.
some girls might be interested only because of what they can get out which might result in spending the micro funds onto personal things.
perhaps the location to establish a micro loan business might not be there
there might not be a market for this as some girls might come from rural areas.

@BodrulAlam said in Module 2 Discussion: Risks and Assumptions:

This module clearly explains that identifying risk and assumptions is one of the important part of logframe as well as project summary. Identifying risk and assumptions helps the project officials to put aside their biases. Personally, this session was very satisfying for me as it helps me to understand the boundary line difference between risks and assumptions.

This topic gave a clear understanding of how log frames are designed. i also learned a lot .

Identifying and understanding of Risks and Assumptions of the project is essential as it helps and prompts the project owners to come up with strategies that mitigates the risks and helps to improve project success.

Risk and assumptions can be very crucial to success of a project. I think a few things to keep in mind are the empty vessel fallacy and behavior change theories. The empty vessel fallacy tells us that simply providing information is not enough to have people change their behaviors. Applying behavior change theories can help us understand the risk and assumptions and back up our assertions with theories.

Hello, I have a question . So what happens if I couldn't not foresee the risks and assumptions and they end up affecting the core goal of the project?

Logical framework it is an important tool for project monitoring and evaluation as well as project planning due to the fact that it helps to provide information about the key components of the project in a clear concise, logical and systematic way. Thinking through all factors that should be considered for planning successful project. Log frame explains how project will function.

Setting of unrealistic targets is a result of a M& E officer to not research on adequate information about the the particular targeted indicator, however there are several ways on which you may fetch information of which will assist the M&E officer in setting their targets; those ways may be: seeking for an expert opinion, review on the previous similar projects, observing on the historical trend or trend analysis.

Logical framework it is an important tool for project monitoring and evaluation as well as project planning due to the fact that it helps to provide information about the key components of the project in a clear concise, logical and systematic way. Thinking through all factors that should be considered for planning successful project. Log frame explains how project will function.

Setting of unrealistic targets is a result of a M& E officer to not research on adequate information about the the particular targeted indicator, however there are several ways on which you may fetch information of which will assist the M&E officer in setting their targets; those ways may be: seeking for an expert opinion, review on the previous similar projects, observing on the historical trend or trend analysis.

Adequately identifying risks and assumptions during project designing is a pointer to the success of one's project implementation. Considering this important reality, I look forward to learning and attaining expertise in identifying and mitigating risks and assumptions in projects

In addition to your very valid suggestions is the conduct of a needs assessment as it provides one with a holistic picture of the problems including possible risks that can pose challenges in successful implementation of planned interventions

Your points are valid and well presented. Well done!

Sometimes it can be challenging to identify enough risks and assumptions for each step in the logframe because we might have missed out important ones.

Risks are things outside of one's control that might disrupt the project plan.
Assumptions are one's biases, things believed without much evidence.

Am finding out that this subject of M&E in general is quite involving and its quite different from what of project management am used to.

At the start I thought that a logframe is something one person can do but its not possible especially this part of Risks & Assumptions it requires a team to execute it.

I wonder if formative research is same as desk review research....

Logical framework it is an important tool for project monitoring and evaluation as well as project planning due to the fact that it helps to provide information about the key components of the project in a clear concise, logical and systematic way. Thinking through all factors that should be considered for planning successful project. Log frame explains how project will function.

Setting of unrealistic targets is a result of a M& E officer to not research on adequate information about the the particular targeted indicator, however there are several ways on which you may fetch information of which will assist the M&E officer in setting their targets; those ways may be: seeking for an expert opinion, review on the previous similar projects, observing on the historical trend or trend analysis.

As monitoring and evaluation officer it is imperative to be sufficiently equipped with data collection methods , tools skills so as to be in a position to collect the accurate and precise information for your developed indicators to be measured

Assumptions

• These are the unproven connections between levels in a design hierarchy.
  Identifying assumptions helps in determining whether the project is viable or not. It helps identify opportunities for integrated programming.

Risks

• Risks are effects of uncertainty on the objectives. These are potential logical barriers to achieve the objectives for each level in the design hierarchy.
  Identifying risks gives time to make deliberate decisions about the best way to move forward.

the risks and assumption part deepen my understanding in M&E field since you have to know things that might hinder your desired outcome and impact. and i will apply in my project to be sure that the desired result was attained.

Assessing of Risk is the major key before the implementation of projects, as if we would like to do our best and implement our project successfully on obtain our goals

Assumptions

• These are the unproven connections between levels in a design hierarchy.
  Identifying assumptions helps in determining whether the project is viable or not. It helps identify opportunities for integrated programming.

Risks

• Risks are effects of uncertainty on the objectives. These are potential logical barriers to achieve the objectives for each level in the design hierarchy.
  Identifying risks gives time to make deliberate decisions about the best way to move forward.

Unrealistic targets
This are targets that are either very hard to attain or unattainable. This could be as a result of not discussing and reviewing donor targets, not analysing resources and budget, missing start date, not analysing past information about similar projects, not analysing historical data and trends, not having sufficient baseline data or research.
`Donors might be reluctant to fund project, demoralise team members, or lead to project failure.

An assumption is a statement that you assume to be true. These are things that we cannot be sure that they are 100% correct because they are not backed by facts or data.

These are factors that are outside your control. It is an event that could happen with a notable probability and could affect the outcome of your project substantially. You have to take risks into account when planning your project as they might change the entire setup if the event actually occurs. They might even end your entire project if they occur

Risks : The possibility of an event that may cause damage.
Mitigation is the implementation of measures intended to reduce the damage associated with natural risks or generated by human activities.

HOW WE CAN FACE OF RISKS?

Identifying risks and assumptions serves to assess whether the Goals and Activities proposed are realistic and achievable in the given time frame and within the given available human and financial resources.
In this context, a risk is defined as an uncertain threat that, in case of occurring, could have a negative impact in the completion of the Goal or Activity. An assumption, on the other side, is the necessary condition that will enable the successful completion of the Goal or Activity.
In order to avoid repetition and redundancy, risks and assumptions should be defined at two levels: general and specific level.

Identifying risks and assumptions serves to assess whether the Goals and Activities proposed are realistic and achievable in the given time frame and within the given available human and financial resources.
In this context, a risk is defined as an uncertain threat that, in case of occurring, could have a negative impact in the completion of the Goal or Activity. An assumption, on the other side, is the necessary condition that will enable the successful completion of the Goal or Activity.
In order to avoid repetition and redundancy, risks and assumptions should be defined at two levels: general and specific level.

thinking about Risks and assumptions is crucial for the success of a project. when idintified before, it will be easy for the staff working on the project to be proactive.

thinking about Risks and assumptions is crucial for the success of a project. when idintified before, it will be easy for the staff working on the project to be proactive.

if they end up affecting the goal of your project, what would happen is that you wont be able to achieve your desired goal. that's why we should be very careful while thinking about risks and assumptions

@BorameyS said in Module 2 Discussion: Risks and Assumptions:

Sometimes it can be challenging to identify enough risks and assumptions for each step in the logframe because we might have missed out important ones.

you are right, finding risks and assumptions is a really challenging , yet important task in the the project planning and monitoring. this task is more effective when done by a team.

Good course

Very correct

When you design a project, it is important to find the risks and assumptions before the project starts.

usually, Risks can impact negatively to the project expected outcomes, if not well addressed before the onset of the project, Risks always must be discussed and figures out. must be also put in place mechanisms to control if arises any risk during project implementation.
IF and then Assumptions must be used, during the preparation of Log frame, it can give wider space to think what will happen during the implementation of the project

usually, Risks can impact negatively to the project expected outcomes, if not well addressed before the onset of the project, Risks always must be discussed and figures out. must be also put in place mechanisms to control if arises any risk during project implementation.
IF and then Assumptions must be used, during the preparation of Log frame, it can give wider space to think what will hapen during the implementation of the project

An assumption is a statement that you assume to be true. Without assuming certain things planning would be impossible, as we never know for certain how the future will look like. We have to assume our government keeps working, our organization will keep existing and the weather will follow its usual pattern. Sometimes we look at these things as if they were facts, but in reality, they are just assumptions, as we cannot be 100% sure. Here are a couple of examples of assumptions in a project proposal:

All building materials will be available in the market before the project start
The legal framework will not change drastically in the near future
The pattern of rain will not change in the near future
A risk is an assumption with a higher level of failure. It is an event that could happen with a notable probability and could affect the outcome of your project substantially. You have to take risks into account when planning your project as they might change the entire setup if the event actually occurs. They might even end your entire project if they occur. Here are a couple of examples of risks in a project proposal:

After an election, a different political party is in charge that does not support your agenda
Natural catastrophes like floods or landslides hamper the success of your project
The pattern of rain will change in the near future
As you can see we used the example of changing rain patterns in both sections. Traditionally, it was safe to assume weather patterns would not change and are reliable. With current developments like climate change, this has increasingly become a risk though, as the probability of it happening has increased substantially. For continental countries, it might still be ok to assume the weather will stay similar, for countries that battle drought or some island states it is definitely a risk. Depending on where in the world you are, weather patterns can fit into both categories.

Donors want to know about the assumptions you make and the risks you identified to evaluate if your project is worth supporting. If the risks of failure are too high, they might not fund you. At the same time, if your assumptions are not logical, this might also hurt your prospects of getting funded.