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Risks and assumptions are issues that may or may not arise when planning your logframe. For example in the case where I want to start and ngo for lympedema patients to assist in cost reduction my assumption may be that there actually people that need financial assistance. However, I have no evidence to support this. Also I'm not sure whether by starting this project I will reach as many people as I may anticipate. How many people would be willing to take the funds? How many people are experiencing financial stain due to the condition? My assumption is that by going on social media I will get that data but how sure I'm I that by starting the organization I will draw out as many people as intended. So the outcome might not be as expected based on those biases.

During the design phase, can't there be a small survey with the target population to make more informed risks and assumptions for the project?

Risks and assumptions help us remove biases and other factors (internal or external) that may hurt our projects. If done properly they help strengthen project impacts. To generate risks and assumptions, we can re-visit old projects'log frames, ask directly from the beneficiaries and by finally looking at the current activities to check the common assumptions already listed.

Risks and assumptions are potential factors of a project success. Before going to implement a project activities, risks and assumption should identify. It will help to plan alternatively to avoid the risks and assumptions. Possible issues should scan out at the designing phase of a project through theoretical or structural research. In many cases it is identified that, few un-assured cases arrive during project implementation. M&E plan could find the issues and analyze the gaps.....

Assumptions and risks identification could be a great deal with the casual effect among the stages of log frame. If it is behind, the purposes of the project (Objectives) will be not possible to reach.

Risks and assumptions need to be addressed carefully. Some of the risks raised might not create a big damage to the project so they may be bearable risks.

Risks are events that would hinder the progress of a project such as lack of resources, lack of total participation of intended beneficiaries. Assumptions are what we expect that should or will happen with out any evidence or facts to support it. This leads to biases in project implementation. Risks and assumptions should be noted in project design and before M and E plans are designed so as to enable the project implements have knowledge and response strategies encase they occur.

An assumption is a statement that you assume to be true. Without assuming certain things planning would be impossible, as we never know for certain how the future will look like.
A risk is an event that could happen with a notable probability and could affect the outcome of your project substantially.

A risk is defined as an uncertain threat that, in case of occurring, could have a negative impact in the completion of the Goal or Activity.
An assumption, on the other side, is the necessary condition that will enable the successful completion of the Goal or Activity.

During the design phase, can't there be a small survey with the target population to make more informed risks and assumptions for the project?

If you find many risks and assumptions, is it possible that the project won’t succeed? Would we have to rethink the project?

How do identify which factors (risks) are most necessary so we don’t lose focus on the project objective, so we don’t expand too much and unnecessarily?

For example, in the case of MEH ... not only family and cultural factors could affect the girls' businesses, but also how to guarantee that the loans really go to the project to start a business and not to spend it in other things. If they don’t have prior experience in businesses, how would they know how to initiate one? What kind would be more suitable for them? How can you ensure that the girls businesses will be successful? Receiving microloans really changes their lives?

In my project ... I consider that there are too many things that can be a risk for the project, for example the time it takes for a plant to grow and be consumed; if people have no interest in investing “time and effort” in caring for the garden, to be able to access healthier foods; that they don’t want to change their habits and prefer junk food and soft drinks because it gives them a feeling of "being full" and it tastes better.

Climate is another really important factor to consider (rainy or cold seasons it may affect plant growth). Also, regarding where the garden is physically located, does it receive enough light? Does it receive enough water and nutrients?

Even if you have prior knowledge about some risks in the project, you will not always be able to plan in advance how to deal with them so that they do not affect the result of the project

I believe that small surveys with the target population (future beneficiaries) prior to the initiation of the project will not only help identify the real needs but also guarantee that the approach is correct.

I always used to be confused defining Risks and Assumptions. Now it is too clear to me. I am grateful!
Wonderful! it means the course is working well. It is not only you, but there are many students who generally face challenge in distinguishing both the terminologies

A log frame when designing a project should include the following:
●The project activities
● The project's short term and long term goals
● How progress towards goals will be measured
● Risks that might prevent you from reaching your goals

This module clearly explains that identifying risk and assumptions is one of the important part of logframe as well as project summary. Identifying risk and assumptions helps the project officials to put aside their biases. Personally, this session was very satisfying for me as it helps me to understand the boundary line difference between risks and assumptions.

Thanks for your elaboration of the concepts. It helped me to gain better understanding.

Logical framework it is an important tool for project monitoring and evaluation as well as project planning due to the fact that it helps to provide information about the key components of the project in a clear concise, logical and systematic way. Thinking through all factors that should be considered for planning successful project. Log frame explains how project will function.

I wish there was a worksheet for the if and then statements prior to submitting the final Project Summary and Risks and Assumptions chart.

the risks and assumptions to this project could be:
the girls might not be interested in getting a loan
there might be language barrier in terms of how the message is delivered resulting in the information of not being captured correctly thereby causing some of the girls not get the right information.
some girls might be interested only because of what they can get out which might result in spending the micro funds onto personal things.
perhaps the location to establish a micro loan business might not be there
there might not be a market for this as some girls might come from rural areas.

@BodrulAlam said in Module 2 Discussion: Risks and Assumptions:

This module clearly explains that identifying risk and assumptions is one of the important part of logframe as well as project summary. Identifying risk and assumptions helps the project officials to put aside their biases. Personally, this session was very satisfying for me as it helps me to understand the boundary line difference between risks and assumptions.

This topic gave a clear understanding of how log frames are designed. i also learned a lot .

Identifying and understanding of Risks and Assumptions of the project is essential as it helps and prompts the project owners to come up with strategies that mitigates the risks and helps to improve project success.

Risk and assumptions can be very crucial to success of a project. I think a few things to keep in mind are the empty vessel fallacy and behavior change theories. The empty vessel fallacy tells us that simply providing information is not enough to have people change their behaviors. Applying behavior change theories can help us understand the risk and assumptions and back up our assertions with theories.

Hello, I have a question . So what happens if I couldn't not foresee the risks and assumptions and they end up affecting the core goal of the project?

Logical framework it is an important tool for project monitoring and evaluation as well as project planning due to the fact that it helps to provide information about the key components of the project in a clear concise, logical and systematic way. Thinking through all factors that should be considered for planning successful project. Log frame explains how project will function.

Setting of unrealistic targets is a result of a M& E officer to not research on adequate information about the the particular targeted indicator, however there are several ways on which you may fetch information of which will assist the M&E officer in setting their targets; those ways may be: seeking for an expert opinion, review on the previous similar projects, observing on the historical trend or trend analysis.

Logical framework it is an important tool for project monitoring and evaluation as well as project planning due to the fact that it helps to provide information about the key components of the project in a clear concise, logical and systematic way. Thinking through all factors that should be considered for planning successful project. Log frame explains how project will function.

Setting of unrealistic targets is a result of a M& E officer to not research on adequate information about the the particular targeted indicator, however there are several ways on which you may fetch information of which will assist the M&E officer in setting their targets; those ways may be: seeking for an expert opinion, review on the previous similar projects, observing on the historical trend or trend analysis.

Adequately identifying risks and assumptions during project designing is a pointer to the success of one's project implementation. Considering this important reality, I look forward to learning and attaining expertise in identifying and mitigating risks and assumptions in projects

In addition to your very valid suggestions is the conduct of a needs assessment as it provides one with a holistic picture of the problems including possible risks that can pose challenges in successful implementation of planned interventions

Your points are valid and well presented. Well done!

Sometimes it can be challenging to identify enough risks and assumptions for each step in the logframe because we might have missed out important ones.

Risks are things outside of one's control that might disrupt the project plan.
Assumptions are one's biases, things believed without much evidence.

Am finding out that this subject of M&E in general is quite involving and its quite different from what of project management am used to.

At the start I thought that a logframe is something one person can do but its not possible especially this part of Risks & Assumptions it requires a team to execute it.

I wonder if formative research is same as desk review research....

Logical framework it is an important tool for project monitoring and evaluation as well as project planning due to the fact that it helps to provide information about the key components of the project in a clear concise, logical and systematic way. Thinking through all factors that should be considered for planning successful project. Log frame explains how project will function.

Setting of unrealistic targets is a result of a M& E officer to not research on adequate information about the the particular targeted indicator, however there are several ways on which you may fetch information of which will assist the M&E officer in setting their targets; those ways may be: seeking for an expert opinion, review on the previous similar projects, observing on the historical trend or trend analysis.

As monitoring and evaluation officer it is imperative to be sufficiently equipped with data collection methods , tools skills so as to be in a position to collect the accurate and precise information for your developed indicators to be measured

Assumptions

• These are the unproven connections between levels in a design hierarchy.
  Identifying assumptions helps in determining whether the project is viable or not. It helps identify opportunities for integrated programming.

Risks

• Risks are effects of uncertainty on the objectives. These are potential logical barriers to achieve the objectives for each level in the design hierarchy.
  Identifying risks gives time to make deliberate decisions about the best way to move forward.

the risks and assumption part deepen my understanding in M&E field since you have to know things that might hinder your desired outcome and impact. and i will apply in my project to be sure that the desired result was attained.

Assessing of Risk is the major key before the implementation of projects, as if we would like to do our best and implement our project successfully on obtain our goals

Assumptions

• These are the unproven connections between levels in a design hierarchy.
  Identifying assumptions helps in determining whether the project is viable or not. It helps identify opportunities for integrated programming.

Risks

• Risks are effects of uncertainty on the objectives. These are potential logical barriers to achieve the objectives for each level in the design hierarchy.
  Identifying risks gives time to make deliberate decisions about the best way to move forward.

Unrealistic targets
This are targets that are either very hard to attain or unattainable. This could be as a result of not discussing and reviewing donor targets, not analysing resources and budget, missing start date, not analysing past information about similar projects, not analysing historical data and trends, not having sufficient baseline data or research.
`Donors might be reluctant to fund project, demoralise team members, or lead to project failure.

An assumption is a statement that you assume to be true. These are things that we cannot be sure that they are 100% correct because they are not backed by facts or data.

These are factors that are outside your control. It is an event that could happen with a notable probability and could affect the outcome of your project substantially. You have to take risks into account when planning your project as they might change the entire setup if the event actually occurs. They might even end your entire project if they occur

Risks : The possibility of an event that may cause damage.
Mitigation is the implementation of measures intended to reduce the damage associated with natural risks or generated by human activities.

HOW WE CAN FACE OF RISKS?

Identifying risks and assumptions serves to assess whether the Goals and Activities proposed are realistic and achievable in the given time frame and within the given available human and financial resources.
In this context, a risk is defined as an uncertain threat that, in case of occurring, could have a negative impact in the completion of the Goal or Activity. An assumption, on the other side, is the necessary condition that will enable the successful completion of the Goal or Activity.
In order to avoid repetition and redundancy, risks and assumptions should be defined at two levels: general and specific level.

Identifying risks and assumptions serves to assess whether the Goals and Activities proposed are realistic and achievable in the given time frame and within the given available human and financial resources.
In this context, a risk is defined as an uncertain threat that, in case of occurring, could have a negative impact in the completion of the Goal or Activity. An assumption, on the other side, is the necessary condition that will enable the successful completion of the Goal or Activity.
In order to avoid repetition and redundancy, risks and assumptions should be defined at two levels: general and specific level.

thinking about Risks and assumptions is crucial for the success of a project. when idintified before, it will be easy for the staff working on the project to be proactive.

thinking about Risks and assumptions is crucial for the success of a project. when idintified before, it will be easy for the staff working on the project to be proactive.

if they end up affecting the goal of your project, what would happen is that you wont be able to achieve your desired goal. that's why we should be very careful while thinking about risks and assumptions

@BorameyS said in Module 2 Discussion: Risks and Assumptions:

Sometimes it can be challenging to identify enough risks and assumptions for each step in the logframe because we might have missed out important ones.

you are right, finding risks and assumptions is a really challenging , yet important task in the the project planning and monitoring. this task is more effective when done by a team.

Good course

Very correct

When you design a project, it is important to find the risks and assumptions before the project starts.

usually, Risks can impact negatively to the project expected outcomes, if not well addressed before the onset of the project, Risks always must be discussed and figures out. must be also put in place mechanisms to control if arises any risk during project implementation.
IF and then Assumptions must be used, during the preparation of Log frame, it can give wider space to think what will happen during the implementation of the project

usually, Risks can impact negatively to the project expected outcomes, if not well addressed before the onset of the project, Risks always must be discussed and figures out. must be also put in place mechanisms to control if arises any risk during project implementation.
IF and then Assumptions must be used, during the preparation of Log frame, it can give wider space to think what will hapen during the implementation of the project

An assumption is a statement that you assume to be true. Without assuming certain things planning would be impossible, as we never know for certain how the future will look like. We have to assume our government keeps working, our organization will keep existing and the weather will follow its usual pattern. Sometimes we look at these things as if they were facts, but in reality, they are just assumptions, as we cannot be 100% sure. Here are a couple of examples of assumptions in a project proposal:

All building materials will be available in the market before the project start
The legal framework will not change drastically in the near future
The pattern of rain will not change in the near future
A risk is an assumption with a higher level of failure. It is an event that could happen with a notable probability and could affect the outcome of your project substantially. You have to take risks into account when planning your project as they might change the entire setup if the event actually occurs. They might even end your entire project if they occur. Here are a couple of examples of risks in a project proposal:

After an election, a different political party is in charge that does not support your agenda
Natural catastrophes like floods or landslides hamper the success of your project
The pattern of rain will change in the near future
As you can see we used the example of changing rain patterns in both sections. Traditionally, it was safe to assume weather patterns would not change and are reliable. With current developments like climate change, this has increasingly become a risk though, as the probability of it happening has increased substantially. For continental countries, it might still be ok to assume the weather will stay similar, for countries that battle drought or some island states it is definitely a risk. Depending on where in the world you are, weather patterns can fit into both categories.

Donors want to know about the assumptions you make and the risks you identified to evaluate if your project is worth supporting. If the risks of failure are too high, they might not fund you. At the same time, if your assumptions are not logical, this might also hurt your prospects of getting funded.

How do assumptions affect a project

Is it proper to test assumptions directly from beneficiaries?

Risk and assumption are factors that directly and indirectly influence your path along the log frame. This implies that risk and assumption could affect you at any level of the log frame ; It could be at; input, out put, out come and impact level .
so to reduce the harm that could happen the project designer should critically identify and list the possible risks and assumptions from the outset and suggest the possible solution.
To do this previous similar event review and discussion with beneficiaries are paramount.

Hi, I wanted to ask about the risks and assumption in the log frame. Do we also have to put the preventive strategy as we identified the risks? Thank you

Hi, I wanted to ask about the risks and assumption in the log frame. Do we also have to put the preventive strategy as we identified the risks? Thank you

Agree with your thoughts! I think defining and analyzing the risks and assumption is one of the crucial part of planning a project.

The risks and assumptions column of a logframe lists all the things that might disrupt your plan. For each level of your logframe - inputs, outputs, outcomes, and impact - you ask: what could go wrong? Is there anything that might prevent you from providing the inputs? And, if you provide the inputs, are you sure that this will lead to the outputs?

Remember the if/then statements that we made at the beginning of this module? Here is an example to remind you:

IF you have new knowledge, THEN you will perform better on job applications.

Writing your project summary as series of if/then statements will help you spot risks and assumptions. For example, after we read this if/then statement we can ask:

What type of knowledge will help you perform better on job applications?

Is knowledge enough to help you perform better on job applications?

Let’s identify risks and assumptions for MEH’s outcomes, by combining the outcomes with the outputs in an if/then statement:

IF girls receive microloans, THEN girls will start new businesses or upgrade equipment in their existing businesses.

We have combined the outcomes with the level below: the outputs. Now we can ask: are we completely sure that this is true? Are there any things outside of MEH’s control that might keep girls from starting or upgrading businesses?

Unrealistic Targets:
This is as a result of inadequate information and wrong data collection.
When the collation of data and information are not properly searched for, e.g from the experts in the topic, from previous work, or gather information in the case where the particular topic has not been done. because the target is unrealistic as such the project which the target is prepared will not be achievable.

You're right ! Working as a team definitely is more effective especially in identifying risks and assumptions.

Risks and assumptions are very important in any project because it equips the person with adequate knowledge so that the desired impacts are achieved.
The knowledge of these factors ensures that the person is prepared to deal with these unexpected and that they will not get the person unaware.

very true,

I agree with you that identifying risks and assumptions is a very important, aspect in the successful implementation of project.

You're right ! Working as a team definitely is more effective especially in identifying risks and assumptions.

Log frame is really confusing especially the aspect of output and outcome.

At first I thought input to be money, ideas, resources until the input for the project of getting a good job became "taking a course" and my Project deals with the sensitization of the communities rated to have declined in HIV/AIDS and covid19 adherence to mode of contractions and also preventive measures.

Between my project and this project example, the inputs vary. Could you explain!

Decisions must not be based on assumption

It is really important to have a balance between planning a project and listing down risks and assumptions. While it is important to maintain a sense of optimism, it is still important to take into account every variable and externalities so that could achieve the impact that you want.

It is really important to have a balance between planning a project and listing down risks and assumptions. While it is important to maintain a sense of optimism, it is still important to take into account every variable and externalities so that could achieve the impact that you want.

Riak and assumption is about believes, there is no evidence about it that's why it considered to bais.

How can one mitigate the unexpected risks?

Risks are things outside of control that might disrupt project plan while biases are the things believed but not evidence-based.
Identifying them before the commencement of project helps to proffer solutions to overcome them before hand to enhance smooth implementation.

By carrying out proper planning the organisation can be able to identify and avoid potential risks which may arise during undertaking of their projects. Therefore well researched and arranged planning can be able to avoid and offer solutions to potential risks that may arise in a project
Assumptions
Although some of our assumptions may be right, most of the time they are lead by our personal beliefs and biases on certain issues and therefore should not be reliable

By carrying out proper planning the organisation can be able to identify and avoid potential risks which may arise during undertaking of their projects. Therefore well researched and arranged planning can be able to avoid and offer solutions to potential risks that may arise in a project
Assumptions
Although some of our assumptions may be right, most of the time they are lead by our personal beliefs and biases on certain issues and therefore should not be reliable

Assumptions may at times be helpful under certain scenarios where you actually know about the project or you have experience about a particular project, but i still vote for data reliance rather than our assumptions and judgements

Assumptions may at times be helpful under certain scenarios where you actually know about the project or you have experience about a particular project, but i still vote for data reliance rather than our assumptions and judgements

Risks which aren't identified can lead to great losses for projects,therefore a well structured M and E plan should be able to spot this potential risk and offer solutions for them
Assumptions
Personal assumptions and biases should not be a guide to decision making, therefore one should use data instead

In order to achieve a successful project design, it is of great importance that we factor risks and assumptions into every level of activity in our project lograme.
We live in a world that is constantly dynamic in nature with respect to the many events that pervades our communities.
Without a fore plan of risks and assumptions factored into every phase of our project design logframe; an identification of indicators which can measure to to determine whether we are making progress in our project, such a project is doomed to fail.
Therefore, it is mandatory that, an M&E expert must plan, think, and forecast in the fore view of a detailed project logfame.

A risk is an uncertain threat that, in case of occurring, could have a negative impact in the completion of the Goal or Activity and the achievement of the goal and objective. An assumption, on the other side, is the necessary condition that will enable the successful completion of the Goal or Activity.

Generally, Risks and Assumptions are external factors that the project is not responsible for, which however can affect the project implementation significantly.

Risks and Assumptions are very important in achieving the intended project output and outcome, and ultimately the impact. It is therefore, critical to identify the risks and monitor them as they turn to issues throughout the project cycle as those could make or mar the success of any project. It also helps to manage the expectations of the sponsors and key stakeholders.

Identifying risks ahead of time is a sure way to make much progress on a project and to make the most of time without unnecessary delays.

Mercier bien pour le cours qui est vraiment très intéressant pour moi. J'ai juste quelques questions sur la partie impact de projet est ce qu'il peut avoir trois ou quatre Voir même 7?

Risks and assumptions is a step that left many people people not go forward in designing a project.

Risk is a concept that denotes a potential negative impact that may arise from a future event and it beyond anyone's control. The possibilities involve loss, catastrophe and an undesirable outcome. In case of its occurrence its important to have a management team.

Risks are events or conditions that may occur in the process of the project implementation which are beyond control and cause negative harm. Its important to have a Risk management team on board that will reduce or eliminate the exposure of loss.

Setting target not only motivates the team members but also make work easier.

Risks and assumptions should be managed wee, because if they materialize it means that they were not well prepared for therefore coming up with solutions way ahead of them will minimize their effect to the project.

Let’s take an example of a common statement that is included in many Project Definitions – that the resources needed for this project will be available when needed. What kind of a statement is this? Most people would say it is an assumption. After all, when a project starts, you always assume you will get the resources you need.

However, is it really an assumption? Can you imagine starting a project where the people and equipment were not available and there was a realistic possibility that they would not be ready when you need them – perhaps because another project needed to finish first? It is not too difficult to imagine that scenario. In that case, the same statement would definitely be a risk – not an assumption.

The same statement might be an assumption or a risk depending on the circumstances of your particular project. There is some degree of uncertainty to an assumption. If the event is negative and there is a low probability that it will happen, it can be stated as an assumption. If the event is positive and there is a high likelihood it will happen, it is also an assumption. One way to identify important assumptions is to perform a risk assessment and look at all the low-risk items. Most of these low risks are not worth mentioning, but some will have significant implications if events do not turn out as you think. These are the ones that you can document as assumptions.

There are two key characteristics of risks and assumptions. First, there must be some uncertainty to the event. If there is 100% chance of an event occurring, it is simply a fact. If there is a 0% chance of the event occurring, it is fiction. Neither are risks or assumptions.

Second, assumptions and risks are both outside the total control of the project team. If the event is within the control of the project team it is neither an assumption nor a risk. It should simply be managed to make it happen.

Risks and assumptions are very crucial in project implementation. I'm tending to think they might impede progress if not thoroughly looked into.

Very true

usually, Risks can impact negatively to the project expected outcomes, if not well addressed before the onset of the project, Risks always must be discussed and figures out. must be also put in place mechanisms to control if arises any risk during project implementation.
IF and then Assumptions must be used, during the preparation of Log frame, it can give wider space to think what will happen during the implementation of the project

Risk and assumptions are very important factors to consider when creating a log frame. Risk and assumption factors needed to be understood and stated clearly inorder to guide the project. Once the project risk and assumptions are understood, it will serve as a guide to make better decisions that will help in achieving project goal or impact in any case, risk and assumptions arises during the project cycle.

Ribolded textsks are the things that are going to disturb the goals or end results of one's project . Risks and assumptions will be the activities that one can not control that will negetively affect ones project goals a

Risk is the uncertainty assumption that hinders the project. The risk can be both internal and external. Eternal Risk is that can manage direct during the activities. while external risk beyond the hand of management

A risk is an uncertain threat that, in case of occurring, could have a negative impact in the completion of the Goal or Activity. An assumption is the necessary condition that will enable the successful completion of the Goal.

The main difference between an assumption and a risk is that when we make an assumption we expect that assumption to happen , with a risk we anticipate that the risk might happen and thus negatively impact our project. If the risk doesn't materialize then the project will benefit.

Risk and assumption are key elements in a successful project design.

Yeah it is so helpful undoubtedly. It creates a new horizon of thinking

Yeah it is so helpful undoubtedly. It creates a new horizon of thinking

Is there any technical problem or the discussion question is not applicable?

The risk and assumptions have been presented well in this module if anyone need

The module was real help by now i can manage to produce my own logframe