My Communities

Risk and Assumptions must be well defined. They bring out our biases and help us to effectively manage them.

Risks and assumptions are very important in LogForm because this will help get ready for any unforeseen circumstances in the project.

Although we carefully formulate the M&E plan with role and responsibility, the several internal and external factors can hinder the implementation of the project successfully. Therefore, during the M&E planning process, we need to carefully take into account possible risks and assumptions and then we can also formulate the contingency plan and risk management plan to reduce possible risk during implementation process.

Monitoring and evaluation (M&E) is an essential process for measuring the performance and effectiveness of programs, policies, and projects. However, M&E is not without risks and assumptions that can affect its accuracy and usefulness. Here are some of the key risks and assumptions in M&E:

Risk of bias: M&E data can be influenced by bias, either consciously or unconsciously, which can distort the results and lead to incorrect conclusions.

Assumption of causality: M&E assumes that there is a cause-and-effect relationship between the program or policy and the outcomes. However, this assumption may not always hold true, and other factors may be responsible for the observed outcomes.

Risk of data quality: M&E relies on accurate and reliable data to produce meaningful results. However, data can be incomplete, inaccurate, or unreliable, leading to flawed conclusions.

Assumption of context: M&E assumes that the program or policy is implemented in the same way across different contexts. However, the effectiveness of the program may vary depending on the specific context, such as cultural or social factors.

Risk of unintended consequences: M&E may not capture unintended consequences of the program or policy, which can have negative impacts on the beneficiaries or the environment.

Assumption of uniformity: M&E assumes that the program or policy has the same impact on all beneficiaries. However, the impact may vary depending on factors such as age, gender, socio-economic status, or geographic location.

Risk of resource constraints: M&E requires resources, such as time, money, and personnel, which may be limited or insufficient to carry out a comprehensive evaluation.

It is important to recognize these risks and assumptions in M&E and take steps to mitigate them. This may involve using multiple data sources, involving stakeholders in the evaluation process, addressing biases, and considering the context and unintended consequences of the program or policy.

Imagine that you are planning a birthday party for your mom. You come up with a great idea: you are going to invite all of your mom’s childhood friends and surprise your mom with a big party. You are sure that this will delight your mom.

You tell your brother your plan. Right away he starts pointing out some problems.

What if mom’s childhood friends cannot travel to town?

What if mom does not want to see her childhood friends?

What if mom hates surprises?

What if mom would prefer a small party?

Perhaps you can think of a few more reasons why this plan might not work. While it can be annoying to hear these criticisms, your brother has done you a big favor: he has pointed out the risks and assumptions in your plan. Risks are the things outside of your control that might disrupt your plan. Assumptions are your biases: the things that you believe without much evidence.

Now that your brother has identified some risks and assumptions, you can take steps to avoid these problems: you can ask your mom how she feels about her childhood friends or set up travel arrangements for her friends in advance. During the party, you can monitor the situation to see how your mom is feeling. And if things do not go well, at least you will have a good idea about WHY they did not go well.

When you design a project, it is important to find the risks and assumptions before the project starts. In this section, we will explain how to do that.

I take time to appreciate the level o knowledge have gained on matters of risks and assumptions in this module, being a project manager its essential that we identify risks in advance so that they can be acted upon.

Risks are factors that are out of your control that may affect your project for instance; an increase in cost charges of inputs. Assumptions are things that we lack evidence of happening for example; donors will provide funds.

During the Logical Framework module 2: We have learnt that risks and assumptions are vital considerations in monitoring and evaluation as they aid in highlighting the socio-cultural challenges uncertainties, and limitations that may affect the success of a project.

Module 3: Unrealistic targets are the goals outside the resources of a project, which are unattainable.

Module 4: Different data collection tools are used in monitoring and evaluation. The tools helps us collect reliable, accurate and unbiased data.

I think that, as we have done during the module, it is good to detect the possible risks and assumptions that may be present in the project so that at the time of launching the project we know in advance what awaits us during the implementation phase of the project.

It is important to identify risks and assumptions when planning a logframe, as it helps to forsee things that may affect project implementation. Planning ahead of time will help avert the challenges the project may face. Taking inputs from the beneficiaries is important since the project's success largely depends on their inputs as well.

It is important to identify risks and assumptions when planning a logframe, as it helps to forsee things that may affect project implementation. Planning ahead of time will help avert the challenges the project may face. Taking inputs from the beneficiaries is important since the project's success largely depends on their inputs as well.

a risk is defined as an uncertain threat that, in case of occurring, could have a negative impact in the completion of the Goal or Activity. An assumption, on the other side, is the necessary condition that will enable the successful completion of the Goal or Activity.

• pupils mighty not attend school
• pupils mighty concentrate
• poor learning technique
• lack of materials

On Project design its vital to ensure list of assumptions are exhausted, this will enable the M&E plan avoid biases and possibly escape shortcoming of the project . This will provide an opportunity to Modify your indicators and workplan early in advance.
Additionally resources will be utilized effectively and efficiently.

Risks are factors that are out of your control that may affect your project for instance; an increase in cost charges of inputs. Assumptions are things that we lack evidence of happening for example; donors will provide funds.

Risk assumptions help on improving on program or project design , as well as implementation strategy

so how do we evaluate the magnitude of the effect of the risks in our assumptions?

really agree with this thought

Assumptions need to be tested or validated as they are without proof.

Risks can be greatest hindrance factor for the project once failed to be identified thus its gives an extra thinking to unearth them and have proper strategies to resolve their impact in the project.

Risk are the things outside of your control that might disrupt your plan for example what if the farmers are not ready to plant th trees.
Assumptions are my own biases what if the farmers are not ready to be trained.

hi, am very glad that i really learned and got lots of knowledge in module two(2) and am looking forward to gaining more knowledge as far as M&E is concerned.

Very interesting course for me ,
Thank you !

Risks and Assumptions are very important to change our activities. It gives logical thinking toward getting good outcomes and impact, and it helps to change our approach also

Risk and assumptions make us to believe our strength and weakness.

It is important to identify risks and assumptions when planning a logframe, as it helps to forsee things that may affect project implementation. Planning ahead of time will help avert the challenges the project may face. Taking inputs from the beneficiaries is important since the project's success largely depends on their inputs as well.

It is important to identify risks and assumptions when planning a logframe, as it helps to forsee things that may affect project implementation. Planning ahead of time will help avert the challenges the project may face. Taking inputs from the beneficiaries is important since the project's success largely depends on their inputs as well.

Risks and assumptions are crucial elements during the project design cycle because they help project managers to anticipate potential issues, allocate resources more efficiently, create a more accurate budget, and communicate more effectively with stakeholders. By carefully considering risks and assumptions during the project design cycle, project managers can set themselves up for success in delivering the project on time, within budget, and to the satisfaction of all stakeholders.

risks and assumptions are crucial elements during the project design cycle because they help project managers to anticipate potential issues, allocate resources more efficiently, create a more accurate budget, and communicate more effectively with stakeholders. By carefully considering risks and assumptions during the project design cycle, project managers can set themselves up for success in delivering the project on time, within budget, and to the satisfaction of all stakeholders.

Risks may cause project goals not to be met

Identifying risks and assumptions serves to assess whether the Goals and Activities proposed are realistic and achievable in the given time frame and within the given available human and financial resources.
In this context, a risk is defined as an uncertain threat that, in case of occurring, could have a negative impact in the completion of the Goal or Activity. An assumption, on the other side, is the necessary condition that will enable the successful completion of the Goal or Activity.

Creating a data collection tool involves designing a form or questionnaire that will help collect the necessary data for measuring specific indicators. The tool should be well-organized and easy to use to ensure that data is accurately collected. Before creating a data collection tool, it is essential to determine the purpose of the tool and the target audience. The design of the tool should be informed by the specific indicators to be measured, and the appropriate data collection method for each indicator should be selected. It is also important to pretest the tool to ensure that it is effective and efficient in collecting the desired data. Once the data collection tool is designed, data collectors should be trained on how to use the tool to ensure consistency and accuracy in data collection.

Interesting module and very well presented. I thought Peter's comments helped flesh out the overall concept. I originally had an issue, but upon reviewing it I saw that I had made a mistake. In the quiz, I read 'inputs' where I should have read 'impacts' so answered the question incorrectly. I was confused about this and intended to use it as a discussion point, but no need to now!

After looking at MEH's project, the risks and assumptions evaluated from it are;
The loans to be disbursed might not be enough for the girls or it can be diverted by top government officials.
The girls also might not be interested in taking the microloans or may not want to use it to grow their business so they can be financially stable. Other risks involved is that the loans might be taken and invested in the business and the business can also suffer losses.

90% of the girls that received the loans will have successful businesses
All the girls that received the loans will use them for businesses

More light has been shed on how to identify risks and assumptions and how they affect outcomes and impact of the project. Therefore, it is important to do a thorough formative research to encounter if not most of the risks and plan on how to evade them either by independent inputs to avoid bias.

M&E is an ongoing process which can change project implementation. You can only plan for major risks, unexpected ones will be used on upcoming projects as evidence.

IC3 Institute aims to empower full-time career counselors working with a school or a teacher identified by the school leadership to work in the career counseling function with skills, knowledge, and mindset toward providing college and career guidance for high school students. This would result in a career and college counseling department being set up in every high school and help students find purpose, and direction, or think in a gradual manner about the next important steps in their educational journey.

Assumptions: 1. Career counseling is a school-based activity.

2. An increase in quantity and quality of the program would influence student outcomes and their career readiness.
3. All high school educators will end up acquiring career counseling skills and will end up setting up Career counseling cell in their respective schools.

Girls might not get profits form their business

Risk are Factors that cannot be controlled but manageable

Assumptions are theories that have no proof of existence but are believed to have the ability to affect the project negatively

RISKS

1. Data integrity: Data can easily be lost, stolen, or corrupted due to human error, technical issues, or malicious intent.
2. Data accuracy: Poor data accuracy can lead to incorrect decisions or inaccurate conclusions.
3. Unreliable metrics: If the chosen metrics aren't reliable, then the results of the monitoring and evaluation may not be accurate or reliable.
4. Inadequate resources: Without adequate financial, personnel, and technological resources, it may be difficult to effectively monitor and evaluate a program.

ASSUMPTIONS

1. Program objectives are achievable: It is assumed that the program's objectives are achievable and can be measured.
2. Data is accurate and up-to-date: It is assumed that the data being collected is accurate and up-to-date.
3. Program staff has the necessary skills: It is assumed that program staff have the necessary skills and knowledge to execute the monitoring and evaluation activities.
4. Appropriate resources are available: It is assumed that adequate financial, personnel, and technological resources are available to implement the monitoring and evaluation activities.

The discussion on the Risks and Assumptions would greatly help in identifying possible factors that would affect our project mostly in a negative way. Through this, implementers may have the chance to formulate strategies in order to mitigate these risks and assumptions that could hamper the smooth project implementation.

• pupils mighty not attend school
• pupils mighty not concentrate
• poor learning technique
• lack of materials

Definining and identifying the risk and assumptions your project may encounter in the long run will go a long way in helping you to try and address them in advance by curating workable solutions especially for those that are within your control. It also helps to deconstruct biases giving room for evidence based approaches to the project.

Risks and assumptions are those conditions which are not under the control of your project or the organization. Usually donors want to know about them because they want to know what kind of external factors can hinder the project.
a risk is defined as an uncertain threat that, in case of occurring, could have a negative impact in the completion of the Goal or Activity. An assumption, on the other side, is the necessary condition that will enable the successful completion of the Goal or Activity.

I think the risks and assumptions component of the Logfram is key. What is interesting to me is the fact that risks and assumptions are either true or not. However, in the case where you are writing a proposal to solicit funds from donor organization when there is a call for application, the burden of prove is upon you to ensure that the risks and assumptions are factual and they are backed by facts.

I think the risks and assumptions component of the Logfram is key. What is interesting to me is the fact that risks and assumptions are either true or not. However, in the case where you are writing a proposal to solicit funds from donor organization when there is a call for application, the burden of prove is upon you to ensure that the risks and assumptions are factual and they are backed by facts.

There is no project that cannot encounter risks,Project manager and the operation team must figureout the possible risk that mght happen in their way inoder to plan a preventive measure.

Risk and Assumptions are Part of M&E Process to understand things will happen in the future like uncertainties, identified risk and so on.

Risk and assumptions are part of m&e because there's uncertainty and things that haven't prove

Risk and assumptions are part of m&e because there's uncertainty and things that haven't prove

Risks are identified and un-identified needs to monitor

strongly agree

@Dorcas_official said in Module 2 Discussion: Risks and Assumptions:

Risk are the things outside of your control that might disrupt your plan for example what if the farmers are not ready to plant th trees.
Assumptions are my own biases what if the farmers are not ready to be trained.

@Dorcas_official said in Module 2 Discussion: Risks and Assumptions:

Risk are the things outside of your control that might disrupt your plan for example what if the farmers are not ready to plant th trees.
Assumptions are my own biases what if the farmers are not ready to be trained.

@Dorcas_official said in Module 2 Discussion: Risks and Assumptions:

Risk are the things outside of your control that might disrupt your plan for example what if the farmers are not ready to plant th trees.
Assumptions are my own biases what if the farmers are not ready to be trained.

Yes are things needs to be identified early as possible

The key data risks are data breaches, data loss, data manipulation, and data exposure. If not managed and planned correctly, they can lead to significant losses for organizations in term of trust, financial, and reputation

The common data assumptions are: random samples, independence, normality, equal variance, stability, and that your measurement system is accurate and precise. In this post, we'll address random samples and statistical independence

There are actually two assumptions: The observations between groups should be independent, which basically means the groups are made up of different people. You don't want one person appearing twice in two different groups as it could skew your results. The observations within each group must be independent.

Risk and assumptions are a very important aspect of the M&E plan which i had not previously considered. Having this in mind helps one to be proactive making provision for some challenges even before they arise and minimise some risk.

Understanding risk and assumptions is key to eliminating our biases from our projects. It is therefore crucial for an M&E person to fish out risks and assumption to be during a projects cycle.

What happens with the unexpected risks and assumptions?
The unexpected risks and assumptions helps the stakeholders to be aware of the risks that might happen therefore making necessary adjustments.

risk is defined as an uncertain threat that, in case of occurring, could have a negative impact in the completion of the Goal or Activity. An assumption, on the other side, is the necessary condition that will enable the successful completion of the Goal or Activity.

The 4 essential steps of the Risk Management Process are:
Identify the risk.
Assess the risk.
Treat the risk.
Monitor and Report on the risk.

risk is defined as an uncertain threat that, in case of occurring, could have a negative impact in the completion of the Goal or Activity. An assumption, on the other side, is the necessary condition that will enable the successful completion of the Goal or Activity.

The 4 essential steps of the Risk Management Process are:
Identify the risk.
Assess the risk.
Treat the risk.
Monitor and Report on the risk.

risk is defined as an uncertain threat that, in case of occurring, could have a negative impact in the completion of the Goal or Activity. An assumption, on the other side, is the necessary condition that will enable the successful completion of the Goal or Activity.

The 4 essential steps of the Risk Management Process are:
Identify the risk.
Assess the risk.
Treat the risk.
Monitor and Report on the risk.

isk is defined as an uncertain threat that, in case of occurring, could have a negative impact in the completion of the Goal or Activity. An assumption, on the other side, is the necessary condition that will enable the successful completion of the Goal or Activity.

The 4 essential steps of the Risk Management Process are:
Identify the risk.

isk is defined as an uncertain threat that, in case of occurring, could have a negative impact in the completion of the Goal or Activity. An assumption, on the other side, is the necessary condition that will enable the successful completion of the Goal or Activity.

The 4 essential steps of the Risk Management Process are:
Identify the risk.

Assumptions are things that we believe to be true and which we therefore build into the project plan. Constraints are things that we know to be true and which must be accounted for in the plan so that we can work around them. And risks are factors that we are aware of but whose occurrence is uncertain.

Assumptions are things that we believe to be true and which we therefore build into the project plan. Constraints are things that we know to be true and which must be accounted for in the plan so that we can work around them. And risks are factors that we are aware of but whose occurrence is uncertain.

There are two key characteristics of risks and assumptions. First, there must be some uncertainty to the event. If there is 100% chance of an event occurring, it is simply a fact. If there is a 0% chance of the event occurring, it is fiction. Neither are risks or assumptions.

Second, assumptions and risks are both outside the total control of the project team. If the event is within the control of the project team it is neither an assumption nor a risk. It should simply be managed to make it happen.

Until we can provide evidence of whether an assumption is true or not, it can be considered at a risk. Furthermore, risks can be positive or negative, so we should consider this when writing them up.

There is not a discussion question posed. However, the last few years have posed multiple challenges to assumptions. COVID impacted government outreach efforts, communities were locked down to prevent the spread of the virus, and funding for other projects slowed.

Risks are future events that one tries to visualize will happen and how they will impact the project while Assumptions is an idea or bias accepted to be true without proof. Risk and Assumptions are unforeseen conditions and events that will affect the implementation.

Ascertaining of future project risks and assumption is so important to in planning and also prioritize intervention preferring the ones with less risks.

Setting targets, is so important because there are many factors that are likely to influence it either positively or negatively.
for example. One might mobilize more sources to empower a small portion of the community, and fail to get funded. More still, targeting high amounts without clear sources of funds, might frustrate the project implementers.

Risks are things outside your control that may disrupt your plans

and
Asumptions are bisaes or believes without evidence

The number of small-holder farmers who grow soybeans.

determining the likelihood that a vulnerability, threat, or occurrence could impact the organization and what the consequences or impact would be if it were to occur.
An assumption is a statement that you assume to be true. Without assuming certain things planning would be impossible, as we never know for certain how the future will look like. We have to assume our government keeps working, our organization will keep existing and the weather will follow its usual pattern. Sometimes we look at these things as if they were facts, but in reality, they are just assumptions, as we cannot be 100% sure. Here are a couple of examples of assumptions in a project proposal:

All building materials will be available in the market before the project start
The legal framework will not change drastically in the near future
The pattern of rain will not change in the near future
A risk is an assumption with a higher level of failure. It is an event that could happen with a notable probability and could affect the outcome of your project substantially. You have to take risks into account when planning your project as they might change the entire setup if the event actually occurs. They might even end your entire project if they occur. Here are a couple of examples of risks in a project proposal:

After an election, a different political party is in charge that does not support your agenda
Natural catastrophes like floods or landslides hamper the success of your project
The pattern of rain will change in the near future

If the probability of the event is also less than 100%, it is a risk!!! An assumption is something that you assume to be the case, even without proof. While there is a clear relationship between assumptions and risks, they have different point of view: If the risk event happens

an uncertain threat that, in case of occurring, could have a negative impact in the completion of the Goal or Activity. An assumption, on the other side, is the necessary condition that will enable the successful completion of the Goal or Activity.

Risk and assumption analysis plays an integral role in drawing up a good M&E plan. Without this aspect, biases will be incorporated into the plan.

A risk is an uncertain threat that in the case of occurring could have a negative impact in the completion of a goal/activity /project. While an assumption is any factor relating to a project that is considered to be true or real without any empirical proof or demonstration. Assumptions are events or conditions that a project manager believes will occur during a project’s life cycle.

           Importance of risks and assumptions

Project assumptions are important because they help you to identify risks. On the other hand,having a clear sense of the project risks you face; can help you prevent or prepare for upcoming risks.

The risks are the potential problems or issues that may arise during a project and impact the project's success. While assumptions are ideas that are accepted to be true/certain, even without proof.

If the risk event happens then, the project is affected. Similarly, if the assumption event doesn’t happen, the project is affected too.

Risks can either be positive or negative. It is therefore important to identify risks early in order to develop plans to minimize or prevent risks that have negative impact.

Identifying risks and assumptions is really helpful to design project and M&E plan but I wonder if we need to prepare for the risk imitigation or ways that we can reduce those risk during the project implementation or not?

Risks and assumptions will always be there, but must be closely linked to the specificities of the project, context and even the funding possibilities. Its good to be very objective when bringing out the possible risks and assumptions.

The risks we took with/for this project would the kinds of places we work at, we are mobile we go to people so we are at risk of having our project hurt and having our project's progress slowed down

Thinking about risks and assumptions that may affect the project implementation (inputs, outputs, outcomes, and impact) can help avoid biases, foresee the issues, design project activities, and find out solutions to overcome the problems.

Identifying risks and assumptions in one's project is crucial. It inform him or her of how the project is running. He or she can make adjustments for at interest of the desired impact.

Identifying risks and assumptions is really helpful to design project and M&E plan but I wonder if we need to prepare for the risk imitigation or ways that we can reduce those risk during the project implementation or not?
I think project managers should also prepare some way out/plan to imitigate the risks.

After defining impact, activities and outcomes of project design it is important to point out some problems known risk and assumption. Asking question "what could go wrong?" and if/then statement will help to spot risk and assumption. After identifying risk and assumption we can combine outcomes with the outputs.

Risks are factors outside our control that can cause project to poorly for Examples youths not turning up for drug tests after much investment in purchasing the equipment's for doing a drug test Assumptions are things believed but not supported by evidence. the importance of planning for risk and assumptions is to understand events and conditions that are unforeseeable that might affect the implementation therefore giving one time to make decision. therefore looking back into risks and assumptions highlighted by the past projects, one realizes that they are repetitive thus possible and applicable solutions are always at place.

This module is such a good resource for project managers and M&E officers. The guide, the discussion and the materials are very helpful in creating a logframe. The step by step process makes it very easy to understand and I can easily compare my output to the examples provided in the discussion.

Risks and assumptions are things which we have to take note so as to avoid Project interruptions in future 😀

Most times, my team used to assume a lot of things that really affected our delivery of successful projects. So far this module has been an eye opener.

Very much agreed. This is a very important step to successful implementation of projects.

Risk is anything that could happen and prevent us from achieving our project desire. assumptions help us to put in more stringent measures to counteract risks.

Risks are the things that will disrupt our project which we did not have any control, and assumptions are our biases; the things that we believe without any evidence.
Risk and Assumptions is a powerful way to escape our biases, it's a column for each level of our theory of change that shows the things that might disrupt our project.
We can have our assumptions and risks on our formative research of our project.

Any project or program's implementation phase must include monitoring and evaluation (M&E). An M&E plan must take into account all potential risks and underlying assumptions in order to be successful. Risks in M&E can take many different forms, such as imprecise data, a lack of resources, poor personnel training, and external variables like political unrest or natural disasters. It's critical to anticipate these hazards and create mitigation plans for them. Inaccurate data, distorted outcomes, and ultimately bad decision-making can be the outcome of failing to accomplish this.

Any M&E strategy must include assumptions as well. They are opinions or theories that aren't always supported by facts, but instead rely on presumptions made by the project team. These assumptions must be understood and recorded since they may affect how well the M&E strategy works. The team may create a more thorough M&E strategy that will assist assure the success of the project or program by comprehending the assumptions established throughout the planning phase. The M&E plan can also be kept current during the execution of a project or program by routinely examining and revising these hypotheses.

Planning for risks should be at the inception of every program or project. Knowing what the possible risks are and preparing for them will provide more leeway for re- direction.

these are thing that should never be overlooked because they are an important part of the log frame and the project as a whole

A risk is a factor usually negative and outside one's control that could cause one's project to be unproductive.

An assumption is a belief that is not necessarily based on evidence.

The topic is very understable

Risks and assumptions are unforeseeable conditions that might affect a project during it implementation. That's why risks and assumptions are take into account into the logical framework. In order to find out risks and assumptions, one can look at past events, through survey among beneficiaries
or past activities of the organization that are similar to the project activities. Identify risks and assumptions allow to plan the project adequately

Indeed it is vital to identify the things that would hurt the progress of the project before the project begins. That way, you are able to make decisions in advance on what to do if that particular risk occurs.