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I always assumed risks and assumptions are disjointed from if/then evidence at various levels of project

I always assumed risks and assumptions are disjointed from if/then evidence at various levels of project.

I always assumed risks and assumptions are disjointed from if/then evidence at various levels of project.

I understand that there is not always a clean and smooth way to your target. Many times, we can come across such obstacles. One reason is not really being aware of how things are going on in the field, namely real-life conditions. Second, projects may face unusual developments such as a sharp rise inflation that make the expenses doubled or an earthquake that destroys an entire city, but also your plans. So always we need to keep in mind the possibilities that might occur during implementing a project.

One of the assumptions we made was that the communities will be very open to receiving these condoms. And it was not the case as especially the adults were shy about it as the topic of sex is a taboo in Africa.

One of the assumptions we made was that the communities will be very open to receiving these condoms. And it was not the case as especially the adults were shy about it as the topic of sex is a taboo in Africa.

It has been very insightful so far.

les risques & hypothèses sont des éléments très important dans la constitution même d'un plan de suivi et évaluation du fait que lorsqu'on met en place un plan de suivi & évaluation ces éléments aident dans la prise de décision dans la mise en œuvre des activités du projet.

Risks and assumptions help ensure the flow of a project cycle by forseeing potential problems before they occur which could disruspt the project goal and activities.

It is important to plan for risks and assumptions ahead of time is so that
you can understand events and conditions that are unforeseeable
that might affect your implementation, therefore giving you enough time to make
decisions at the right time.
We tested for our assumptions and risks within our
logframe by looking at our past events and seeing out of those activities we
had implemented some of the common assumptions and risks.
Then we go
through our beneficiaries and ask them what would be some of the assumptions
that we had put along whether they fitted and finally we looked at the list
of activities that we did and listed some of our assumption.

Very important this and all lesson

We must identity them easily

Agry with you

What are Risks and Assumptions?
Assumptions are the unproven connections between levels in a design hierarchy, theory of change, or the project context. common assumptions focus on:

1. How the context will evolve: how change works
2. Project philosophy or approach, including the strategic advantage of one approach over another.

Risk is the "effect of uncertainty on objectives." Within the logic framework approach to project design, however, risk is formulated as the negative assumptions behind, or the facts of the project including the interaction between context conditions and the project. in other words, risks in logic frameworks are the potential logical barriers to the achievement of the objectives for each level in the design hierarchy.

Assumption are beliefs without evidence, interesting 🤔

Risks and assumption are good way of identifying factors that might disturb your projects activities or prevent from achieving your goals. So, it is vital part of every project logframes to avoid those problems in advance.

It is important to plan for risks and assumptions ahead of time is so that
you can understand events and conditions that are unforeseeable
that might affect your implementation, therefore giving you enough time to make
decisions at the right time.
We tested for our assumptions and risks within our
logframe by looking at our past events and seeing out of those activities we
had implemented some of the common assumptions and risks.
Then we go
through our beneficiaries and ask them what would be some of the assumptions
that we had put along whether they fitted and finally we looked at the list
of activities that we did and listed some of our assumption.

Can we include mitigations to our risk and assumptions?

Risks and assumptions if not well managed can cause a lot of damages to the outcome of the project and that is why proper studies, research and needs assessment should be properly done

Risk and assumption are a critical exercise that need to be considered at each level or at each element of the logframe in order to identify, analyse and mitigitate risk before any severe risk can happen.

It also stimulate creativity of th e project designer and he/she would have anticipated the risk and about how the will navigate the situation if things goes the other way.

It is worth noting that once the risks are identified and mitigation measures defined then one's biases would be eliminated and this also increases the donors believe in a project.

Risk and assumption are a critical exercise that need to be considered at each level or at each element of the logframe in order to identify, analyse and mitigitate risk before any severe risk can happen.

It also stimulate creativity of th e project designer and he/she would have anticipated the risk and about how the will navigate the situation if things goes the other way.

It is worth noting that once the risks are identified and mitigation measures defined then one's biases would be eliminated and this also increases the donors believe in a project.

Risks and assumptions are factors that may likely affect the progress or effectiveness of the project. They may in some instances cause the project to stop. such factors could be conflicts and other natural disasters. However, when we plan for them, management becomes less difficult when they do appear.

For me, this unit is the core of the evaluation and monitoring process

The plan, programs and actions/projects should indicate the necessary conditions that must exist if the cause and effect relationships between the levels of results are to work: these are the assumptions. These represent the positive external and internal conditions that are important in achieving the results of the said plans, programs and actions/projects.

External and internal negative factors that affect the successful achievement of results should be identified. These factors represent the risks that will need to be addressed. Thus, each time the existence of a hypothesis for the success of a project is defined, it is necessary to analyze the risk that it is absent.

To this end, it is necessary to draw up a risk map and therefore a prioritized inventory of events or situations that could compromise the achievement of strategic and operational objectives, the organization of long-term risk management.

For me, this unit is the core of the evaluation and monitoring process

I can understand the concept of Risks and Assumptions. Risk and Assumptions might affect my implementation, therefore giving you enough time to make decision at the right time. We can test Risk and Assumptions in the Log Frame Matrix.
We can input some of the risk and assumptions in the log frame then we could ask our beneficiary about out assumptions.

Risks and Assumtions
1.Risks: are factors that may derail the success of the project.
They are unforseen factors that need to be thought of first before they cause problems in the attainment of the impacts and outcomes. They remain a factor that can not be controlled hence the need to identify them.
2.Assumptions:These are beliefs without which are not backed by evidence. These beliefs are so strong that they may bring about Biases. Assumptions are usually liked with risks, together is not well managed may affect the impact and outcomes of the project.
A good project design or log frame should identify risks and Assumtions and remedy them before they disturb the project.

Risks and Assumptions are key in order to better measure the efficiency of our targets as we better understand our situations and ask critical questions. It is also important as we come up with risks we also ensure we come with measures to mitigate and manage our risks.

Additionally, Identifying the risks and assumptions may seem easy, but there is more to it than meets the eye. The Results Based Management approach puts a lot of attention to this aspect. When you’ve identified the possible risks, you have to assess what the probability is that each risk occurs.

I feel it is very important to note the risk and assumptions as this could hinder the entire project and hence being aware of these issues could assist with having the upper hand and addressing these issues before getting to it later.

Unrealistic targets would make that the project does not seem to reach its goals but this is because the targets were unobtainable to begin with.

Data collection tools are very useful but also very tricky to make because using the wrong information could damage the project or hinder it in some way.

Data management is so important, following the order will only be for the best interest of the project

Risks and Assumptions are key in order to better measure the efficiency of our targets as we better understand our situations and ask critical questions. It is also important as we come up with risks we also ensure we come with measures to mitigate and manage our risks.

Additionally, Identifying the risks and assumptions may seem easy, but there is more to it than meets the eye. The Results Based Management approach puts a lot of attention to this aspect. When you’ve identified the possible risks, you have to assess what the probability is that each risk occurs.

Risks and assumptions are important components in any project, if managed well the success of the project is guaranteed.

I found the module to be very interesting and enlightening. Most especially, the logically flow helps me to understand the connection between input, output, outcome and impact. Thank you!

According to my thought, I would like to emphasize that the risks and assumptions are crucial for project designer to take time and consider on it because it will help the project designer and implementer know why and how to do in responding.

personally i believe risks are very important to be taken care of. The more we have risks handled the better to have our project stirred successfully.

Risks ad Assumptions
Risks and assumptions are generally things that might disrupt our plan of project.

In 2015 i was involved in planning and implementation of a microfinance project, village saving and loans association however, the project went successful but due to conflict and economic crisis facing the country - south Sudan, this project fall under inflation and close down of business centers due to fighting across this community. I believe the consequent were due an anticipated level of risk and assumption analysis. moreover, the CHILDS south Sudan opt to prioritized context monitoring which actual gave some reasonable early warning to the implementation teams. Finally, the organization decided to focus and anticipated inflation training and increase the loans that were projected to 10% to cope with inflation.

There need to be a way to monitor MEH's beneficiaries if they use the microloan money as expected and verification if the businesses are being implemented or upgraded as expected.

Risk and assumptions need to be taken care of to have a successful project. Evidence-based information gives confidence to funders and implementers alike.

Risks and assumptions should be clearly written.

true. I agree.

Risks and assumptions are all the things that might disrupt the M & E plan in he project. This may arise along the inputs, outputs, outcomes and impacts which leads to wrong.
This related to the questions like:
What could be going wrong?
Are the inputs leads to correct outputs?
Are the outputs goes to give good outcomes?
Are the outcomes leads to impacts?

Risks and assumptions are all the things that might disrupt the M & E plan in he project. This may arise along the inputs, outputs, outcomes and impacts which leads to wrong.
This related to the questions like:
What could be going wrong?
Are the inputs leads to correct outputs?
Are the outputs goes to give good outcomes?
Are the outcomes leads to impacts?

Assumption are beliefs without evidence, interesting 🤔

Identifying risks and assumptions serves to assess whether the goals and activities proposed are realistic and achievable in the given time frame and within the given available human and financial resources.
Risk could also be viewed as an uncertain threat that, in case of occurring, could have a negative impact in the completion of the project. An assumption, on the other side, is the necessary condition that will enable the successful completion of the project.

The same statement might be an assumption or a risk depending on the circumstances of your particular project. There is some degree of uncertainty to an assumption. If the event is negative and there is a low probability that it will happen, it can be stated as an assumption. If the event is positive and there is a high likelihood it will happen, it is also an assumption. One way to identify important assumptions is to perform a risk assessment and look at all the low-risk items. Most of these low risks are not worth mentioning, but some will have significant implications if events do not turn out as you think. These are the ones that you can document as assumptions.

There are two key characteristics of risks and assumptions. First, there must be some uncertainty to the event. If there is 100% chance of an event occurring, it is simply a fact. If there is a 0% chance of the event occurring, it is fiction. Neither are risks or assumptions.

Secondly, assumptions and risks are both outside the total control of the project team. If the event is within the control of the project team it is neither an assumption nor a risk. It should simply be managed to make it happen.

its absolute clear that in every project there most be risk and assumptions. we have had situations where a beneficiary of a product or service voluntarily decides to divert from the purpose or intension of the project and do something else which at the end leads to project failure. For example for the MEH case the microloan intended for business startup may finally be used to pay children's school fees thus making it difficult to actually evaluate the impact the the project.

SOME RISKS AND ASSUMPTIONS FOR THE HIV-Free project:

• Some Pregnant women in ANC1 identified within the communities by the Community health Workers may refused to be referred to the project health facilities

• Among pregnant women in ANC1 referred to the project health facilities, some could refuse the HIV testing

• Administrative and/or security authorities wouldn't be favorable to the HIV's VCT campaigns within the communities

• Patients newly initiated on ART treatment may not respect the continuity in drugs taking.

kdnisadijae

kdnisadijaeif

This was a good topic. Through this topic, I have learnt how to develop a logframe, particularly focusing on inputs, Outputs and Impacts. I have also learn how to develop risk and assessments to these elements to weight and judge my project.

Risks and assumptions should have a balance in the design of the project. If there are too many risks the project cannot even get started and if there are too many assumptions the project may get away from a realistic design.

thanks for sharing

It is indeed very important to identify risks before project starts as this enables one to address chances of making project fail. Equally so for assumptions

If risks are not addressed at this stage implementation might be compromised resulting to worse as project failure due to panic in finding solutions

Thanks for this Course if finished I will good to go

Risks and assumptions for my project include:
-Children may not be as open about their problems as we hoped

• The might not be enough time to empower theses girls
  -Religion of these girls might not allow them to participate.
  -The project might not have enough money to carry out its purpose every month
• The Sanitary towels given to the girls might be used by other family members,leading to shortage for the girls

The risks and assumption for my project is that, girls might not go thoroughly for clinic visits. Girls might not want to use condoms / tell their partners to use condom. The are not enough funds to support the project. Some girls might abscond the session. Girls might afraid to participate to the project because they will thought that they must disclose their status.

For me, M&E is the need to every institution.

Risks and assumptions are senarios which can not be controlled by you and can hurt the project. Risks are basically things which can prevent your desired outcomes under your log frame and assumptions are biases which occur when we donot use data to back up the information we are relying on.

Assumptions are external factors for which the intervention is not responsible, but that are very important for the realisation of the results, the project purpose and the overall objective. They are outside direct intervention control, but vital for achieving a successful implementation. a risk is defined as an uncertain threat that, in case of occurring, could have a negative impact in the completion of the Goal or Activity. An assumption, on the other side, is the necessary condition that will enable the successful completion of the Goal or Activity.

Hii.Thanks for this Course if finished I will be an expert in MEH.

, a risk is an uncertain threat that, in case of occurring, could have a negative impact in the completion of the Goal or Activity. An assumption, on the other side, is the necessary condition that will enable the successful completion of the Goal or Activity.

Risk are the things outside your control that might disrupt your project while assumptions are the things that you believe without much evidence

risks and assumptions are two elements that could be a hindrance to the realization of our projects. It is important to focus on them in order to anticipate as much as possible to have a result and an impact of our projects.
Assumptions play an essential role in developing a risk management plan. As a project manager, you must identify and manage as many of these assumptions as you can to increase the probability that your project will be completed successfully, on time and within budget.

It is indeed very important to identify risks before project starts as this enables one to address chances of making project fail. Equally so for assumptions

If risks are not addressed at this stage implementation might be compromised resulting to worse as project failure due to panic in finding solutions

In this section, I have learned that in every phase of project design (Input to Impact) there are inherently risks involved during implementation phase and biases in assumptopms that will impact the project performance. To this end, I have learned to follow logical flow ('if...then) in my identification of risks and assumptions and use them to assess every phase of the risk flow. To conduct my risk analysis, I have decided to use a framework named as PESTEL, which will help me stand in a good stead for future excerises.

The Risks and Assumptions column is the fourth column of the logical framework. The assumptions describe the situations, events, conditions or decisions which are necessary for the success of the project, but which are largely or completely beyond the control of the project's management

The Risks and Assumptions column is the fourth column of the logical framework. The assumptions describe the situations, events, conditions or decisions which are necessary for the success of the project, but which are largely or completely beyond the control of the project's management. risk is defined as an uncertain threat that, in case of occurring, could have a negative impact in the completion of the Goal or Activity. An assumption, on the other side, is the necessary condition that will enable the successful completion of the Goal or Activity.

What if your assumption were wrong.
Some of risks are life threatening. For example an insecure place.

Assumption can be described as the situation, events, conditions which are necessary for the progress of the projects and they can be sometimes incorrect. While Risk are the things that are widely out of our controls and can disrupt the plan and also have negative effect on the project

risks and assumptions ;allow one to make plan against unforeseen circumstance that might affect the implementation of your programmes. therefore, its very important to include it in project

how do you cope in countries that are economically unstable ?

this module provide us good solutions and ways to handle with risks and assumptions that our project may face.

As far as i understood. Risk would be mainly be the probability of it happening and, either positive or negative impact it might have on the actual project at hand.

In addition, assumptions on the other hand are possible factors for planning purposes, that are considered to be real or true without proof or any form of demonstration. Moreover, because assumption is a statement that assumet to be true, it is vital to consider, with the absence of assumption on certain things, planning would not be possible. This is because we do not know how the future looks like.

Unrealistic Targets would those that do not take into account, the amount of budget available and, the stakeolder targets. Moreover, these would be targets that are difficult to achieve based on the level they are set.

risk and assumptions

Good good good

Good good good

The money for buying the ICT gadgets not enough
The trainers are not present
The location of the facility not favorable to the youth

Anybody ascertained risks and assumptions for their m&e plan?

Anybody ascertained risks and assumptions for their m&e plan?

There are categories of risks that could be controlled depending on whether they are low, medium or high. At what phase of the project can one identify and control risks?

Greetings,
In my understanding, a risk is an unanticipated situation that might occur that exposes the project to failure.
An assumption is a situation or result accepted as true or certain to happen without proof. Examples are
Impact: Sustainable agriculture in Turkana county.
Output: Agriculture in Turkana County does well where there is improved production, income and livelihood of the residents.
Outcome: Boreholes are dug and Irrigation systems are put in place.
Input: Funds.
An example of an assumption is that the residents of Turkana will embrace agriculture. The turkana people are traditionally pastoralists. they may be adamant to do farming.
An example of a risk is that the pastoralists may feed their animals on the agricultural crops being produced incase of a drought since the area is an arid and semi arid area.

We can see that it is probably unavoidable, don't fine risk and assumptions, but it is also important to take them into account because of thinking about these risks and assumptions we can avoid some problems.

I identifying Risks during M & E is like planning a defense mechanism even before the enemy attacks.

same here, high five

In a project where an organization would want to reduce maternal and child morbidity and mortality by improving sanitation, there are several activities that the organization has to carry out under input and output levels of the logical framework. Such activities may include provision of money and manpower that will help in construction of improved pit-latrines in the community as an output. In a long run this will lead to reduced diarrhoeral diseases hence reduced maternal and child mortality and morbidity due to such illnesses. Nevertheless, before kick-starting such kind of the project, there is a need to look at the possible risks and assumptions that might lead to not achieving the desired goals. These risks can be addressed at each level of the logical framework from the input level to the impact level. This will help decision makers to devise ways that will help to mitigate the risks and achieve the desired goals.

THIS IS VERY IMPORTANT BECAUSE IT WILL DETERMINE THE SUCCESS OF THE PROJECT

Risk and assumptions are important factors that need to be carefully considered during project design. Identifying and taking note of risks that may scuttle project outcomes and impact and monitoring those risks will help in timely detection and course correction.
Assumptions on the other hand are our biases that can be true or otherwise. Evidence is the best way to overcome and control bias.

Risks and assumptions are critical in decision making. Risks are unforeseen circumstances, and must be put into consideration when designing a project. M&E expert should always consider risks and assumptions during the design, and when the project is being carried out. The goal of the project is key, and it is always fascinating, but there are usually risks involved.

DISCUSSIONS ON RISKS AND ASSUMPTIONS IN PROJECT M&E

Risks are the unseen uncertainties in any endeavor taken in order to achieve a certain objective/s or goals.
Risks are innate in every project idea to be implemented and achieved. How to reduce or mitigate its impacts otherwise the three-legged stool of quality, budget and time will be compromised when it is to be keenly observed.
The implementers and the high impact stakeholders should be able to raise assumptions which might translate to risks. Risks registers are highly recommended, available to every stakeholder in the project.
Therefore, before and during every project cycle, the stakeholders are called upon to keenly analyze the progression of the project with analysis of how to deal with the projected risks and assumptions, also any arising of the same.

In M&E, the plan will outline how the project is to be carried out. That would be in a form of a Theory of Change (High Level Project Plan) + Logic Model (LM)/ Log Frame (Detailed Project Inputs, Activities, Output, Outcome & Impact) You can include your short, medium and long term goals within the components, depending on the scope of the project.

With all the M&E proper planning, one would argue that, not all what we plan is what will happen due to unforseen circumstances that we have no control over. We can plan to go to the Villages and collect data tommorrow and we wake up to a bad storm. That is something that we did not know will happen. We can even assume that all the participants will be at the venue ready for us if it was not a bad weather day.

In M&E, the plan will outline how the project is to be carried out. That would be in a form of a Theory of Change (High Level Project Plan) + Logic Model (LM)/ Log Frame (Detailed Project Inputs, Activities, Output, Outcome & Impact) You can include your short, medium and long term goals within the components, depending on the scope of the project.

With all the M&E proper planning, one would argue that, not all what we plan is what will happen due to unforseen circumstances that we have no control over. We can plan to go to the Villages and collect data tommorrow and we wake up to a bad storm. That is something that we did not know will happen. We can even assume that all the participants will be at the venue ready for us if it was not a bad weather day.

I like the broadening of the risks that it can have a positive or negative effects on it.

True, risks if not well documented will have an effect on project performance. a flow is needed when implementing the project, step by step. Kudos.

M&E is very important for the proper functining of a project

That is factual that risks must be tallied.

Would like to read more.

@symahirwe said in Module 2 Discussion: Risks and Assumptions:

In this context, a risk is defined as an uncertain threat that, in case of occurring, could have a negative impact in the completion of the Goal or Activity. An assumption, on the other side, is the necessary condition that will enable the successful completion of the Goal or Activity.

The risk is uncertain, which not only have an adverse effects on the project goal/s but also positive effects.

These are the obvious negative impacts assumed against the impact of the project.

Risks are things that are of the company's control and might disrupt its plan for example a risk of in Girls Union project where children will be bought all necessay school uniforms and nourishment to go to boarding school, the risk is do these childeren want to continue their education? ,Will funders offer money on time for school?
Assumption is the necessary condition that you believe will enable the succesful completion of the goal even without evidence. For example in Girls union With proper provision of school uniform and nourishment all children will go to school and excel academically.

These are the obvious negative impacts assumed against the impact of the project.

These are the obvious negative impacts assumed against the impact of the project.

These are the obvious negative impacts assumed against the impact of the project.