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@Ray06 said in Module 2 Discussion: Risks and Assumptions:

Identifying Risks and Assumptions before the project commences is a very good way of assessing what could go wrong in a project endeavor. Doing so, helps plan in advance, counteracting whatever huddles you find along the way. This gives us time to come up with solutions and strategies that will resolve such challenges in a more efficient and timely manner.
I like what you are pointing to it is very true if one identifies risks and assumption from the initial stage of a project, the project in the evaluation stage will have outstanding and remarkable result. you can also add on the importance of evidence and biases. don't you think so?

I don't understand what is being requested in this discussion section, as there does not appear to be a question to answer.

An assumption is the act of taking something for granted or supposing. In a project sense, an assumption is something we establish as true for the purposes of allowing us to proceed with our project work, usually during the planning and estimating phase. Assumptions enable the project to move forward without absolutely certain information

To identify risks and assumptions at the stage of planning for monitoring & evaluation can be said that forming a project operational auxiliary.

It is very important to identify risks and assumptions in M&E plan. Risks are unforeseen things which may disrupt the plan of the project while Assumptions are biases; things that you believe in but have no evidence

Am I right when I say that the Risks and Assumptions are always negative?

An assumption can also be a risk

This is well stated

Well explained, thank you for sharing

It is very important to identify risks and assumptions in M&E plan. Risks are unforeseen things which may disrupt the plan of the project while Assumptions are biases; things that you believe in but have no evidence

It is very important to identify risks and assumptions in M&E plan. Risks are unforeseen things which may disrupt the plan of the project while Assumptions are biases; things that you believe in but have no evidence

It is very important to identify risks and assumptions in M&E plan. Risks are unforeseen things which may disrupt the plan of the project while Assumptions are biases; things that you believe in but have no evidence

Risks are out of control and we can make assumptions for indicators' achievements

You are welcome

It was very interesting module. I learned so many new things.

An assumption is any project factor that is considered to be true, real, or certain without empirical proof or demonstration.
A project risk is an uncertain event that may or may not occur during a project

Risks and assumptions helps in clarifying whether the proposed objective and activities are achievable during the project implementation and one can ponder on how to manage this risk and ways to reduce it.

The two primary attributes of a risk are the probability of it happening and the impact (negative or positive) that it might have on a project. Assumptions are “factors that, for planning purposes, are considered to be true, real, or certain without proof or demonstration”

Risk and assumptions are the things that may go wrong for program so you need to come up with a plan to avoid the problem.

In this context, a risk is defined as an uncertain threat that, in case of occurring, could have a negative impact in the completion of the Goal or Activity. An assumption, on the other side, is the necessary condition that will enable the successful completion of the Goal or Activity.

An assumption is any project factor that is considered to be true, real, or certain without empirical proof or demonstration.
A project risk is an uncertain event that may or may not occur during a project

Risks and Assumptions are very important for project

Risks are out of control and we can make assumptions for indicators' achievements

RISKS can lead to failure of the project as well as unproductive project.
assumptions can lead to biased information hence failure to complete the project

risks are the unforeseeable activities or things that might hinder one from successfully implementing a program. an assumption is the bias one has without evidence.

It is important to consider the any unexpected risks or assumptions, which I think are often left out from project planning. The video hilighted a useful way to overcome this which was through beneficiaries and stakeholders within the project and ask them what would be some of their assumptions for risks. The example used was a Whatsaap group so can identify risks on the ground so can plan for it accordingly. This informal type of focus group discussion as formative research is low cost and easy to identify unforeseeable risks as a outsider researcher/ project implementer.

It is important to consider the any unexpected risks or assumptions, which I think are often left out from project planning. The video hilighted a useful way to overcome this which was through beneficiaries and stakeholders within the project and ask them what would be some of their assumptions for risks. The example used was a Whatsaap group so can identify risks on the ground so can plan for it accordingly. This informal type of focus group discussion as formative research is low cost and easy to identify unforeseeable risks as a outsider researcher/ project implementer.

1. Some FSW will not be willing to stop because the money gain from sex work will be more than what that gain through entrepreneurship

It is important to consider the any unexpected risks or assumptions, which I think are often left out from project planning. The video hilighted a useful way to overcome this which was through beneficiaries and stakeholders within the project and ask them what would be some of their assumptions for risks. The example used was a Whatsaap group so can identify risks on the ground so can plan for it accordingly. This informal type of focus group discussion as formative research is low cost and easy to identify unforeseeable risks as a outsider researcher/ project implementer.

Assumptions and risks are areas in a project in individual have no control of. These same assumption and risks can be identified on the initial stage of the M&E plan. And are are caused by events or occurrences.

I agree risks and assumption are potentially influential in the project failure and succes.

THE MAIN DIFFERENCE BETWEEN AN ASSUMPTION AND A RISK IS THAT WHEN WE MAKE AN ASSUMPTION WE EXPECT ASSUMPTION WILL HAPPEN.IF THE ASSUMPTION DOESNT HAPPEN THEN THE PROJECT IS NEGATIVELY AFFECTED .WITH A RISK WE ATICIPATE THAT THE RISK MIGHT HAPPEN AND THUS NEGATIVELY IMPACT THE PROJECT

THE MAIN DIFFERENCE BETWEEN AN ASSUMPTION ANS A RISK IS THATWE MAKE AN ASSUMPTION WE EXPECT THAT ASSUMPTION WILL HAPPEN.IF THE ASSUMPTION DOESNT HAPPEN THEN THE PROJECT IS NEGATIVELY AFFECTEDE.WITH A RISK WE ATICIPATE THAT THE RISK MIGHT HAPPEN AND THUS NEGATIVELY IMPACT OUR PROJECT

The main difference between an assumption and a risk is that when we make an assumption, we expect that assumption will happen. If the assumption doesn’t happen then the project is negatively affected. With a risk we anticipate that the risk might happen and thus negatively impact our project. If the risk doesn’t materialize then the project will benefit. So in affect we can think of assumptions as almost being the opposite of risks (assumption happens = project ok versus risk happens = project not ok).

We can monitor assumptions simply by regularly reviewing them with our project team. In these reviews you should ensure that actions are given to follow up any questions arising, and that these actions are tracked. By doing this we reduce the likelihood of an assumption becoming the accepted wisdom.
To manage assumptions we can actually use the Risk Management Process. Here we simply ask what would it mean to the project if the assumption turned out to be false. By asking “what would it mean” we are understanding the impact if the assumption was false. By asking “if the assumption turned out to be false” we are gaining an understanding of the probability of the assumption being false.
Now that we have an assessment of impact and probability for the assumption being false, we can record that in the risk register as a risk, and use the risk management process to keep track of it.

this was so helpful and it has increased my knowledge on how to formulate and state risks and assumptions

This topic has opened me to something I had never thought about in M&E. All I knew was if I have enough activities and well planned targets then there was no need of looking at outside things that may affect project implementation.

This topic has opened me to something I had never thought about in M&E. All I knew was if I have enough activities and well planned targets then there was no need of looking at outside things that may affect project implementation.

@undavidjohnson, This is a discussion avenue where different participants here state how they feel about the module or the different topics.

The risks and assumption describe the situation, events conditions which are necessary for the success of the project , but which are largely or completely beyond the control of the project management.

you identify the risk and then give the assumption

how can i measure the probability of risk evented

Identifying risks and assumptions serves to assess whether the goals and activities proposed are realistic and achievable in the given time frame and within the given available human and financial resources.
Risk can also be viewed s an uncertain threat that, in case of occurring, could have a negative impact in the completion of the project. An assumption, on the other side, is the necessary condition that will enable the successful completion of the project.

This is a part where I used to disregard alot in my first year of project management. But now I understand how important it is to spend more time exploring what could go wrong and make a plan to overcome the expected challenges.

Number 3 made think alot. In fundraising, we often seem like beggars. But in reality, we are both equal in the equation despite the fact that the money provider is more valued but we are both working towards a similar cause.

they are discudded

• project summary is an important column in the log frame as it describes the activities of the project in a logical flow.

Risks and Asumptions are also what to consider in a log frame, it helps to recognise our biases.

Good afternoon team, how do comes up with risk and assumptions in designing a project log frame so as to avoid being bias

How do you make sure you avoid being bias during your project

How do you make sure that your output will reflect to the outcome of your project

How do you make sure that your output will reflect to the outcome of your project

Risks: People living with HIV/AIDS decide to stop following treatment because it is long Supposicoes: the drug is fake was created to reduce life expectancy

its been great to learn of considering risks in creating a logframe which is paramount in knowing what to expect and how to coushon it

To think in M&E about the project I’m working with. I can say the risks and assumptions include but not limited to:

• Would the teachers be able to carry out the risk/safety assessment I created for the centers?
• If they didn’t, who would know? Would there be someone to monitor the safety logbook?
• If we trained someone from each center and assign him as safety focal point, would she/he have the time to carry out the safety inspections?

Risks and assumption are the possibe hindrance to your project

I always assumed risks and assumptions are disjointed from if/then evidence at various levels of project

I always assumed risks and assumptions are disjointed from if/then evidence at various levels of project.

I always assumed risks and assumptions are disjointed from if/then evidence at various levels of project.

I understand that there is not always a clean and smooth way to your target. Many times, we can come across such obstacles. One reason is not really being aware of how things are going on in the field, namely real-life conditions. Second, projects may face unusual developments such as a sharp rise inflation that make the expenses doubled or an earthquake that destroys an entire city, but also your plans. So always we need to keep in mind the possibilities that might occur during implementing a project.

One of the assumptions we made was that the communities will be very open to receiving these condoms. And it was not the case as especially the adults were shy about it as the topic of sex is a taboo in Africa.

One of the assumptions we made was that the communities will be very open to receiving these condoms. And it was not the case as especially the adults were shy about it as the topic of sex is a taboo in Africa.

It has been very insightful so far.

les risques & hypothèses sont des éléments très important dans la constitution même d'un plan de suivi et évaluation du fait que lorsqu'on met en place un plan de suivi & évaluation ces éléments aident dans la prise de décision dans la mise en œuvre des activités du projet.

Risks and assumptions help ensure the flow of a project cycle by forseeing potential problems before they occur which could disruspt the project goal and activities.

It is important to plan for risks and assumptions ahead of time is so that
you can understand events and conditions that are unforeseeable
that might affect your implementation, therefore giving you enough time to make
decisions at the right time.
We tested for our assumptions and risks within our
logframe by looking at our past events and seeing out of those activities we
had implemented some of the common assumptions and risks.
Then we go
through our beneficiaries and ask them what would be some of the assumptions
that we had put along whether they fitted and finally we looked at the list
of activities that we did and listed some of our assumption.

Very important this and all lesson

We must identity them easily

Agry with you

What are Risks and Assumptions?
Assumptions are the unproven connections between levels in a design hierarchy, theory of change, or the project context. common assumptions focus on:

1. How the context will evolve: how change works
2. Project philosophy or approach, including the strategic advantage of one approach over another.

Risk is the "effect of uncertainty on objectives." Within the logic framework approach to project design, however, risk is formulated as the negative assumptions behind, or the facts of the project including the interaction between context conditions and the project. in other words, risks in logic frameworks are the potential logical barriers to the achievement of the objectives for each level in the design hierarchy.

Assumption are beliefs without evidence, interesting 🤔

Risks and assumption are good way of identifying factors that might disturb your projects activities or prevent from achieving your goals. So, it is vital part of every project logframes to avoid those problems in advance.

It is important to plan for risks and assumptions ahead of time is so that
you can understand events and conditions that are unforeseeable
that might affect your implementation, therefore giving you enough time to make
decisions at the right time.
We tested for our assumptions and risks within our
logframe by looking at our past events and seeing out of those activities we
had implemented some of the common assumptions and risks.
Then we go
through our beneficiaries and ask them what would be some of the assumptions
that we had put along whether they fitted and finally we looked at the list
of activities that we did and listed some of our assumption.

Can we include mitigations to our risk and assumptions?

Risks and assumptions if not well managed can cause a lot of damages to the outcome of the project and that is why proper studies, research and needs assessment should be properly done

Risk and assumption are a critical exercise that need to be considered at each level or at each element of the logframe in order to identify, analyse and mitigitate risk before any severe risk can happen.

It also stimulate creativity of th e project designer and he/she would have anticipated the risk and about how the will navigate the situation if things goes the other way.

It is worth noting that once the risks are identified and mitigation measures defined then one's biases would be eliminated and this also increases the donors believe in a project.

Risk and assumption are a critical exercise that need to be considered at each level or at each element of the logframe in order to identify, analyse and mitigitate risk before any severe risk can happen.

It also stimulate creativity of th e project designer and he/she would have anticipated the risk and about how the will navigate the situation if things goes the other way.

It is worth noting that once the risks are identified and mitigation measures defined then one's biases would be eliminated and this also increases the donors believe in a project.

Risks and assumptions are factors that may likely affect the progress or effectiveness of the project. They may in some instances cause the project to stop. such factors could be conflicts and other natural disasters. However, when we plan for them, management becomes less difficult when they do appear.

For me, this unit is the core of the evaluation and monitoring process

The plan, programs and actions/projects should indicate the necessary conditions that must exist if the cause and effect relationships between the levels of results are to work: these are the assumptions. These represent the positive external and internal conditions that are important in achieving the results of the said plans, programs and actions/projects.

External and internal negative factors that affect the successful achievement of results should be identified. These factors represent the risks that will need to be addressed. Thus, each time the existence of a hypothesis for the success of a project is defined, it is necessary to analyze the risk that it is absent.

To this end, it is necessary to draw up a risk map and therefore a prioritized inventory of events or situations that could compromise the achievement of strategic and operational objectives, the organization of long-term risk management.

For me, this unit is the core of the evaluation and monitoring process

I can understand the concept of Risks and Assumptions. Risk and Assumptions might affect my implementation, therefore giving you enough time to make decision at the right time. We can test Risk and Assumptions in the Log Frame Matrix.
We can input some of the risk and assumptions in the log frame then we could ask our beneficiary about out assumptions.

Risks and Assumtions
1.Risks: are factors that may derail the success of the project.
They are unforseen factors that need to be thought of first before they cause problems in the attainment of the impacts and outcomes. They remain a factor that can not be controlled hence the need to identify them.
2.Assumptions:These are beliefs without which are not backed by evidence. These beliefs are so strong that they may bring about Biases. Assumptions are usually liked with risks, together is not well managed may affect the impact and outcomes of the project.
A good project design or log frame should identify risks and Assumtions and remedy them before they disturb the project.

Risks and Assumptions are key in order to better measure the efficiency of our targets as we better understand our situations and ask critical questions. It is also important as we come up with risks we also ensure we come with measures to mitigate and manage our risks.

Additionally, Identifying the risks and assumptions may seem easy, but there is more to it than meets the eye. The Results Based Management approach puts a lot of attention to this aspect. When you’ve identified the possible risks, you have to assess what the probability is that each risk occurs.

I feel it is very important to note the risk and assumptions as this could hinder the entire project and hence being aware of these issues could assist with having the upper hand and addressing these issues before getting to it later.

Unrealistic targets would make that the project does not seem to reach its goals but this is because the targets were unobtainable to begin with.

Data collection tools are very useful but also very tricky to make because using the wrong information could damage the project or hinder it in some way.

Data management is so important, following the order will only be for the best interest of the project

Risks and Assumptions are key in order to better measure the efficiency of our targets as we better understand our situations and ask critical questions. It is also important as we come up with risks we also ensure we come with measures to mitigate and manage our risks.

Additionally, Identifying the risks and assumptions may seem easy, but there is more to it than meets the eye. The Results Based Management approach puts a lot of attention to this aspect. When you’ve identified the possible risks, you have to assess what the probability is that each risk occurs.

Risks and assumptions are important components in any project, if managed well the success of the project is guaranteed.

I found the module to be very interesting and enlightening. Most especially, the logically flow helps me to understand the connection between input, output, outcome and impact. Thank you!

According to my thought, I would like to emphasize that the risks and assumptions are crucial for project designer to take time and consider on it because it will help the project designer and implementer know why and how to do in responding.

personally i believe risks are very important to be taken care of. The more we have risks handled the better to have our project stirred successfully.

Risks ad Assumptions
Risks and assumptions are generally things that might disrupt our plan of project.

In 2015 i was involved in planning and implementation of a microfinance project, village saving and loans association however, the project went successful but due to conflict and economic crisis facing the country - south Sudan, this project fall under inflation and close down of business centers due to fighting across this community. I believe the consequent were due an anticipated level of risk and assumption analysis. moreover, the CHILDS south Sudan opt to prioritized context monitoring which actual gave some reasonable early warning to the implementation teams. Finally, the organization decided to focus and anticipated inflation training and increase the loans that were projected to 10% to cope with inflation.

There need to be a way to monitor MEH's beneficiaries if they use the microloan money as expected and verification if the businesses are being implemented or upgraded as expected.

Risk and assumptions need to be taken care of to have a successful project. Evidence-based information gives confidence to funders and implementers alike.

Risks and assumptions should be clearly written.

true. I agree.

Risks and assumptions are all the things that might disrupt the M & E plan in he project. This may arise along the inputs, outputs, outcomes and impacts which leads to wrong.
This related to the questions like:
What could be going wrong?
Are the inputs leads to correct outputs?
Are the outputs goes to give good outcomes?
Are the outcomes leads to impacts?

Risks and assumptions are all the things that might disrupt the M & E plan in he project. This may arise along the inputs, outputs, outcomes and impacts which leads to wrong.
This related to the questions like:
What could be going wrong?
Are the inputs leads to correct outputs?
Are the outputs goes to give good outcomes?
Are the outcomes leads to impacts?

Assumption are beliefs without evidence, interesting 🤔

Identifying risks and assumptions serves to assess whether the goals and activities proposed are realistic and achievable in the given time frame and within the given available human and financial resources.
Risk could also be viewed as an uncertain threat that, in case of occurring, could have a negative impact in the completion of the project. An assumption, on the other side, is the necessary condition that will enable the successful completion of the project.

The same statement might be an assumption or a risk depending on the circumstances of your particular project. There is some degree of uncertainty to an assumption. If the event is negative and there is a low probability that it will happen, it can be stated as an assumption. If the event is positive and there is a high likelihood it will happen, it is also an assumption. One way to identify important assumptions is to perform a risk assessment and look at all the low-risk items. Most of these low risks are not worth mentioning, but some will have significant implications if events do not turn out as you think. These are the ones that you can document as assumptions.

There are two key characteristics of risks and assumptions. First, there must be some uncertainty to the event. If there is 100% chance of an event occurring, it is simply a fact. If there is a 0% chance of the event occurring, it is fiction. Neither are risks or assumptions.

Secondly, assumptions and risks are both outside the total control of the project team. If the event is within the control of the project team it is neither an assumption nor a risk. It should simply be managed to make it happen.

its absolute clear that in every project there most be risk and assumptions. we have had situations where a beneficiary of a product or service voluntarily decides to divert from the purpose or intension of the project and do something else which at the end leads to project failure. For example for the MEH case the microloan intended for business startup may finally be used to pay children's school fees thus making it difficult to actually evaluate the impact the the project.