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Assumptions form the basis of strategies, and those underlying assumptions must all be fully vetted. Testing strategic assumptions requires allowing those involved with planning to back away from the “givens” and challenge them to ensure the team is not assuming the rosiest of scenarios on which to base strategy.

Considering that the synonyms for the word “assumption” includes words like “hypothesis”, “conjecture”, “guess”, “postulate” and “theory” the concept takes on a more weighty meaning in the strategic planning process. Yes, assumptions are beliefs we take for granted, but they can be no better than guesses in many cases.

Assumptions are not always justifiable. Defending an assumption may be difficult, as facts are not always available to support the belief. That does not mean that they are incorrect, but it does underscore the challenge assumptions present in planning. In fact, assumptions are particularly difficult to even identify because they are usually unconscious beliefs

As a noun, risk means something that may cause injury or harm or the chance of loss or the perils to the subject matter. As a transitive verb, risk means to “expose to hazard or danger” or “to incur the risk or danger of”.

In strategic planning, the definitions applying to both the noun and the transitive verb usage are relevant. A risk might be an event or condition that might occur in the future. Likewise, we may risk financial losses if we bet on an assumption that is incorrect.

An unmitigated risk can become an impediment, so risks must be evaluated in terms of the likelihood they will occur and the impact they will have if they do occur. If the impact/likelihood of a risk is high “enough”, we should identify a mitigation path – as an unmitigated risk can become an impediment later on.

All risk can never be removed from a strategic plan, therefore business planning teams must approach risk management from a Cost / Benefit perspective. Business risk mitigation in planning can cost speed, but if risks are addressed early the organization can avoid future impediments.

How should risks, assumptions and impediments be dealt with?
Dealing with identified assumptions essentially becomes a task of translating the assumption to a risk. Once all risks have been identified, they must then be assessed as to their potential severity of impact (generally a negative impact, such as damage or loss) and to the probability of occurrence.

The assessment of risk is critical to make the best educated decisions in order to mitigate known risks properly. Once risks have been identified and assessed, the strategies to manage them typically include transferring the risk to another party, avoiding the risk, reducing the negative effect or probability of the risk, or even accepting some or all of the potential or actual consequences of a particular risk.

Taking the time and caution to identify, asses and deal with the risks and other factors will always be a worthy investment, even when time is of the essence. The vetting of these factors will pay off in smooth implementation of the strategic plan down the line. Your plan can proceed, free of the potholes and other roadblocks that, with a little planning, might well have derailed the best-laid plans.

This discussion is done to the best of my knowledge and lesson acquired so far on this project.

Thanks.

-the risks and assumptions are definitively key if we have to avoid suprises which can potentially surface during the course of our project. This is a profound lesson , a great take home which i got form this module

Hi...

The advantage of identify risks and Assumptions for our plan guarantee that we will easily uderstand past events and adjust this plan to be on the way of our targets!!!

The risks would be giving microloans to girls and then decide that they will not open business
An assumption would be assuming that all girls know how to start a business and that the money will be used wisely

They important to plan Unrealistic target are those target you can not realize for the example you want to start up a project you set up your team with out checkmating their capability at the end you didn't realize your target.

Unforeseen and uncontrollable events not identified during project planning would not have a strategic plan to eliminate or mitigate them. When they crop up it could devastate project implementation.

risks are outside of your control, might disrupt plan. assumptions are things you believe without much evidence.
you must always as what would go wrong for each level of the log frame .

Risks are out of our control according to political, economic, social, technology, legal and environmental conditions. Assumptions are the things that we believe without evidences.

I well take example form my project if I but target like:
Stop iodine deficiency in all regions of my country
This goal needs more skills, time and energy so the goal is unrealistic when the goal is something that requires more energy, skills, talents, and time than you have available in order to achieve it.

Without proper risk and assumption we can not see the accurate progress of the project as well as fail to success of the project.

How do you come up with effective risk and assumption on the log frame?

How do you come up with effective risk and assumption on the log frame?

Thank you so much it was really interesting lessons i learnt a lot it was very clear

Risks and Assumptions are also important to manage our project. Having a look on what can happens during the project allows us to handle better their consequences

Thank you so much it was really interesting lessons i learnt a lot it was very clear

can we do something definite to minimize the risk of this happening?

risk and assumptions are unforseen circumstance that can affect the implementation of my project , it could be new government policies , insecurity , pandemic example is the covid 19 pandemic , which can affect my project because it is an educational empowerment project which requires school to be open for us to have access to the school but a date is yet to be given for schools to be open

Risks are things outside of my control that may disrupt my plans.
Assumptions are my biases: things that I believe, without much evidence.

Risks and Assumptions are forms important part of project logical frame works. The factors which are outside the control of project, that affects the project to achieve certain expected result positively or negatively due to some factors or situations which is not supported by the evidences are referred to as assumptions and the some factors that affects achievement of the project results negatively are termed as the risks.
The risks and assumptions are developed (identified) right during the project design to minimize the biases and to ensure the expected project results are achieved. The work on it does not end there, it has to be monitored and validated through out the project implementation period like whether these identified risks and assumptions are affecting the project or are some of the risk became invalid with the situation or are some of new risk and assumptions arose with the time which may pose the risks to delivery of the project results.

Risks and Assumptions are forms important part of project logical frame works. The factors which are outside the control of project, that affects the project to achieve certain expected result positively or negatively due to some factors or situations which is not supported by the evidences are referred to as assumptions and the some factors that affects achievement of the project results negatively are termed as the risks.
The risks and assumptions are developed (identified) right during the project design to minimize the biases and to ensure the expected project results are achieved. The work on it does not end there, it has to be monitored and validated through out the project implementation period like whether these identified risks and assumptions are affecting the project or are some of the risk became invalid with the situation or are some of new risk and assumptions arose with the time which may pose the risks to delivery of the project results.

The first time I interacted with the outputs and outcomes, the two terms looked similar to me. I'm so glad that I now know the difference! Outputs are in my power, I may not have control over outcomes!

Risks are the things outside of your control that might disrupt your plan.
Assumptions are your biases;the things that you believe without much evidence.
Example: Imagine that you are planning to give a surprise visit to your married big sis and her family and you intend spending a month vacation with her. After informing your mum of your surprise she started highlighting some problems:

1. What if your sister Husband don't like such idea of staying up to a month.
2. What if they are presently facing financial instability/problems.
3. What if your sister doesn't want any visit for now.
4. What if your sister is facing financial problems.
5. What if your sister would prefer a week visit.
   Importance of planning for risk and assumptions ahead of time is:
6. So has to understand events and conditions that are unforeseeable that might affect your implementation.

Risk and assumptions analysis seems to be very important for the initial stage of project planning, implementation and ex post analysis. Such analysis is an important element of my M&E project concerning legal aid for foreign students at the University of Warsaw. Such analysis in my project should include personal factors, the willingness of volunteers to work as well as the interest of foreign students in provided legal assistance and support.

The first time I interacted with the outputs and outcomes, the two terms looked similar to me. I'm so glad that I now know the difference! Outputs are in my power, I may not have control over outcomes!

Just like driving on a new road, having a clear map helps one understand where bumps are for effective navigation

@Wumsy your analogy drives the point home.

The main difference between an assumption and a risk is that when we make an assumption, we expect that assumption will happen. If the assumption doesn't happen then the project is negatively affected. With a risk we anticipate that the risk might happen and thus negatively impact our project.

There are two key characteristics of risks and assumptions. First, there must be some uncertainty to the event. If there is 100% chance of an event occurring, it is simply a fact. If there is a 0% chance of the event occurring, it is fiction. Neither are risks or assumptions.

Second, assumptions and risks are both outside the total control of the project team. If the event is within the control of the project team it is neither an assumption nor a risk. It should simply be managed to make it happen.

the following examples for more clarity on assumptions and risks.

Statement

Assumption, Risk

We will have strong support for this initiative from our executive sponsor while Can’t tell if it a risk or an assumption. Depending on the project, there could be a high degree of risk in this statement (risk) or very little (assumption).

We will complete requirements before we begin design work while This is part of the project approach. It is not a risk or assumption because it is within the control of the project team.

Our vendor will complete their installation by October while Can’t tell if it a risk or an assumption. Depending on the project, there could be a high degree of risk in this statement (risk) or very little (assumption).

We must go to the moon to get the supply of meteor fragments that this project requires while This is not a risk or assumption because there is no risk involved. It is a fiction (0% true).

It is 60 miles from one project team location to the other while This is not a risk or assumption because there is no risk involved. It is a fact (100% true). (If it were not true it would be a fiction (0% true), but it would still not be an assumption or risk statement.)

Hi Colleagues,

Hi colleagues,
I am grateful for been a member of this study.
I have understand some uniqueness in identifying Risks and Assumption in project design.

It is important to identify the risks and assumptions in the operations of the project beforehand. By doing this, it gives foundation to the overall project.

Such are always important and sometimes they state the environment the project is supposed to operate under for it to be successful. This is important especially if the same project is to replicated in a different environment.

Risks: Factors outside of your control that could cause your project to go poorly.

Risks are the this outside outside one's control that might cause some problem in one's goal or activity while an Assumption are ones biases beliefs based on attaining a goal these beliefs are normally without evidence or proof.

Risk and Assumptions are important in the project planning process as it helps identify problems that would cause a hiccup in the project , thereof it is important to have a risk and assumption process in the various stages of project design.

The risk are when we designed the logframe of the project, there must be things that should be considering like which peoples are you going to settle, is it the place is secure for us to operates and will the community of that area will accept us.

Risks and Assumptions for pipe connectivity in Gusii Region;

• Residents may not want to pay for the connection fees.
• The topography of the area may be hard to maneuver in order to lay pipes.
• Resident might opt to use their borehole water.
• Resident may make illegal connections.
• Residents might be discouraged to connect thinking its a scam.
  Unrealistic targets
  Unrealistic goals can best be described as the goals you’ve set, yet they are almost impossible to achieve. While setting goals is important, you should set goals that are ambitious, yet attainable.
  Reasons as to why the targets maybe unrealistic:

• Not knowing the baseline historical data well.

*Relying on performance targets used in other jurisdiction.

• Trying to inspire aggressive change.

• Setting an impossible target in the hope the program will get halfway there or further than it would have gone otherwise
  However in life in order to achieve greatness one must take the risk and set unrealistic goals.
  Reasons to set unrealistic goals.

1. Unrealistic Goals Help You Eradicate the Fear of Failure

People who fear failure seldom succeed, because failure paves way to success as we learn much from failure.

‘Unrealistic’ goals are therefore good for you, because they make you get used to failure. When you set ‘unrealistic’ goals, you might fail several times, because these goals are not easily achievable.

Therefore, after a long period of setting ‘unrealistic’ goals, you will eradicate your fear of failure, because you will be familiar with failure.

2. Unrealistic Goals Increase Your Self-Confidence

Your self-confidence levels will increase when you achieve an ‘unrealistic’ goal. You will feel unbeatable, and you will start believing that no goal is too big for you. You will strongly believe in your abilities, and you will never fear huge challenges. Furthermore, you will be more determined and motivated to achieve big things.

3. Unrealistic Goals Make You Work Extremely Hard

Achieving ‘unrealistic’ goals requires large amounts of effort and dedication. Therefore, these goals will get you out of your comfort zone, and make you an industrious individual.

4. No one has all answers

No one can out rightly say that it is impossible to achieve a particular goal because no one has all the facts. People, who say that your goals are ‘unrealistic’, use past information as the main basis of their arguments. They tell you that it cannot be done because no one has ever done it before.

Many different methodologies can be used for data collection and analysis. Most are based around a core set of basic tools. These include interviews, focus group discussions, observation, photography, video, surveys, questionnaires and case studies. Data may also be generated through direct measurement, reviewing secondary data, and informal project / programme management processes.
They include:
Focus group discussions:Focus group discussions (FGDs) are facilitated discussions, held with a small group of people who have specialist knowledge or interest in a particular topic. They are used to find out the perceptions and attitudes of a defined group of people. FGDs are typically carried out with around 6-12 people, and are based around a short list of guiding questions, designed to probe for in-depth information. FGDs are often used to solicit the views of those who would not be willing or able to speak up at larger group meetings. They may also be used to access the views of minority or disadvantaged groups, such as women, children or people with disabilities.

Observation:At its most simple, observation involves ‘seeing’ things – such as objects, processes, relationships, events – and formally recording the information. There are different types of observation. Structured or direct observation is a process in which observations are recorded against an agreed checklist. Expert observation is usually carried out by someone with specific expertise in an area of work, and involves the expert observing and recording information on a subject. Observation may also be carried out as a participatory exercise. Where this is the case the intended beneficiaries of a project or programme are involved in planning an observation exercise, observing, and discussing findings.

Photography and video:Photographs and videos show still or moving images. Photographs can be used on their own, but are more often accompanied by written captions, providing additional information. Videos are often accompanied by a commentary. The use of photography and video has become increasingly common within M&E over recent years. This is partly because of improvements in mobile phone technology, which has increasingly enabled people to produce cheap, high quality audio-visual products.

Surveys and questionnaires:These are designed to collect and record information from many people, groups or organisations in a consistent way. A questionnaire is a form containing questions. It may be a printed form or one designed to be filled in online. Questionnaires may be administered in many different ways. A survey, by contrast, is normally a large, formal exercise. It typically consists of three different aspects: an approved sampling method designed to ensure the survey is representative of a wider population; a standard questionnaire that ensures information is collected and recorded consistently; and a set ofanalysis methods that allow results and findings to be generated.

The field of project management, much like any other area of expertise, has a unique vocabulary filled with acronyms and specialized terms. Three essential terms and concepts you must include:

Scope
Risk
Assumptions

It is an outline of these three essential project management terms and includes links and suggestions for additional reading.

Scope
In project management, scope is the set of boundaries that define the extent of a project. The scope describes what is to be delivered to the customer as a result of the project initiative.

Understanding the scope allows the project manager and project team to understand what falls inside or outside the boundaries of the project. If something is "not in scope," it is not factored in the planning work of the project. Activities that fall within the boundaries of the scope statement are considered “in scope” and are accounted for in the schedule and budget. If an activity falls outside the boundaries, it is considered “out of scope” and is not planned for. ​

Whether you’re a project manager or part of the project team, you’ll want to consider if something is in scope or out of scope as you move forward. As an example, imagine that a client has asked you to build a website. As you outline the scope (or set the boundaries) of the project, you indicate the following items as in-scope:

Site design and wireframe diagramming
Establishment of a test bed
Coding to the approved wireframe
Graphics development for the website theme
Testing and debugging prior to making the site public
During the course of the project, the client asks you to include a video overview of the company. The video is not specified in the scope of the project and is therefore out of scope. While you may be happy to do the video work for an extra charge, this will require a revision of the scope and cost and time estimation for the project.

In the absence of a clear and agreed upon scope document, the issue of the video might have become contentious between your team and the customer's representatives. A clear scope statement allowed you to defuse the situation and deal with a change in an orderly way.

So how do you determine what is in or out of scope? You’ll first want to outline all the details of the project you currently know based on discussions with the client or the project owner. Then you’ll want to make key assumptions that will drive what’s considered in or out of scope.

Assumptions
At some point in your life, you’ve probably been told, “Never make assumptions.” However, making assumptions in project management is an everyday activity. Assumptions help you define scope and risks and fine-tune your estimates for time and cost. Of course, it is essential to document and validate your assumptions.

Consider something simple, such as creating a book. Let’s say your friend has an idea for a coffee table book and has asked you to manage the project. His first request is for a budget so he can secure funding. As you define the scope, it’s clear that your friend is uncertain on many details, including page count, image inclusion, cover style and the weight of the paper to be used for the pages.

Since all of these factors will impact cost and production complexity, you will have to make assumptions about the specifications and validate those assumptions as acceptable or unacceptable to your friend. After further discussion, your friend tells you he plans to include 50 photos in the book. You can base your assumption on the 50 images or, anticipating that this number will increase over time, you can make an assumption that there will be between 75-90 pages with images.

You can see how assumptions directly affect schedule as well. For instance, imagine you’re leading a project at a park that involves building a swing set. When setting up your project, you are given the budget and assigned team members, one of whom is in charge of materials. As you create your schedule, you ask the person in charge of materials when the cement will arrive. This person replies that he’s not sure when the cement will arrive but that he believes it will be between June 1 and June 10. As you build your scope and schedule, you make the assumption that the cement will arrive no later than June 10. This example shows two benefits to making assumptions.

The first benefit is that the assumption of receiving the cement no later than June 10 allows you to plan for activities that rely on the cement arriving. The second benefit is that it provides the person in charge of materials with a deadline to deliver the cement, which he can then relay to his supplier. It has inadvertently set up a key deadline for the project to move forward.

Making assumptions creates benchmarks that are often revisited during the project to aid the project team in staying within scope, on time, and within budget. But what happens when assumptions are wrong? It is where the risk comes into play.

Risk
Once you’ve built your scope and identified the assumptions that are behind the scope and estimates, you will want to begin assessing areas of risk. Risk is the same in project management as it is in the real world; it is a hazard or chance that can create damage.

All projects contain risk, and if you are the project manager or project owner, it’s not only your responsibility to anticipate risk, but it’s also your job to communicate the potential impact of those risks to the project team and to prepare to mitigate the risks.

Risk comes in various degrees. Sometimes risk can mean the project will run slightly differently or take a small unexpected turn. In some cases, however, risk can lead to catastrophic results that turn your project on its head.

Let’s use the playground scenario from the above cement example. One of the risks is that the cement does not arrive by the assumed date of June 10. What are the potential effects of this risk? All of the successor activities that follow after the cement has been poured are delayed as a result of this problem.

Risks can be positive, as well. Consider the impact to the project if the cement shows up earlier than anticipated. While this seems like a positive outcome, it still creates a problem for the timing and sequencing of all of the other steps in the project.

Project managers work with their project teams to brainstorm and identify potential risks. They take the process a step further and look at the potential severity of the risk and its likelihood of occurrence. Furthermore, they identify those individuals best suited to identify when the risk is occurring, and they develop agreed-upon risk mitigation plans.

Many firms have detailed risk templates they have developed over time and from experience with other projects. Some industries have compiled risk profiles that are used as a starting point for risk analysis. Many industries practice very detailed statistical analysis for risk planning as well.

The field of project management, much like any other area of expertise, has a unique vocabulary filled with acronyms and specialized terms. Three essential terms and concepts you must include:

Scope
Risk
Assumptions

It is an outline of these three essential project management terms and includes links and suggestions for additional reading.

Scope
In project management, scope is the set of boundaries that define the extent of a project. The scope describes what is to be delivered to the customer as a result of the project initiative.

Understanding the scope allows the project manager and project team to understand what falls inside or outside the boundaries of the project. If something is "not in scope," it is not factored in the planning work of the project. Activities that fall within the boundaries of the scope statement are considered “in scope” and are accounted for in the schedule and budget. If an activity falls outside the boundaries, it is considered “out of scope” and is not planned for. ​

Whether you’re a project manager or part of the project team, you’ll want to consider if something is in scope or out of scope as you move forward. As an example, imagine that a client has asked you to build a website. As you outline the scope (or set the boundaries) of the project, you indicate the following items as in-scope:

Site design and wireframe diagramming
Establishment of a test bed
Coding to the approved wireframe
Graphics development for the website theme
Testing and debugging prior to making the site public
During the course of the project, the client asks you to include a video overview of the company. The video is not specified in the scope of the project and is therefore out of scope. While you may be happy to do the video work for an extra charge, this will require a revision of the scope and cost and time estimation for the project.

In the absence of a clear and agreed upon scope document, the issue of the video might have become contentious between your team and the customer's representatives. A clear scope statement allowed you to defuse the situation and deal with a change in an orderly way.

So how do you determine what is in or out of scope? You’ll first want to outline all the details of the project you currently know based on discussions with the client or the project owner. Then you’ll want to make key assumptions that will drive what’s considered in or out of scope.

Assumptions
At some point in your life, you’ve probably been told, “Never make assumptions.” However, making assumptions in project management is an everyday activity. Assumptions help you define scope and risks and fine-tune your estimates for time and cost. Of course, it is essential to document and validate your assumptions.

Consider something simple, such as creating a book. Let’s say your friend has an idea for a coffee table book and has asked you to manage the project. His first request is for a budget so he can secure funding. As you define the scope, it’s clear that your friend is uncertain on many details, including page count, image inclusion, cover style and the weight of the paper to be used for the pages.

Since all of these factors will impact cost and production complexity, you will have to make assumptions about the specifications and validate those assumptions as acceptable or unacceptable to your friend. After further discussion, your friend tells you he plans to include 50 photos in the book. You can base your assumption on the 50 images or, anticipating that this number will increase over time, you can make an assumption that there will be between 75-90 pages with images.

You can see how assumptions directly affect schedule as well. For instance, imagine you’re leading a project at a park that involves building a swing set. When setting up your project, you are given the budget and assigned team members, one of whom is in charge of materials. As you create your schedule, you ask the person in charge of materials when the cement will arrive. This person replies that he’s not sure when the cement will arrive but that he believes it will be between June 1 and June 10. As you build your scope and schedule, you make the assumption that the cement will arrive no later than June 10. This example shows two benefits to making assumptions.

The first benefit is that the assumption of receiving the cement no later than June 10 allows you to plan for activities that rely on the cement arriving. The second benefit is that it provides the person in charge of materials with a deadline to deliver the cement, which he can then relay to his supplier. It has inadvertently set up a key deadline for the project to move forward.

Making assumptions creates benchmarks that are often revisited during the project to aid the project team in staying within scope, on time, and within budget. But what happens when assumptions are wrong? It is where the risk comes into play.

Risk
Once you’ve built your scope and identified the assumptions that are behind the scope and estimates, you will want to begin assessing areas of risk. Risk is the same in project management as it is in the real world; it is a hazard or chance that can create damage.

All projects contain risk, and if you are the project manager or project owner, it’s not only your responsibility to anticipate risk, but it’s also your job to communicate the potential impact of those risks to the project team and to prepare to mitigate the risks.

Risk comes in various degrees. Sometimes risk can mean the project will run slightly differently or take a small unexpected turn. In some cases, however, risk can lead to catastrophic results that turn your project on its head.

Let’s use the playground scenario from the above cement example. One of the risks is that the cement does not arrive by the assumed date of June 10. What are the potential effects of this risk? All of the successor activities that follow after the cement has been poured are delayed as a result of this problem.

Risks can be positive, as well. Consider the impact to the project if the cement shows up earlier than anticipated. While this seems like a positive outcome, it still creates a problem for the timing and sequencing of all of the other steps in the project.

Project managers work with their project teams to brainstorm and identify potential risks. They take the process a step further and look at the potential severity of the risk and its likelihood of occurrence. Furthermore, they identify those individuals best suited to identify when the risk is occurring, and they develop agreed-upon risk mitigation plans.

Many firms have detailed risk templates they have developed over time and from experience with other projects. Some industries have compiled risk profiles that are used as a starting point for risk analysis. Many industries practice very detailed statistical analysis for risk planning as well.

The field of project management, much like any other area of expertise, has a unique vocabulary filled with acronyms and specialized terms. Three essential terms and concepts you must include:

Scope
Risk
Assumptions

It is an outline of these three essential project management terms and includes links and suggestions for additional reading.

Scope
In project management, scope is the set of boundaries that define the extent of a project. The scope describes what is to be delivered to the customer as a result of the project initiative.

Understanding the scope allows the project manager and project team to understand what falls inside or outside the boundaries of the project. If something is "not in scope," it is not factored in the planning work of the project. Activities that fall within the boundaries of the scope statement are considered “in scope” and are accounted for in the schedule and budget. If an activity falls outside the boundaries, it is considered “out of scope” and is not planned for. ​

Whether you’re a project manager or part of the project team, you’ll want to consider if something is in scope or out of scope as you move forward. As an example, imagine that a client has asked you to build a website. As you outline the scope (or set the boundaries) of the project, you indicate the following items as in-scope:

Site design and wireframe diagramming
Establishment of a test bed
Coding to the approved wireframe
Graphics development for the website theme
Testing and debugging prior to making the site public
During the course of the project, the client asks you to include a video overview of the company. The video is not specified in the scope of the project and is therefore out of scope. While you may be happy to do the video work for an extra charge, this will require a revision of the scope and cost and time estimation for the project.

In the absence of a clear and agreed upon scope document, the issue of the video might have become contentious between your team and the customer's representatives. A clear scope statement allowed you to defuse the situation and deal with a change in an orderly way.

So how do you determine what is in or out of scope? You’ll first want to outline all the details of the project you currently know based on discussions with the client or the project owner. Then you’ll want to make key assumptions that will drive what’s considered in or out of scope.

Assumptions
At some point in your life, you’ve probably been told, “Never make assumptions.” However, making assumptions in project management is an everyday activity. Assumptions help you define scope and risks and fine-tune your estimates for time and cost. Of course, it is essential to document and validate your assumptions.

Consider something simple, such as creating a book. Let’s say your friend has an idea for a coffee table book and has asked you to manage the project. His first request is for a budget so he can secure funding. As you define the scope, it’s clear that your friend is uncertain on many details, including page count, image inclusion, cover style and the weight of the paper to be used for the pages.

Since all of these factors will impact cost and production complexity, you will have to make assumptions about the specifications and validate those assumptions as acceptable or unacceptable to your friend. After further discussion, your friend tells you he plans to include 50 photos in the book. You can base your assumption on the 50 images or, anticipating that this number will increase over time, you can make an assumption that there will be between 75-90 pages with images.

You can see how assumptions directly affect schedule as well. For instance, imagine you’re leading a project at a park that involves building a swing set. When setting up your project, you are given the budget and assigned team members, one of whom is in charge of materials. As you create your schedule, you ask the person in charge of materials when the cement will arrive. This person replies that he’s not sure when the cement will arrive but that he believes it will be between June 1 and June 10. As you build your scope and schedule, you make the assumption that the cement will arrive no later than June 10. This example shows two benefits to making assumptions.

The first benefit is that the assumption of receiving the cement no later than June 10 allows you to plan for activities that rely on the cement arriving. The second benefit is that it provides the person in charge of materials with a deadline to deliver the cement, which he can then relay to his supplier. It has inadvertently set up a key deadline for the project to move forward.

Making assumptions creates benchmarks that are often revisited during the project to aid the project team in staying within scope, on time, and within budget. But what happens when assumptions are wrong? It is where the risk comes into play.

Risk
Once you’ve built your scope and identified the assumptions that are behind the scope and estimates, you will want to begin assessing areas of risk. Risk is the same in project management as it is in the real world; it is a hazard or chance that can create damage.

All projects contain risk, and if you are the project manager or project owner, it’s not only your responsibility to anticipate risk, but it’s also your job to communicate the potential impact of those risks to the project team and to prepare to mitigate the risks.

Risk comes in various degrees. Sometimes risk can mean the project will run slightly differently or take a small unexpected turn. In some cases, however, risk can lead to catastrophic results that turn your project on its head.

Let’s use the playground scenario from the above cement example. One of the risks is that the cement does not arrive by the assumed date of June 10. What are the potential effects of this risk? All of the successor activities that follow after the cement has been poured are delayed as a result of this problem.

Risks can be positive, as well. Consider the impact to the project if the cement shows up earlier than anticipated. While this seems like a positive outcome, it still creates a problem for the timing and sequencing of all of the other steps in the project.

Project managers work with their project teams to brainstorm and identify potential risks. They take the process a step further and look at the potential severity of the risk and its likelihood of occurrence. Furthermore, they identify those individuals best suited to identify when the risk is occurring, and they develop agreed-upon risk mitigation plans.

Many firms have detailed risk templates they have developed over time and from experience with other projects. Some industries have compiled risk profiles that are used as a starting point for risk analysis. Many industries practice very detailed statistical analysis for risk planning as well.

In regard to MEH, risks include:
At the input level: there might not be enough funds for all the girls to access.
At the outcome level: the girls may not want to receive the funds due to societal or cultural barriers eg men should handle finances, not girls or the girls may give the money to the male figures in their household.
AT the output level: the girls might spend the loans on other urgent needs such as rent, groceries or school fees for themselves / siblings.
At the impact level: girls may not have increased prosperity for their business. The businesses may flop, leaving them in even more debt.

Even though we need to identify risks and assumptions during the design phase, we also need to regularly monitor and check their validity.

Really informative and useful section! I enjoyed the scenarios, helping
"MEH" choose how to fill in their logframe. Helpful to get me thinking about my own.

When We are implementing a project there are many risks We are running into.
There are situations that happens and can lead us to a total collapse but must bê ready for it and take the right decision to Save The whole project.

This was useful.

Hello! Not sure what to do here. It says "discussion" and I need to reply to this module, but there is no video and no question. Help?

these might be aspects that might hinder your desired impact as u set up the project

RISKS AND ASSUMPTIONS - ARE THOSE PROBLEMS WE DO NOT HAVE CONTROL OVER AND MAY AFFECT THE PROJECT IMPLEMENTATION. WE NEED TO IDENTIFY THEM SO AS TO ADJUST AND ADAPT AS WE IMPLEMENT ALONG THE WAY. EXAMPLES ARE RESIGNATION OF KEY STAFF. ETC.

NO, RISKS AND ASSUMPTIONS ARE NOT PREREQUISITE IN PROJECT PLANNING BECAUSE WE NEED TO IDENTIFY THEM AS TO GET OURSELVES PREPARE AS WE IMPLEMENT.

It helps to understand the uncontrollable factors

Risk and assumptions are actually important to the success of a project. Sometimes your assumptions don't hold because of circumstances outside your control.

I found the risks and assumptions an important tool in the project design logframe. When I applied it to the project I am designing, it exposed that my input has a shortage. It got me rethinking my input.

Helps to understand the possible threats that might impact on implementation

Risk and assumptions helps us understand events and conditions that cant be seen at the start of a project,that may later affect our implementation hence giving enough time to make decisions at the right time.
We ask ourselves questions like;what could go wrong ?Is there anything that may prevent us from providing the inputs?
Thus its of great impart that we identify them before we start our implementation.

Hi...
What if there were no past events for the sake of first timers?

One risks and assumptions are identified, you can avoid these problems and take counter measures.

I have really understood this topic
In this context, a risk is defined as an uncertain threat that, in case of occurring, could have a negative impact in the completion of the Goal or Activity. An assumption, on the other side, is the necessary condition that will enable the successful completion of the Goal or Activity.
There are different types of risks that a firm might face and needs to overcome. Widely, risks can be classified into three types: Business Risk, Non-Business Risk, and Financial Risk.

First, it is critical to understand why unrealistic targets have been set. Some reasons you may encounter include:

Not knowing the baseline historical data well
Relying on performance targets used in other jurisdictions
Trying to inspire aggressive change
Setting an impossible target in the hope the program will get halfway there or further than it would have gone otherwise
Once you understand the underlying reasons for any unrealistic targets, you can let go of these goals or correct them. Correcting unrealistic targets is easy. By relying on available data, program managers can quickly make the case for more reasonable targets that still drive performance improvement by:

Identifying actual past performance
Confirming all trends and anomalies
Showing (not just saying) what it would take to reach the unrealistic target
Finding middle ground
Adjusting timeline for achieving the goal, if the target setter is unwilling to change the target
When leadership sets unrealistic targets, don’t get defensive. Aggressive targets are usually set by aggressive leaders who want aggressive improvement. That can be intimidating. It is not unusual for people to be hesitant when it comes to challenging an aggressive leader’s assumptions. No one wants to disappoint leadership or seem like a naysayer. When working for such a leader, keep focused on providing competent analysis your leader can rely on to recalibrate high expectations.

Leaders may also set unrealistic targets without having seen the baseline data, so be sure to show them the baseline and how it relates to existing targets. Be careful not to overcorrect unrealistic goals, especially during a change in leadership, nor to steer your recalibrated goals toward mediocrity.

Some girls will be refused by their parents

Religious leaders may refuse girls from their sectors to attend

Key members availability
Member's availability
Vendor delivery time

Some girls will be refused by their parents

Religious leaders may refuse girls from their sectors to attend

Key members availability
Member's availability
Vendor delivery time

this part is final stage in planning and is very important for risk mitigation.

Risks and Assumptions are vey good tool to illustrate the bias that can be occurred during the design phase. I prefer always to rule out the assumptions by looking for evidence for the relation between the inputs, outputs, outcomes, and impact. And that what I have done in my current project, where evidence was used to show the positive relation between output and outcome.

Risk And Assumptions identification is really very important for project. With the help of this tools we will identifying our upcoming hindrance in the project. And ready for upcoming obstacles. Thanks.

Risks and assumptions may not be in our control but when they are identified earlier we are able to prevent them in disrupting the plan of the project.

Risk and assumptions are critical aspects of the project design, therefore should not be taken with levity. It would form a great heads-up for the organization such that future surprises would be quickly taken care of.

Thanks a lot for this topic of risks and assumptions. they apply to almost all projects am undertaking

it is of importance to plan for risks and assumptions ahead of time is so that one can understand events and conditions that are unforeseeable. As these may affect your implementation, therefore giving you enough time to make decisions at the right time. A perfect example is testing for our assumptions and risks within our logframe by looking at our past events and seeing out of those activities we
had implemented some of the common assumptions and risks.
Then go through our beneficiaries and ask them what would be some of the assumptions that we had put along whether they fitted and finally look at the list
of activities that we did and listed some of our assumptions.

Risk and Assumptions is very important. The purpose of risk management is not to eliminate all risks. It is to minimize the potential negative consequence of risks. By working with risk managers, employees can make smart risk decisions to improve the chance of reward. It can help in the success of once project by all means.

risk:these are the positive effects of your projects.
assumption:these are things that you believe but that are not supported by evidence

Some of the logic model templates I have used in the past don't require risks and assumptions to be laid out, but I think it's very important. Knowing the risks can help you to address them, and understanding your assumptions can help you think critically about your project and if it's really viable.

Outcomes: The changes measured at the population level in the program’s target population, some or all of which may be the result of a given program or intervention. Outcomes refer to specific knowledge, behaviors, or practices on the part of the intended audience that are clearly related to the program, can reasonably be expected to change over the short-to-intermediate term, and that contribute to a program’s desired long-term goals. Examples would be “the percentage of clients in a stop-smoking program who are nonsmokers six months after the program ends” or “the percentage of married women, ages 15–44, using contraception one year after a family planning intervention.”
Outputs: The results of activities achieved at the program level, in two forms: the number of activities performed (e.g., number of service providers trained) and measures of service utilization (e.g., number of contraceptives distributed).
Problem statement: A statement in an M&E plan that describes the nature and extent of the problem to be addressed by an intervention. It clearly states the specific problem and includes a quantitative element that describes the magnitude of the problem and its impact on society. The statement should also include a description of other efforts that are addressing the problem and definitions of relevant terms. An example of a problem statement is: A recent situation analysis of District A demonstrated limited access to young adult reproductive health services. Young adults (ages 15–24) account for 30% of the population in District A, yet reproductive health service statistics show that only 5% of the people using the services were in this age range. Anecdotal evidence from district health workers suggests a high incidence of unwanted pregnancies and a high prevalence of HIV among young adults. As part of the national commitment to improve the reproductive health of young adults, the Ministry of Health will implement a five-year project aimed at increasing access to youth- friendly health services, by improving the infrastructure necessary to deliver such services, and —in partnership with the Ministry of Education and Youth—by focusing on reproductive health education for young people ages 10–24.

However, is it really an assumption? Can you imagine starting a project where the people and equipment were not available and there was a realistic possibility that they would not be ready when you need them – perhaps because another project needed to finish first? It is not too difficult to imagine that scenario. In that case, the same statement would definitely be a risk – not an assumption.

The same statement might be an assumption or a risk depending on the circumstances of your particular project. There is some degree of uncertainty to an assumption. If the event is negative and there is a low probability that it will happen, it can be stated as an assumption. If the event is positive and there is a high likelihood it will happen, it is also an assumption. One way to identify important assumptions is to perform a risk assessment and look at all the low-risk items. Most of these low risks are not worth mentioning, but some will have significant implications if events do not turn out as you think. These are the ones that you can document as assumptions.

There are two key characteristics of risks and assumptions. First, there must be some uncertainty to the event. If there is 100% chance of an event occurring, it is simply a fact. If there is a 0% chance of the event occurring, it is fiction. Neither are risks or assumptions.

Second, assumptions and risks are both outside the total control of the project team. If the event is within the control of the project team it is neither an assumption nor a risk. It should simply be managed to make it happen.

Risks and assumptions help us follow a realistic approach towards our project and lookout for misinformation/ insufficient information ahead of time in order to mitigate for it in our project. Addressing this will lessen the amount of unforeseeable outcomes we may encounter during the progression of our project.

Risks and assumptions help us follow a realistic approach towards our project and lookout for misinformation/ insufficient information ahead of time in order to mitigate for it in our project. Addressing this will lessen the amount of unforeseeable outcomes we may encounter during the progression of our project.

Risks and assumptions are a key part of project design because skipping this part may lead to back and forth errands when the project has been rolled out. Assessing the risk and putting down some assumptions also shows that the project manager is open minded and is ready to put their bias aside.
Having said this, dwelling too much on risk and assumptions may delay the project kick-off or create unnecessary fear of unknown.

I have learnt the importance of identifying risks and assumptions. They may be beyond one's control but the can still be identified and measured.
Risks and assumptions will also help me to assess whether they are hurting my project.

I have learnt the importance of identifying risks and assumptions. They may be beyond one's control but the can still be identified and measured.
Risks and assumptions will also help me to assess whether they are hurting my project.

Risks and assumptions are a key part of project design because skipping this part may lead to back and forth errands when the project has been rolled out. Assessing the risk and putting down some assumptions also shows that the project manager is open minded and is ready to put their bias aside.
Having said this, dwelling too much on risk and assumptions may delay the project kick-off or create unnecessary fear of unknown.

This module has been very effective and eye opening. It has been brought out in a way that is easily understandable. The method used enables ones to test their understanding and ensure they have mastered it well before moving on to the next module.

A risk is an assumption with a higher level of failure. It is an event that could happen with a notable probability and could affect the outcome of your project substantially. You have to take risks into account when planning your project as they might change the entire setup if the event actually occurs.

assumption is a statement that you assume to be true. Without assuming certain things planning would be impossible, as we never know for certain how the future will look like. We have to assume our government keeps working, our organization will keep existing and the weather will follow its usual pattern. Sometimes we look at these things as if they were facts, but in reality they are just assumptions, as we cannot be 100% sure. Here are a couple of examples of assumptions in a project proposal.

A risk is an assumption with a higher level of failure. It is an event that could happen with a notable probability and could affect the outcome of your project substantially. You have to take risks into account when planning your project as they might change the entire setup if the event actually occurs. They might even end your entire project if the occur. Here are a couple of examples of risks in a project proposal:

I understand that risks and assumptions are derived from th outcomes, impact and activities

One of the challenges that our team encounters is understanding of the if, then statements. We have to look at our logframe more closely and make sure that there are inputs, outputs and outcomes that directly lead to the goal. The if, then process was very helpful. We also determine tht we needed fewer goals.

Right now our program is also facing COVID-19 as a significant risk since our projects are in schools.

Risks and assumptions are popularly found in project and if not well monitored and controlled will definitely hurt the project leading to achievement of undesired goal

The two primary attributes of a risk are the probability of it happening and the impact (negative or positive) that it might have on a project. Assumptions are “factors that, for planning purposes, are considered to be true, real, or certain without proof or demonstration”.

The community may pose resistance to the change brought by our project since they are used to their old ways and lack education on the benefits brought by our project.

The project may run short on funds since the community has tendency of stealing bins that are installed to collect the dirt throughout the province.
we may have difficulty accessing certain areas since we do not have the means of transportation.

Has anyone read up to this point. I'd love to hear what your views are on the topic.

Assumption of Risk” is a legal theory that basically means a person knew a situation could be dangerous but voluntarily entered the situation anyway, knowing the risks. ... In situations where your injury is caused by a risk you voluntarily assumed, you are responsible.

• Risks and assumptions help me plan well for my activities
• Risks are the foreseen events that can affect and hurt implementation of the project.

it is important to identify the risks and assumptions at every stage of the logfrem, from the inputs, outputs, outcome and impact, proper identification of risk and assumptions in the project design will help in removing biases that can happen. therefore it is very important as an M&E expert to spend some quality time during project design trying to identify the risks and assumptions.

Then from this case to me it means if we had properly identified these risks we could have known how to control and make sure that we get to our outputs and then outcomes, therefore we need to spend enough time during project design trying to ask ourselves some questions as to what might hurt our project at every stage

Yes through indications and means of verification.
Indicators are what you will measure. Means of Verification are the tools that decide how you will measure progress. These tools could be surveys that participants fill out or record sheets that volunteers fill out.

To undestand about the problem,make a plan for changes et take a decision for the future

This module help us to understand more on how to design our projects and identify all possible risks

Nice Fact

impact :To improve food security of rural smallholders in Northern Bahr el Ghazal
Assumption: The security situation remains stable and the project areas remain accessible to the project staff and implementing partners.
Risk: the attitude of the local authority towards the project

An assumption is any project factor that is considered to be true, real, or certain without empirical proof or demonstration.
Risk is any unexpected event that can affect your project — for better or for worse. Risk can affect anything: people, processes, technology, and resources. Risks are events that might happen, and you may not be able to tell when.
The main difference between an assumption and a risk is that when a project manager makes an assumption, the project manager expects this assumption to happen. If the assumption is true, the project will be OK. If the risk happens, then the project may not be OK.

There are two key characteristics of risks and assumptions. First, there must be some uncertainty to the event. If there is 100% chance of an event occurring, it is simply a fact. If there is a 0% chance of the event occurring, it is fiction. Neither are risks or assumptions.
Second, assumptions and risks are both outside the total control of the project team. If the event is within the control of the project team it is neither an assumption nor a risk. It should simply be managed to make it happen.

Risks and assumptions help you to know how to maneuvere through the project by curbing them so that they have little to no effect on the project.

I really appreciate this module cause it has given me a deeper understanding on log frame and how to easily create it.

I have learnt a lot

Risks these are probably possible to happen during the project implementation but i might not be able to have control over them, but if in any way during the baseline survey i was able to anticipate them maybe i would have some remedies of how to overcome them.

Assumptions, i might not be sure they will happen but if at all they happen how am i handling them so that they hardly affect the projects implementation.

Knowing that is likely to make you fail is half way of passing.