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Creating a Theory of Change
Situation analysis
The first step is to develop a good understanding of the issue you want to tackle, what you bring to the situation and what might be the best course of action. You might feel that this is revisiting old ground, but we think it’s always useful to take stock.
Step 2: Target groups
Who are the people you can help or influence the most? Based on your situation analysis in Step 1 you can now describe the types of people or institutions you want to work with directly.
Step 3: Impact
Think about the sustained or long term change you want to see. This is where you describe what the project or campaign hopes to achieve in the long run. Think about what you want the ‘sustained effect on individuals, families communities, and/or the environment’ to be.Step 4: Outcomes
What shorter-term changes for your target group might contribute to impact? Outcomes happen before impact. In a services context, it’s often good to see them as changes in the strengths, capabilities or assets that you aim to equip your target group with, to achieve the impact you set out in Step 3. Time can be a helpful lens here. If impact is what you want to achieve over years, outcomes are more about weeks and months. You will want and expect to see outcomes changing more quickly.
