My Communities

In 2017 while implementing a livelihoods project, the beneficiaries were being supported with business loans to either start or grow their micro-businesses. According to the project implementation schedule, the business loans were to be issued in the month of September as the project started in June. The donor delayed in issuing the funds by two months, which distorted the original project implementation plan. The grants were finally issued in December, which coincided with the rain season. During the period, the country experienced some flash floods in one of the project sites which swept away most of businesses after the owners had restocked them with the business loans. Most of the target beneficiaries were from the slums, which are prone to floods. Being the staff in charge of the project, I was forced to undertake a rapid assessment to establish the validity of the cases. Using the assessment report, the organization negotiated with the donor to provide some extra funds to cushion the beneficiaries who had been affected by the floods. This helped in achieving the project goal.
From the experience, I learnt that it is important to critically undertake an analysis of the Political, Environmental, Social, Technological, Economic and Legal (PESTEL) context before any undertaking to make your decision from an informed view.

To identify risks and assumptions, it is helpful to think about the target beneficiaries and the context where the project is being implemented. Project managers need to undertake a PESTEL analysis where they analyze the prevailing trends in the political, environmental, social, technological, economic and legal environment, which can have an impact on the project implementation. Further, it is crucial to think about the socio-cultural, educational, financial and the economic background and status of the target beneficiaries. The information is helpful in understanding the target group and the target area as it enables them in making predictions of what might probably happen in the future and further, prepares them in making decisions concerning the project.

I was part of a team of volunteers who organized a campaign on drug abuse under a local NGO GYCLEi. We planned to mark the event by bringing various artist together to perform a song that send a strong message on drug misuse. Because of the activities we expect a lot of people to come out which resulted in doing the activity in an open field. We consider the weather for the day what if it rains what about temperature of the day this are all assumptions and risk. So we decided to get an open space with cover that protects from both rain and sun.

Strongly agree with the first statement because risk and assumptions might otherwise interfere with successful delivery of the project and lead to wasted resources and time.

I had done a community art project that included community consultations and we had assumed that the community members who would attend the consultations would represent community diversity, however, the people who showed up where from a very socio-economically homogenous background. Thus, we had to find a way how to compensate and engage more diverse populations. This delayed delivery of one of the outputs and the process as well. We had also not considered the time for review and approval of our project by the transportation department. This delay had almost resulted in our project not meeting the deadline! We had to mobilize our social network to ensure that the department reviews the project in time.

Risks are known to be unexpected events that can occur during the execution of our project and can be internal or external. So it's very important to identify all risks and assumptions during the identification phase. Most importantly, stakeholders' views must be taken into account and prioritized in relation to the implementation of the project. One of the situations of risk that I encountered was during the execution of one of the projects of our organization where it was necessary to build a borehole (a point of supply of drinking water) in the region of South Cameroon for the Bakola / Bagyeli indigenous community. Later on, after the execution of this drilling system, the indigenous populations kept on drinking water from their rivers. Therefore assess the stakeholders’ understanding of the project is a very important point to take into consideration.

Identification of risk and assumption is an important factor for the success of the project. It is also important to identify the risk and assumption in advance to avoid the surprises or unintended results during project planning and implementation.
I was involved in the implementation of disaster response project “Humanitarian Assistance to Flood Affected People” at Kendrapara district in Odisha in the year 2011. After flood a rapid assessment was conducted and the project started work with the worst affected Muslim communities. The relief kit consists of food items and cloth items distributed to the affected population. But the affected population didn’t receive the cloth items since the cloth packets consists of Dhoti which is not used by Muslims men counterpart. As a result relief work disturbed because of the risk and assumption was not identified before. Then as immediate measures Lungi instead of Dhoti included in cloth packets and distributed to all selected people.

In a certain data collection project, we had an unexpected risk of shortage of fuel for the vehicles on the ground. We then had to pause the project until things normalized.

@steveleo13 said in Module 2 Discussion: Risks and Assumptions:

@aymshelia said in Module 2 Discussion: Risks and Assumptions:

In my view, There are two key characteristics of risks and assumptions.
First, there must be some uncertainty to the event. If there is 100% chance of an event occurring, it is simply a fact. If there is a 0% chance of the event occurring, it is fiction. Neither are risks or assumptions.
Second, assumptions and risks are both outside the total control of the project team. If the event is within the control of the project team it is neither an assumption nor a risk. It should simply be managed to make it happen.

This is true

This very interesting as this is a True statement concerning Risks and Assumptions, with the chances of occurrence dependent on the findings.
It is very important in setting realistic targets, inline with the available funds, staff and baseline information.

In Fiordland National Park, in New Zealand, our Organisation was conducting trapping of introduced predators. We assumed that native alpine parrots, known as kea, would not be able to open boxes containing traps for rats and stoats, as the lids of these wooden boxes were secured with hexagonal headed screws. However, some kea learned to unscrew the screws and open the lids, leading to their being killed by the traps intended to help them. Following this, longer screws, that the kea could not unscrew, were used.

In one of the Conflict Management Programs, We had progressed with implementation and were deriving results from the great work we had been doing for nearly 2 years. Communities were engaging with one another more peacefully across line of divisions. Disputes were handles using a different methodology that was preventing the reoccurence of such disputes. The all of a sudden the government passed a bill into law that was in favour of one group against the other. And then it seemed as though nothing had been done. Conflicts returned in even a higher.

Identifying risk, it is paramount to keep in mind all possible threat that might be encountered in the course of the project

Once we had a food baskets distribution for families affected by war. we bought the food baskets and put the plan for the distribution. Unfortunately we didn't expect that we will not get permissions from the local authorities on time. the process of the permit took so long and we had to exchange the food because the expiry date of the food was getting closer with new quantities. The following times, we used to buy the food only after we get the permissions.

There was a time when we had to go to a certain village for an awareness program about the effects of Female Genital Mutilation (FGM). We arrived at the village and we found a good number of girls, women and some few men who were waiting for us. As we just wanted to start our program, we heard some commotions from our backs when we checked it was a group of old women who are the ones undertaking the (FGM) practices who were accompanied by the youth local militia. When they reached where we were they demanded us to stop the program and go back to town where we came from, as the program was trying to undermine their cultural issues. We had no other alternative but to comply with their demands, and everything for that day ended there.
What we failed to foresee is the cultural interference that our program could have, we never saw it coming maybe we could have asked for the police escort to that area just in case things will go south then we could have an alternative.
Planning and trying to assess the risks is very important as it will help to minimize the challenges towards implementation of the program and hence the program will be successfully. So we should always try to figure out some possibilities that could happen on the ground while we are preparing the paper work or the blue prints of the program

Once we have conducted an experiment with school going children. As we were doing RCT, we had to create a control group who will be working with the project all the way but won't receive any benefits. When we started distribution of the products, we did on spot lottery. However, the people who did not receive any products fro the project refused to cooperate with us. Then we had to sit back for a while and make some changes to the plan that won't hurt the project and satisfy both groups at the same time.

@fmbena86 said in Module 2 Discussion: Risks and Assumptions:

There was a time when we had to go to a certain village for an awareness program about the effects of Female Genital Mutilation (FGM). We arrived at the village and we found a good number of girls, women and some few men who were waiting for us. As we just wanted to start our program, we heard some commotions from our backs when we checked it was a group of old women who are the ones undertaking the (FGM) practices who were accompanied by the youth local militia. When they reached where we were they demanded us to stop the program and go back to town where we came from, as the program was trying to undermine their cultural issues. We had no other alternative but to comply with their demands, and everything for that day ended there.
What we failed to foresee is the cultural interference that our program could have, we never saw it coming maybe we could have asked for the police escort to that area just in case things will go south then we could have an alternative.
Planning and trying to assess the risks is very important as it will help to minimize the challenges towards implementation of the program and hence the program will be successfully. So we should always try to figure out some possibilities that could happen on the ground while we are preparing the paper work or the blue prints of the program

This is a very interesting story. Indeed, you could have target the group of women involved with FGM and also consider to make a compensation plan if they are at risk of livelihood loss.

@DirectGIS said in Module 2 Discussion: Risks and Assumptions:

In a certain data collection project, we had an unexpected risk of shortage of fuel for the vehicles on the ground. We then had to pause the project until things normalized.

Yes, transport is one of the basic preparation that the project manger should be prepared for.

Some of the beneficiaries that benefited from cash transfer meant for business to increase their HHs income on the OVC project implemented by my organization failed to use the money for business. Instead, they use the money to solve other HH issues. Hence, the desired outcome was not achieved.
Identifying risk and assumptions is a pro-active measures to be taken during project design. To do so, it is important to think of all the possible factors that can affect the project from achieving it's goal. This factors can affect the project at any of the stage during implementation i.e activities, output & outcomes.

Some of the beneficiaries that benefited from cash transfer meant for business to increase their HHs income on the OVC project implemented by my organization failed to use the money for business. Instead, they use the money to solve other HH issues. Hence, the desired outcome was not achieved.
Identifying risk and assumptions is a pro-active measures to be taken during project design. To do so, it is important to think of all the possible factors that can affect the project from achieving it's goal. This factors can affect the project at any of the stage during implementation i.e activities, output & outcomes.

To identity risk and assumption I think it is important to first asked your team at organisation level "what and if things do not go according to plan''. It is vital to include community partners and other stakeholders during project design so as to hear plenty different ideas that may actually help you in your planning and help avert risk and biases.

@Gracian said in Module 2 Discussion: Risks and Assumptions:

To identity risk and assumption I think it is important to first asked your team at organisation level "what and if things do not go according to plan''. It is vital to include community partners and other stakeholders during project design so as to hear plenty different ideas that may actually help you in your planning and help avert risk and biases.

I agree with you sir. Including key actors and stakeholders at the community level is very important as they know how things works in their community and it will help to also identify any norms that might affect the project

To identify risks and assumptions, it is helpful to think about the other stakeholders in the community. I was once involved in a project that would tackle safety and increased attendance of girls in schools around a range of issues. There would be various stakeholders to to ensure the programme was successfully implemented, we did not for see education unions not approving the programme and requested it's end. They saw it as an attack on their work and their colleagues as a result the education department could no longer support the programme and it had to be ended.

@MusaMohammedAbubakar said in Module 2 Discussion: Risks and Assumptions:

@Gracian said in Module 2 Discussion: Risks and Assumptions:

To identity risk and assumption I think it is important to first asked your team at organisation level "what and if things do not go according to plan''. It is vital to include community partners and other stakeholders during project design so as to hear plenty different ideas that may actually help you in your planning and help avert risk and biases.

I agree with you sir. Including key actors and stakeholders at the community level is very important as they know how things works in their community and it will help to also identify any norms that might affect the project

I also agree with your comment, Key stakeholders at community level may give their lived experiences that will lead one to know what works and what does not work. in so doing risks are avoided and general biases and assumptions verified.

@Unaisi said in Module 2 Discussion: Risks and Assumptions:

To identify risks and assumptions, it is helpful to think about _______ .

To identify risks and assumptions, it is helpful to think about all the potential impacts that can affect the project and plan ahead what relevant mitigation measures can be applied.

To identify risks and assumptions, it is helpful to think about all the potential events and conditions that can affect the project and plan ahead what relevant measures that can be applied. I remember my team and i were doing implementation on project on providing nutition and habitats for refugees coming from unstable parts of the country.Then one of us came up with questions like;
What if these refugees refuse to leave in this stable part o thee country who is new to them
What if the funds we have is enough for all these refugees
What if these refugees reject us
Thanks for sharing

@NolithaTiba said in Module 2 Discussion: Risks and Assumptions:

To identify risks and assumptions, it is helpful to think about the other stakeholders in the community. I was once involved in a project that would tackle safety and increased attendance of girls in schools around a range of issues. There would be various stakeholders to to ensure the programme was successfully implemented, we did not for see education unions not approving the programme and requested it's end. They saw it as an attack on their work and their colleagues as a result the education department could no longer support the programme and it had to be ended.

unfortunately the programme ended, engaging with necessary stakeholders before implementation can be beneficial as it incorporates them in project design and sensitise them on the pros and cons of the programme. In this case the Education Unions may give a suggestion on what may work for them, believe me they give you their side of the issue which may not be sensitive at all. As a result there will be increased buy-in to your initiatives. the bottom live here is to ask oneself this golden question "WHAT IF THINGS DO NOT GO ACCORDING TO PLAN?"

It is helpful to think about the risk and assumptions because it can disrupt your plan for each level for example in our project of improving the literacy level of young people with disabilities we have planed monthly session for them to study here in planning the date of planning we have to consider the climate because in Eastern province they can be time where it can rain whole week in planning for session ,renting room we have considered that.

Thank you for you response. Can you let us know if you fail to identifying the risk and Assumptions can prevent you from achivieng your Goals from in put level

@Ornela said in Module 2 Discussion: Risks and Assumptions:

@Unaisi said in Module 2 Discussion: Risks and Assumptions:

To identify risks and assumptions, it is helpful to think about _______ .

To identify risks and assumptions, it is helpful to think about all the potential impacts that can affect the project and plan ahead what relevant mitigation measures can be applied.

To identify risks and assumptions, it is helpful to think about all the potential events and conditions that can affect the project and plan ahead what relevant measures that can be applied. I remember my team and i were doing implementation on project on providing nutition and habitats for refugees coming from unstable parts of the country.Then one of us came up with questions like;
What if these refugees refuse to leave in this stable part o thee country who is new to them
What if the funds we have is enough for all these refugees
What if these refugees reject us
Thanks for sharing

Thank you for your response and Experience sharing it is really challenging.sometime in implementing the project for refugees it can happen such kind of rejection. that is why appreciate how you have taken into encount that.

@Gracian said in Module 2 Discussion: Risks and Assumptions:

To identity risk and assumption I think it is important to first asked your team at organisation level "what and if things do not go according to plan''. It is vital to include community partners and other stakeholders during project design so as to hear plenty different ideas that may actually help you in your planning and help avert risk and biases.

Thank you very much for your response but it is superficial i thing you should have given us the practical experience you have faced in your project implementation. for example for us we are planning to improve literacy level of young people with disabilities one of the risk we are considering if what if it will rain the whole week? this will affact the renting cost for room , it will also affect our schedule.

@demola2348 said in Module 2 Discussion: Risks and Assumptions:

I was part of a team of volunteers who organized a campaign on drug abuse under a local NGO GYCLEi. We planned to mark the event by bringing various artist together to perform a song that send a strong message on drug misuse. Because of the activities we expect a lot of people to come out which resulted in doing the activity in an open field. We consider the weather for the day what if it rains what about temperature of the day this are all assumptions and risk. So we decided to get an open space with cover that protects from both rain and sun.

@demola2348 That is a good example

Identifying risk before a project design is paramount in achieving desired goal.

correctly identifying the risk and assumption is very important if a project is going to succeed because if those assumptions go wrong then the outcome is going to be different or wrong. It is there important that why we may desire to attain certain outcomes and impact it can only beonly under a set of assumptions.

Stakeholders engagement is an invaluable process to track the impact of the project early enough, most especially when there are drawn from all relevant sections of the community where the project is to cover.

I happened to take part in HIV Counseling and Testing services activity in one community few years ago. The exercise was expected to last for ten days. But unknown to us, some factors could affect the deliverables which we could not take note of. The day we intended to conclude the exercise, it rained heavily and no volunteer could go out that day as such we could not complete the exercise that day as planned.

@Vio said in Module 2 Discussion: Risks and Assumptions:

I was in a team of a project where we were comparing the number of people who used electricity power and solar power and to our surprise we found that most people prefer to use solar than electricity due to the many accident caused by electricity.

Hey, @Vio, what did you learn from that experience that could be helpful to other learners taking this course? We would be glad to hear from you.

@Renaldo said in Module 2 Discussion: Risks and Assumptions:

I happened to take part in HIV Counseling and Testing services activity in one community few years ago. The exercise was expected to last for ten days. But unknown to us, some factors could affect the deliverables which we could not take note of. The day we intended to conclude the exercise, it rained heavily and no volunteer could go out that day as such we could not complete the exercise that day as planned.

Thanks a lot for responding, how did you overcoming that challenge of missing deadline?

@benuklemi76 said in Module 2 Discussion: Risks and Assumptions:

Stakeholders engagement is an invaluable process to track the impact of the project early enough, most especially when there are drawn from all relevant sections of the community where the project is to cover.

I agree with you @benuklemi76,

Yes, correctly identifying assumptions and risks ahead of time is one of the most difficult parts of project design.

This reminded me of a youth advocacy programme that we organized towards the end of last year (2018). We could not plan for a clash in our venue. Lo and behold in the morning that our programme was to take off, we had our venue changed by the authority concerned. It was hard to have to redirect participants to another venue after spending much on publicity with barely nothing left.

The major lesson we learnt was never to take anything for granted and that we should always try to ask ourselves critically about anything that can obstruct our project and think deeply and critically when planning or designing a project.

Yes, correctly identifying assumptions and risks ahead of time is one of the most difficult parts of project design.

This reminded me of a youth advocacy programme that we organized towards the end of last year (2018). We could not plan for a clash in our venue. Lo and behold in the morning that our programme was to take off, we had our venue changed by the authority concerned. It was hard to have to redirect participants to another venue after spending much on publicity with barely nothing left.

The major lesson we learnt was never to take anything for granted and that we should always try to ask ourselves critically about anything that can obstruct our project and think deeply and critically when planning or designing a project.

Every project must have some risks & assumptions. We faced some problems in terms of arrangements instead of beneficiaries. I work in an NGO and manage activities for orphans. Once we organised a motivational session for them. When we went to the venue and ask about the multi media for presentation there was no electricity. we delivered our lecture only without multi media.

Risks and Assumptions module was really great. In fact, it made me to reflect many program development processes that I have participated in.

Insurgency affected the impact of our poverty alleviation programme

In World Vision, in Fy15, all activities were timely planned but we did not realize that it was an electoral period whereby violences usually take place in Burundi. It was a high risk but not identified in order to reflect on mitigation strategies.

We were very surprised when in Quarter 3 of the Fiscal Year we weren't able to implement due to vilences within our communities. Many activities were not carried out as expected and many outputs were missed even the budget underspent. This an example of a risk

To identify risks and assumptions, it is helpful to think about about things that you might make along the way for instance there was a particular project with did back then when I was an undergraduate and it was more of a community outreach sensitizing on environmental cleanliness and sanitation and basically we forgot to put into consideration some Societal indicators such as religion and Culture so all these things are part of things that one must you know carefully understand basically

@Course_Operations said in Module 2 Discussion: Risks and Assumptions:

Share one instance from your organization when a risk or assumption took the team by surprise.

one instance when in my organization a risk or assumption took us by surprise was when we were going to distribute food items to IDPs in a particular community, we assumed a targeted population resident in the camp but underestimated the IDPs in the host community. We ran into a crowd doubling our assumption. We were asked to call off the distribution for that day and came back after a week

Share one instance from your organization when a risk or assumption took the team by surprise.

The time in my organization when a risk or assumption took us by surprise was when we were to distribute food materials to internally displaced persons (IDPs) in a particular community. We assumed that there will be little or no IDPs in the host community but to our surprise, the number we ran into was almost double our assumption and we were forced to differ the distribution for that day to a weeks time

@Rachel_Ramdhan said in Module 2 Discussion: Risks and Assumptions:

@Course_Operations said in Module 2 Discussion: Risks and Assumptions:

To identify risks and assumptions, it is helpful to think about what assumptions are being made and what are the risks in those assumptions. For example, in attempting to establish a university chapter of the NGO, a key assumption made was students would register as members and attend meetings. The risk was a significant number of students signed up as members but never attended meetings. Evaluating assumptions and risks could help mitigate possible limitations.

@Course_Operations
Brilliant. I cant agree less

@Rachel_Ramdhan said in Module 2 Discussion: Risks and Assumptions:

@Course_Operations said in Module 2 Discussion: Risks and Assumptions:

To identify risks and assumptions, it is helpful to think about what assumptions are being made and what are the risks in those assumptions. For example, in attempting to establish a university chapter of the NGO, a key assumption made was students would register as members and attend meetings. The risk was a significant number of students signed up as members but never attended meetings. Evaluating assumptions and risks could help mitigate possible limitations.

@Course_Operations
Brilliant. I cant agree less

Respond to this prompt after completing the content in Module 2.

Correctly identifying assumptions and risks ahead of time is one of the most difficult parts of project design.
Sample Post: To identify risks and assumptions, it is helpful to think about _______ .

Correctly identifying assumptions and risks ahead of time is one of the most difficult parts of project design.
I agree that one of the most difficult aspects of project design is to identify risks and assumptions ahead of time. On some of the projects managed by me, it would seems that identifying risks and assumptions was a weak exercise that lacked thoroughness or it was a complete after thought, that only was prioritized once people scrambled to figure out why something went wrong. Please note that identifying risks and assumptions is part of preliminary project design - like an assessment that identifies local interests and needs. It is also critical, based on my project management experience, that risks and assumptions not be identified in the vacuum of home or project office. In other words, the process to identify risks and assumptions must include input from potential beneficiaries, their community leaders and stakeholders. Note: in some operating environments (I.e., kinetic environment) it may not be possible to safely meet with local groups, but you can still aim to share draft listings of risks and assumptions with local groups electronically - perhaps even using WhatsApp.

Share one instance from your organization when a risk or assumption took the team by surprise. What did you learn from this experience? What tips for identifying risks and assumptions can you share with your peers?

One of my projects was a community conflict mitigation project. There was ample financial input to support an array of local community projects throughout the entire country. An overall objective was to identify and mitigate root-causes of conflict at the community level. Though risks may well have been identified under such a kinetic/fragile environment, the assumptions were less so. Thus, activity manifesting on the ground was limited/isolated - activity designed by for example a single NGO with a limited group of beneficiaries and limited outreach. Though the outcome may visually be appealing, the impact remained small and only significant to a small group. In other words the strategic objective to identify, prioritize and mitigate root-causes of conflict was not be addressed.

There had been a mis-reading on the capacity of local groups to understand and be able to apply "participatory processes" that would engage not merely one isolated NGO and its membership; but rather to understand and have capacity to engage a broad spectrum of local leadership (including sectarian leaders) in the process of identifying, prioritizing root cause of conflict- and proceeding to together agree on design of appropriate mitigating activity.

We immediately launched a capacity building curriculum on conflict resolution through participatory processes that identified and mitigated root causes of conflict.

Hugh C. Orozco (14 June 2019)

@Lykagema1 said in Module 2 Discussion: Risks and Assumptions:

Share one instance from your organization when a risk or assumption took the team by surprise.

The time in my organization when a risk or assumption took us by surprise was when we were to distribute food materials to internally displaced persons (IDPs) in a particular community. We assumed that there will be little or no IDPs in the host community but to our surprise, the number we ran into was almost double our assumption and we were forced to differ the distribution for that day to a weeks time

Hello "@Lykagema1",

You seem to be describing a fast-changing environment, which gives us pause to consider that assumptions are not fixed, and may have to be revised at regular and timely intervals. In your example, the assumption around a given estimate for the number of potential humanitarian aid recipients in a given locality may indeed have been appropriate at the time the project was designed; however due to the constant flux and movement of people (especially in kinetic environments), the population of equally needy IDPs had blossomed within a short time at the given locality. Did your project adjust or review their assumptions thereafter, to confirm that they were still relevant and accurate? Hugh C. Orozco (14 June 2019).

@Omotosho said in Module 2 Discussion: Risks and Assumptions:

To identify risks and assumptions, it is helpful to think about about things that you might make along the way for instance there was a particular project with did back then when I was an undergraduate and it was more of a community outreach sensitizing on environmental cleanliness and sanitation and basically we forgot to put into consideration some Societal indicators such as religion and Culture so all these things are part of things that one must you know carefully understand basically

Hello "Omotosho",
Some of our cohorts in other postings identify unexpected problems that led to restricted access to beneficiaries or a stalling /or/ stopping of activity all together. It seems that a broad and very real level assumption is that there is relative "peace and stability" in specific geographic area. Some cohorts go further to identify risks/assumptions that may disrupt the "peace and stability" assumption; for example, upcoming elections (that historically are known to cause violence in the periods leading up to, during, and after the elections. This serves as a reminder that some risks/assumptions are importantly linked. Overall, I understand from you, and from other cohorts, that it is critical to align project design and its risks and assumptions to the local context. I agree that culture and religion can affect participation in various project activity. Not understanding and making contextually relevant risks and assumptions is a sure way to derail and even stop project. Thanks for reminding us of his highly important detail, Hugh C. Orozco (14 June 2019)

@oolacosmas said in Module 2 Discussion: Risks and Assumptions:

To identify risks and assumptions, it is helpful to think about the Cause and Effect Diagrams. Cause and Effect diagrams are powerful. Project managers can use this simple method to help identify causes–facts that give rise to risks. If we address the causes, we can reduce or eliminate the risks.
Correctly put because when we are able to identify cause of risk and be able to address it as soon as possible we were be able to reduce the risk

Identifying risks and making assumptions about potential problem areas is helpful. My experience with the National Polio Immunization program in the North East of Nigeria was instructive. Although, there was the risk that some residence would not want their children to have the polio vaccine, but the organisers never factored in the fact that there maybe risk to life for the vaccinators and some of the vaccinators actually got injured and or narrowly escaped been lynched by villagers especially in remote areas.

To identify risks and assumption alot of planning is required to avoid wastage of capital,time and energy.I was part of a community development programme some years ago where the number of drugs we took was underestimated because the survey we made showed that the community was a small one.But on that day people from neighbouring villages came thereby making the drugs not sufficient for the villagers we came from.

To identify risk and assumption, impact has to be crafted out first before the activities. The activities backed up by evidence had to be placed into consideration - That's what's makes us an M & E expert. At a phase in the current project that I'm involved in, our sponsors stop sending in funds for the project and that affected our plan. Then they suddenly reimburse my company with enough fund to complete that project but the delivery time didn't change. We had to deliver the project as agreed with our sponsors at our own cost and this would have been prevented if we did proper risk and assumption.

@Course_Operations said in Module 2 Discussion: Risks and Assumptions:

To identify risks and assumptions, it is helpful to think about the factors which can go against the project. The project was to do a nation wide program under the aegis of the central government. The support from the central government was there but when we tried to implement the project at the state and departmental level, there was lack of acceptance and enthusiasm. Because of this we had to change our complete project approach.

@Rose1234 said in Module 2 Discussion: Risks and Assumptions:

@oolacosmas said in Module 2 Discussion: Risks and Assumptions:

To identify risks and assumptions, it is helpful to think about the Cause and Effect Diagrams. Cause and Effect diagrams are powerful. Project managers can use this simple method to help identify causes–facts that give rise to risks. If we address the causes, we can reduce or eliminate the risks.
Correctly put because when we are able to identify cause of risk and be able to address it as soon as possible we were be able to reduce the risk

Yes, identifying the cause of the risk and able to address will help the project be implemented. But assumptions can be difficult to handle, one because like risk , its out of our control and second because, there is no evidence for it. Addressing this by keeping scenario like situation, if this happens then what will we do can help us reduce the impact of assumptions as well.

To identify risks and assumptions, it is helpful to think about your stakeholders. They influence mostly to ypur project design and progress.

@HughOROZCO
Thanks a million for your question, it meant so much to me. There are 7 local governments in the state that are hit by the herdsmen onslaught leading to over 300,000 IDPs, thus the IDP camps are over 50 across the state. However, for the experience i just mentioned, my organization was able to review its assumptions and that has helped in subsequent distributions across the other camps. Thanks

One example of Risks that can hamper our time and energy which we faced is as follows-

We had planned a training for our staff of 35 people. We had asked and booked a government training center. But before 3 days to training the concerned person told us that they had received a order from their higher authorities and the center was booked for next 15 days. We were stuck as we could not postponed our training. We had given advance to vendors for the food and other logistics of the training.

So we searched and finalsed a private place and took the training. From this incidence, we learned that we should keep a "Plan B" ready which can be implemented if circumstances so arise. So that our ultimate goal for that activity (Ex. training in our case) is reached.

It helps to think about risks and assumptions that are associated with the whether especially when your project has to do with out-door events like awareness rallies or walks. Just assuming that the whether will be cool because it is a dry season once change our expected outcome in a project. It turned out to be a rainy day so people did not show up.

It is very helpful to think about the risk of a bad whether especially when your project activities has an out-door event like rallies and awareness walk. Assuming a good whether in a dry season almost change our outcome in one of our project activities.

one of our project Children Tariro had changed its approach to A family centered approach.Therefore project manager assumed that only CT beneficiaries families will attend the profiling excise since we wanted house hold information for each beneficiary however those in the village who heard about the ct project also came this became our risk that we never assumed.

Meaning risk and assumptions are important to avoid future problems during project activities.

I'm currently working on a project which has a lot of partnership with the local, state and federal government at different levels. This has given me opportunity to come up with so many risks and assumptions in terms of unpredictable nature of government policies. this has help us in many ways to avoid or mitigate the potential risks or assumption of the project.

I think to identify risks and assumptions it's useful to list all the things/circumstances required to complete the activities programmed. with that list it will be easier to review each item on the list and assess if there may be any reason why it couldn't occur and how likely is that to happen. I think that helps uncover the underlying assumptions that we are making and potential risks.

I was working in an HIV prevention project with sex workers. One of the main activities we designed programmed were workshops that would provide information on HIV/STIs and how to prevent them. We found that initially attendance was very low despite our marketing strategy and offering free condoms. We found two that the two main reasons we had low attendance were: women would need to be reimbursed for transportations costs and they didn't feel they needed any more information on sexual health (despite the fact that our initial survey showed there were still lots of myths). We realised they were more interested in receiving information that they perceived more relevant such as information on their rights, how to deal with police harassment and how to manage finances. So we incorporated these subjects into our workshops and attendance increased dramatically. We also had to set aside a transportation subsidy for all the women attending.

@linnhtinhla77 said in Module 2 Discussion: Risks and Assumptions:

Yes I agreed that, the important to identification of risk and assumptions, almost of peoples forget to consider about external risks and assumption on project because when developing preparation of project they are more consider about to success and meet the project objectives

@linnhtinhla77, when you ignore to identify risks and assumptions in advance, you risk to fail in the creation a comprehensive understanding that can be used to influence stakeholders.

@KUZIVAKWASHE said in Module 2 Discussion: Risks and Assumptions:

Meaning risk and assumptions are important to avoid future problems during project activities.

Hey @KUZIVAKWASHE, I agree with you that Risks and Assumptions identification can be used to avoid surprise in the future, and can be used also to create better project decisions.

@arefevaolgaevg said in Module 2 Discussion: Risks and Assumptions:

To identify risks and assumptions, it is helpful to think about your stakeholders. They influence mostly to ypur project design and progress.

I agree with you, @arefevaolgaevg, It's really very helpful to influence your stakeholders,

@Bmoraa said in Module 2 Discussion: Risks and Assumptions:

Identifying risk assumptions its better to think about the end results. Good risk identification will create good project communication thus good decisions will be made

@Bmoraa, I agree with you good risk identification creates good project....

@AMAGAJU said in Module 2 Discussion: Risks and Assumptions:

once risks are identified, it is a better way to avoid all the negative impacts, so identifying risks is the crucial parts for the project to be successful

Identification of risk and its mitigation strategy is continues process till end of the Porject. For example,after finalization of risk register at planning phase, a number other risk you may face which are not listed in your identified list. So, identification and mitigation a risk is a continuous process.

@Course_Operations said in Module 2 Discussion: Risks and Assumptions:

Respond to this prompt after completing the content in Module 2.

Correctly identifying assumptions and risks ahead of time is one of the most difficult parts of project design.

Share one instance from your organization when a risk or assumption took the team by surprise. What did you learn from this experience? What tips for identifying risks and assumptions can you share with your peers?

Sample Post: To identify risks and assumptions, it is helpful to think about _______ .

More than 80% success is depend on successful identification, assumption and mitigation strategies of risk management.

We tried to implement interventions for mini-grids even though in some countries there was a regulatory environment which predicted or delayed the implementation. We should have taken this into consideration from the beginning, so that we could have planned for the delay or impossibility to implement interventions..

In identifying risks and assumptions it is important to carry out situational analysis at the onset of every project. It exposes the team to realities of the communities at which their project is targeted. I believe this gives cues of possible risk factors to be considered in project design and implementation. Employing an inclusive approach to designing projects is pivotal to project success as it ensures that lasting solutions are found to the challenges of the people at which the programme is targeted.
It is not a personal experience as I recently graduated and I'm yet to secure an internship position but I heard of a high-yeilding variety of Sorghum developed and introduced to Gombe State. The variety was developed without a proper understanding of the custom of the community members, the common practise in that community is to cook excess Sorghum at night and keep the left over until morning so they can eat it before heading to their farms. Unfortunately this variety though high yielding spoils on time and doesn't last till morning if cooked the previous night. The community members had to reject the innovation. A participatory approach to designing this solution would have helped the project management team identify possible risks before implementation

Proper situational analysis when carried out at the onset of a project gives cues on possible risk factors which could be factored into the process of programme design and implementation. An inclusive approach to project design will not only help in mitigating risk factors that could truncate programme success but also ensure sustainability that is continuity of the project.

We all hope for the best before we embark on a project but sometimes the contrary happens .It is always good to be prepared for such as some of the things are beyond our controll.We had a project that aimed at helping the street kids resume homes.We were ready to restore them even to children homes to those who were either did not have a home or were not willing.We assumed that they will all appreciate this idea and cooperate but the contrary happened.A good number rejected and wanted to given money all the time.This made us change our method of operation and we started a counseling programme.

To identify risks and assumptions, it is helpful to think about:

1. Technical staff or authorities from the counterpart which are programs or projects focal points are frequently changed.
2. Social conflicts in the program or project areas.
3. Adverse weather events in the program or project areas.
4. Cultural traditions from local families and communities.
5. Financial management and accounting.
6. Technical expertise about the program and project.

To identify risks and assumptions, it is helpful to think about:

1. Technical staff or authorities from the counterpart which are programs or projects focal points are frequently changed.
2. Social conflicts in the program or project areas.
3. Adverse weather events in the program or project areas.
4. Cultural traditions from local families and communities.
5. Financial management and accounting.
6. Technical expertise about the program and project.
7. Social and environmental consequences of the program or project. Safeguards and a specific plan must be made.

we all hope for the best towards a project but things happen beyond our control at times.We had a project that aimed at restoring street children back to their homes.We invested and went to them with a hope they will all appreciate.Some refused claiming that the street life is better while some wanted to be given money all the time.

i remebered being part of an organisation that was involved in getting tricycles for local inhabitants to navigate through difficult terrain. suddenly, for one reason or the other the newly elected government placed a ban on all tricycles in the area, after all efforts have been made in purchasing tricycles and they all were already in the warehouse ready for distribution. That for me was was a huge unforeseen RISK.

@Course_Operations said in Module 2 Discussion: Risks and Assumptions:

Respond to this prompt after completing the content in Module 2.

Correctly identifying assumptions and risks ahead of time is one of the most difficult parts of project design.

Share one instance from your organization when a risk or assumption took the team by surprise. What did you learn from this experience? What tips for identifying risks and assumptions can you share with your peers?

Sample Post: To identify risks and assumptions, it is helpful to think about _______ .

To identify risks and assumptions, it is helpful to think about if/then statement.

One of the assumptions we had made while introducing mental health services to low income communities was that the community would not be welcoming and it would take us a year to raise proper awareness. However, we were taken by surprise by the fact that individuals actually came up to us and requested psychological and psychiatric services, for which we hadn't planned or budgeted. We had to shift around some activities and create a new budget for these clinical services, and introduce counseling sessions within 6 months of project initiation.

I believe effective situational analysis at the onset of a project is pivotal to program success. It gives a clue into possible risk factors to be considered in project design. Furthermore, a participatory approach to project design is key to predicting possible risks and assumptions of a project and enhancing continuity of the project. I do not have a personal instance but I heard about a project in Gombe which was centred on providing high-yielding variety of Sorghum to farmers to boost their production and improve their financial state. When community members got the Sorghum, they cook excess at night and keep the left over until morning to eat before going to their farms as their custom is but the new variety spoils before morning and led to wastage. This caused a rejection of the commodity. The failure of this project is due to lack of proper planning. The custom of the community members was not factored into project design. A good grasp of the reality of the community helps predict relevant risks and assumptions to be considered.

@Course_Operations said in Module 2 Discussion: Risks and Assumptions:

Respond to this prompt after completing the content in Module 2.

Correctly identifying assumptions and risks ahead of time is one of the most difficult parts of project design.

Share one instance from your organization when a risk or assumption took the team by surprise. What did you learn from this experience? What tips for identifying risks and assumptions can you share with your peers?

Sample Post: To identify risks and assumptions, it is helpful to think about _______ .

I remember a time we for medical outreach to the Green House resettlement just outside the back gate of the University of Nigeria, Nsukka, we planned on running some test for the settlers, but we did not into consideration the category of persons we will run the test for also considering the fact that we hadn't enough strips and other materials to cover every body in the area. At some point we ran out of materials and we had to go get more materials after some hours to continue the exercise.
I learnt from this scenario that in planning for a project, it is best to narrow down to a reasonable extent who the beneficiaries of the impact would be and making adequate preparations before kick-starting the project.

I was part of an organisation implementing Child Sponsorship Programme with a community benefit approach. This meant while we have individual children enrolled on the programme, benefits were going toward system improvement for better service delivery for the whole community. From inception risk had been identified looking socio-economic, religious and cultural factors and partnership related risks and assumptions. What we did not foresee was that in the area we were working a religious team would bring a replica of our programming only they would do direct child benefits. This affected child retention and affected programme budget because most children left for individual benefits. the effects were bad.

What we did was do a study which revealed that the community didn't fully understand the programme as benefiting the community through a single child. To mitigate this we started community sensitization and awareness meetings on the programme. Further it taught us that we need to be more vigilant to possibilities of partnership. if we had paid attention in good time we would approached the religious team and asked to partner but then they would have been doing individual benefits for children and families who were in dire situations.

The other lesson is that no matter how well make assumptions and identify risks at every step of programme design and implementation there will be unforeseeable circumstance that will arise and affect your programming. Thus it is always good to be alert and moving with the changing tides.

@Rose1234 said in Module 2 Discussion: Risks and Assumptions:

@oolacosmas said in Module 2 Discussion: Risks and Assumptions:

To identify risks and assumptions, it is helpful to think about the Cause and Effect Diagrams. Cause and Effect diagrams are powerful. Project managers can use this simple method to help identify causes–facts that give rise to risks. If we address the causes, we can reduce or eliminate the risks.
Correctly put because when we are able to identify cause of risk and be able to address it as soon as possible we were be able to reduce the risk

You're absolutely right. Cause and effect diagram is another way to easily identify risk.

@Loraini said in Module 2 Discussion: Risks and Assumptions:

To identify risks and assumptions, it is helpful to think about all possibilities of what will negatively affect the outputs, inputs and outcome of your project. It can vary from natural, social, political, cultural, financial causes. In one of our project, one of the risks that the project had to deal with was the unpredicted category 5 cyclone that encountered the project just when the project had started making it difficult for communities to commit because they were faced with problems that needed urgent attention such as improving social services, health and basic needs. The project had to spend some money to unplanned activities to help these communities back on their feet.

To identify risks and assumptions, it is helpful to think about all possibilities of what will negatively affect the outputs, inputs and outcome of your project. It can vary from natural, social, political, cultural, financial causes. In one of our project, one of the risks that the project had to deal with was the unpredicted category 5 cyclone that encountered the project just when the project had started making it difficult for communities to commit because they were faced with problems that needed urgent attention such as improving social services, health and basic needs. The project had to spend some money to unplanned activities to help these communities back on their feet.

@belindamndebele2 said in Module 2 Discussion: Risks and Assumptions:

It is always important to outline the risks that are assumed to occur in any project to help prepare for any unforeseen circumstances or challenges. preparing for risks gives an organization enough time or plan B to have a back up plan should anything go wrong during the production or delivery of products.
In the organization that i work in there was once an encounter of a community strike next to the warehouse where the cooperatives produced school uniform, normally when something like this happens it disturbs and delays the production and delivery time of the school uniform which affects the beneficiaries and the cooperatives do not get paid in time.
But because the Department has acquired experience in this kind of unexpected encounters, they then created an additional warehouse where there is an extra group producing half of the total number of the uniform just in case, this has assisted a lot in terms of fastening the production period, the safety of the women in cooperatives and delivery men. It also helped the women in terms of their health issues, they used to be overworked but its better now. So preparation is always better than dealing with the after effects or consequences. Module+2+-+Logframe.pdf

Rish and assumptions are part of project management cycle and they have intended and unintended results. Once i was working with OXFAM GB, we were implementing a research based project in an IDPS camp and at the time of survey we were not able to fulfill the sampling requirements as the IDPs were not permanent and they used to move in and out of the camp which effected sampling so we decided to have hundred percent household surveys to meet the challenge.

@Tiga said in Module 2 Discussion: Risks and Assumptions:

@apostledavid58 said in Module 2 Discussion: Risks and Assumptions:

I was once part of a LoveLife Ngo tram and we headed to rural communities to distribute condoms and pass on some sex-health information...we had roughly estimated a turn up of less that 100 participants and the local community hall. But to pur Suprise we had ran out of Flyers and condom packs to give away....

So the your assumption that a few participants biased the project and made you run out of supplies? What exactly did you do to mitigate the risk?

When ever your assumption is fail like this, You need to make a backup plan which will support in case of assumption fail.

@EmmanuelChinonyeNdubuisi said in Module 2 Discussion: Risks and Assumptions:

@Rose1234 said in Module 2 Discussion: Risks and Assumptions:

@oolacosmas said in Module 2 Discussion: Risks and Assumptions:

To identify risks and assumptions, it is helpful to think about the Cause and Effect Diagrams. Cause and Effect diagrams are powerful. Project managers can use this simple method to help identify causes–facts that give rise to risks. If we address the causes, we can reduce or eliminate the risks.
Correctly put because when we are able to identify cause of risk and be able to address it as soon as possible we were be able to reduce the risk

You're absolutely right. Cause and effect diagram is another way to easily identify risk.

Risk and assumption is hypothetical and one need to focus on real problems that may face a project, this will allow to take premeasure.

To identify risks and assumptions, it is helpful to thing about the possible solution that to be incurred to achieve the respective result

It's very important to take note of those who will benefit from your project. Think and bring up anything that can cause a hindrance to the project.
I remember a time we did a project in a rural community. We expected the project to run smoothly since it was health base but one major challenge we encountered was language barrier. We honestly didn't take that into consideration while planning.

@Omotosho said in Module 2 Discussion: Risks and Assumptions:

To identify risks and assumptions, it is helpful to think about about things that you might make along the way for instance there was a particular project with did back then when I was an undergraduate and it was more of a community outreach sensitizing on environmental cleanliness and sanitation and basically we forgot to put into consideration some Societal indicators such as religion and Culture so all these things are part of things that one must you know carefully understand basically

7 ways to idetify risk
Interviews. Select key stakeholders. Plan the interviews. Define specific questions. Document the results of the interview.
Brainstorming. I will not go through the rules of brainstorming here. However, I would offer this suggestion. Plan your brainstorming questions in advance. Here are questions I like to use:
Project objectives. What are the most significant risks related to [project objective where the objective may be schedule, budget, quality, or scope]?
Project tasks. What are the most significant risks related to [tasks such as requirements, coding, testing, training, implementation]?
Checklists. See if your company has a list of the most common risks. If not, you may want to create such a list. After each project, conduct a post review where you capture the most significant risks. This list may be used for subsequent projects. Warning – checklists are great, but no checklist contains all the risks.
Assumption Analysis. The Project Management Body of Knowledge (PMBOK) defines an assumption as “factors that are considered to be true, real, or certain without proof or demonstration.” Assumptions are sources of risks. Project managers should ask stakeholders, “What assumptions do you have concerning this project?” Document these assumptions and associated risks.
Cause and Effect Diagrams. Cause and Effect diagrams are powerful. Project managers can use this simple method to help identify causes–facts that give rise to risks. If we address the causes, we can reduce or eliminate the risks.
Nominal Group Technique (NGT). Many project managers are not familiar with the NGT technique. It is brainstorming on steroids. Input is collected and prioritized. The output of NGT is a prioritized list of risks.
Affinity Diagram. This technique is a fun, creative, and beneficial exercise. Participants are asked to brainstorm risks. I ask participants to write each risk on a sticky note. Then participants sort the risks into groups or categories. Each group is given a title.

@apostledavid58 said in Module 2 Discussion: Risks and Assumptions:

I was once part of a LoveLife Ngo tram and we headed to rural communities to distribute condoms and pass on some sex-health information...we had roughly estimated a turn up of less that 100 participants and the local community hall. But to pur Suprise we had ran out of Flyers and condom packs to give away....

@apostledavid58 said in Module 2 Discussion: Risks and Assumptions:

I was once part of a LoveLife Ngo tram and we headed to rural communities to distribute condoms and pass on some sex-health information...we had roughly estimated a turn up of less that 100 participants and the local community hall. But to pur Suprise we had ran out of Flyers and condom packs to give away....

That's why good planing is required.

@Course_Operations said in Module 3 Discussion: Unrealistic Targets:

Respond to this prompt after completing the content in Module 3.

Setting ambitious yet achievable targets can be difficult. Have you ever been asked to reach a target that was either too high or too low? How did you respond to the situation? What advice would you offer other learners who may be asked to work towards unrealistic targets?

Sample Post: One time that I was asked to reach an unrealistic target was ______ . I responded by ______ .
I haven't been able to. I've not have a practical working field environment before. But if I'm to reach high targets I'll try to look if the indicators are possible to be achieved at that date or if they can be all contributed to reach that target. If it can't I'll make sure I look for reasons backed up with previous related successful projects or researches on related projects that can help prove that the targets are too high and unattainable and therefore need adjustment. With my proof I believe adjustments will be considered by donors or team leaders or managers in charge of the project.

I Currently work for Pro-Health international, As a procurement and Supply chain pharmacy intern.
Our main objective is to deliver qualitative and quantitative healthcare services to the less privileged in the rural areas at little or no cost.
Every project is unique as they always say; we were so flabbergasted when some medications that were supposed to last for the one week project got exhausted on the second day because there was a particular ailment that was predominant in the locality. There was no funds to procure extra medications, tried to raise money but to no avail. Looking at the other remaining medications some were not fast moving, so I put on my thinking cap, ran to the nearest pharmacy store in the area and begged the owner of the pharmacy to come give us the medications we needed at that point in exchange for some of our non-fast moving drugs on that project. We sat down did calculation so no one exploits the other. Case solved. Patients were happy, Everyone was happy .

What I learnt from this is to know what assumptions are been made and what are the risks in those assumptions . Then you can either mitigate the risk or create a stand-by backup plan. For example coming with our own extra supplies. If we end up not using them then we would carry it back then utilize them on some other projects.

@nafulasmamai said in Module 2 Discussion: Risks and Assumptions:

@Course_Operations said in Module 2 Discussion: Risks and Assumptions:

To identify risks and assumptions, it is helpful to think about _______ .

To identify risks and assumptions, it is helpful to think about situations which are either conducive
to the achievement of the project’s objectives, or which are adverse, and the project has to find its own ways of dealing with them adequately.

I agree with you, the risk management it core issue of project management, despite whatever the outcome, so it needs to managed very diligently.

In one of our project cycles we had a timeline of the number of days to deliver health commodities which usually takes place within weekdays Monday to Friday. While planning we didnt know government was going to declare a public holiday. And the holiday was for two days. This affected our delivery schedule and hence delayed our target of ending the project.

one of the risk we came across as an organisation was the issue of in-complete documentation which led to gaps during the reporting cycle. The lesson i learnt from that incident is that data must be complete to be useful or meaningful.

In my professional and educational career i learnt that identifying risk and assumption during project designing is very important for successfully implementation of the project and meeting the expected goal.
I would like to share one of my experience with our Peers which realized that identifying risk and assumption is very much required. I worked in a project for improving the drug adherence among People Living With HIV / AIDS. After six months of project implementation it was found that 30% people are not taking their treatment regularly because of lack of bus fare to go to the service facility. This situation gave us direction and added one more activity to overcome from this risk.

I was part of the implementing people when we were introducing Technology in Education to 4 primary schools. There was an assumption that this program would be sustainable in the long run but after a couple of years it proved not to be the case. The costs of maintaining these tablets (updating, repairing broken tablets proved to be just too much and schools were happy to use them as long a these worked and just did not have enough money to repair, replace or keep these updated. The one learner one tablet soon proved to be a challenge.
It helps to ask people or organisations that have walked that path before and be open to criticism. People working in the field can offer valuable insight based on experience.