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  • Assumptions and Risks – Two Sides of a Coin or probably a head and a tail

    Let’s take an example of a common statement that is included in many Project Definitions – that the resources needed for this project will be available when needed. What kind of a statement is this? Most people would say it is an assumption. After all, when a project starts, you always assume you will get the resources you need.

    However, is it really an assumption? Can you imagine starting a project where the people and equipment were not available and there was a realistic possibility that they would not be ready when you need them – perhaps because another project needed to finish first? It is not too difficult to imagine that scenario. In that case, the same statement would definitely be a risk – not an assumption.

    The same statement might be an assumption or a risk depending on the circumstances of your particular project. There is some degree of uncertainty to an assumption. If the event is negative and there is a low probability that it will happen, it can be stated as an assumption. If the event is positive and there is a high likelihood it will happen, it is also an assumption. One way to identify important assumptions is to perform a risk assessment and look at all the low-risk items. Most of these low risks are not worth mentioning, but some will have significant implications if events do not turn out as you think. These are the ones that you can document as assumptions.

    There are two key characteristics of risks and assumptions. First, there must be some uncertainty to the event. If there is 100% chance of an event occurring, it is simply a fact. If there is a 0% chance of the event occurring, it is fiction. Neither are risks or assumptions.

    Second, assumptions and risks are both outside the total control of the project team. If the event is within the control of the project team it is neither an assumption nor a risk. It should simply be managed to make it happen.

    Review the following examples for more clarity on assumptions and risks.

    Statement

    Assumption, Risk or Other?
    We will have strong support for this initiative from our executive sponsor. Can’t tell if it a risk or an assumption. Depending on the project, there could be a high degree of risk in this statement (risk) or very little (assumption).
    We will complete requirements before we begin design work. This is part of the project approach. It is not a risk or assumption because it is within the control of the project team.
    Our vendor will complete their installation by October 1 Can’t tell if it a risk or an assumption. Depending on the project, there could be a high degree of risk in this statement (risk) or very little (assumption).
    We must go to the moon to get the supply of meteor fragments that this project requires. This is not a risk or assumption because there is no risk involved. It is a fiction (0% true).
    It is 60 miles from one project team location to the other. This is not a risk or assumption because there is no risk involved. It is a fact (100% true). (If it were not true it would be a fiction (0% true), but it would still not be an assumption or risk statement.)

  • Assumptions and Risks – Two Sides of a Coin or probably a head and a tail

    Let’s take an example of a common statement that is included in many Project Definitions – that the resources needed for this project will be available when needed. What kind of a statement is this? Most people would say it is an assumption. After all, when a project starts, you always assume you will get the resources you need.

    However, is it really an assumption? Can you imagine starting a project where the people and equipment were not available and there was a realistic possibility that they would not be ready when you need them – perhaps because another project needed to finish first? It is not too difficult to imagine that scenario. In that case, the same statement would definitely be a risk – not an assumption.

    The same statement might be an assumption or a risk depending on the circumstances of your particular project. There is some degree of uncertainty to an assumption. If the event is negative and there is a low probability that it will happen, it can be stated as an assumption. If the event is positive and there is a high likelihood it will happen, it is also an assumption. One way to identify important assumptions is to perform a risk assessment and look at all the low-risk items. Most of these low risks are not worth mentioning, but some will have significant implications if events do not turn out as you think. These are the ones that you can document as assumptions.

    There are two key characteristics of risks and assumptions. First, there must be some uncertainty to the event. If there is 100% chance of an event occurring, it is simply a fact. If there is a 0% chance of the event occurring, it is fiction. Neither are risks or assumptions.

    Second, assumptions and risks are both outside the total control of the project team. If the event is within the control of the project team it is neither an assumption nor a risk. It should simply be managed to make it happen.

    Review the following examples for more clarity on assumptions and risks.

    Statement

    Assumption, Risk or Other?
    We will have strong support for this initiative from our executive sponsor. Can’t tell if it a risk or an assumption. Depending on the project, there could be a high degree of risk in this statement (risk) or very little (assumption).
    We will complete requirements before we begin design work. This is part of the project approach. It is not a risk or assumption because it is within the control of the project team.
    Our vendor will complete their installation by October 1 Can’t tell if it a risk or an assumption. Depending on the project, there could be a high degree of risk in this statement (risk) or very little (assumption).
    We must go to the moon to get the supply of meteor fragments that this project requires. This is not a risk or assumption because there is no risk involved. It is a fiction (0% true).
    It is 60 miles from one project team location to the other. This is not a risk or assumption because there is no risk involved. It is a fact (100% true). (If it were not true it would be a fiction (0% true), but it would still not be an assumption or risk statement.)

    well unrealistic targets are there but then they are not 100% true and valid. instead they act to push the m and e plan to its limit and strength it out for any potential outcome

  • M&E should be used at every stage of the project cycle. Organizations with great M&E systems start collecting data even before they decide what kind of project they are creating.

  • Good monitoring and evaluation Will be good impact for company

    J
    1 Reply
  • M&E should be used at every stage of the project cycle. Organizations with great M&E systems start collecting data even before they decide what kind of project they are creating.

  • I've learnt that it's important to assess risks and assumptions. More composure would be experienced during project implementation when we anticipate certain curveballs, and are prepared to respond to risk factors.

    Also, it's interesting to see that assumptions are not enough...we need research and proof to back our decisions.

  • Yes, you are...as the entire purpose is to enable you to be ready and develop a contingency plan. The best part is that this information can aid in future planning or already existing information from past projects can be resourceful.

  • True, it definitely promotes efficiency and enables you to get rid of all dead tasks that we tend to carry along that might not directly influence impact or outcomes

  • M&E is the best thing that can happen for one's strategy!

  • Risk, and assumptions in a project entails project uncertainties and the possible impacts that the unforeseen happenings may impact the outcome of a project/program.
    Could be financial risks, natural calamities that may hinder course of a project, manmade such as bad policies and political instabilities.

    S
    1 Reply
  • A good project must have assumptions on its logframe

  • Every investment has its risks and assumptions and Sometimes our assumptions may not become true, that's when the risk falls.knowing the risks of our project prepare us on how to deal with them if they might fall in the process.

  • Have the impact you desire an organisation in mind is one strong foundation in achieving the desired goals in a project cycle. With this your input, output and outcome are metued to suit the impact of the project cycle.

  • with the knowledge of how to create a log frame, it is important to know the risks and assumptions involved in ones project.

  • risks are factors that are not under our control of and assumptions are believes that are not supported by evidence and they are biases that can affect the project.

  • They are both not certain, anything can happen being a positive scenario or a negative one.

  • Researching and talking to stakeholders will be important in identifying the most important risks.

    S
    1 Reply
  • The importance of identifying risk and assumptions before they cause trouble is:

    • you can understand events and conditions that are unforeseeable that can affects your implementation on time and therefore given enough time to make dissensions.
    • Microloans may help girls upgrade their businesses’ equipment. This might lead to improved financial prosperity.
      -Girls will upgrade their existing businesses’ equipment.
      -Even if MEH does a great job providing microloans, they cannot be certain that girls will use the money to start a business.
      That is what separates an outcome from an output.
      -IF girls receive microloans, THEN girls will start new businesses or upgrade equipment in their existing businesses.
      Risk and Assumptions
      -The girls’ businesses might not make any money.
      -The girls' business might not be financially successful
      Girls might be discouraged from starting or their family or culture.
      -Girls might might not know ho to starting upgrading businesses
      -Microloans are given to the wrong people.
      -Girls are not interested in getting microloans.
      -There are not enough funds for microloans.
  • Risk and assumptions is an integral part of the projection design process and is paramount to its success. This because they help:

    • inform on actions to take to ensure project success

    • provides insight on upcoming projects

    • Helps remove bias by highlighting loop holes in the project.

  • Risks and assumptions I identified helped me a lot in dealing with my biases as I realize at some point bias has been affecting me in most of my decision making which greatly affects project implementation. My personal experience with project implementation has changed and I can now attest the importance of outlining the risks that i may encounter in the process and at the same time drawing assumptions.

  • Did not understand what I am supposed to be doing

  • There must be an emphasis on the project's assumptions because many times without our knowledge we can unload our biases on the project

  • The "Risks and Assumptions" column of the logical framework lists all the situations that might undermine your plan. For each level of the logical framework-input, output, result, and impact-you will ask: What might go wrong? What might prevent you from providing input? And, if you provide input, are you sure this will result in output​​?

    The if/then statement will help us discover risks and assumptions. For example, after reading the following if/then statement, we can ask:

    What kind of knowledge will help you perform better in job applications?

    Is the knowledge enough to help you perform better in job applications?

  • The "Risks and Assumptions" column of the logical framework lists all the situations that might undermine your plan. For each level of the logical framework-input, output, result, and impact-you will ask: What might go wrong? What might prevent you from providing input? And, if you provide input, are you sure this will result in output​​? Writing your project summary as series of if/then statements will help you spot risks and assumptions.

  • Risks are things we cannot control directly and assumptions are our biases that don't have any evidence to support them. I see how to bring out risks and assumptions that will potentially affect the project. The process of filling the logframe looks simple.

  • Proper risk assessment and evaluation of assumptions and biases are important for the success of a project

  • I think this topic was really useful i learned allot about log frame many information were new to me and i didn't know about. Now that i gained these new information and techniques it will definitely help me in my work

  • risques et hypothèses

  • risks and assumptions are importants

  • Thank very much

  • For risks, they may appear some unforseen happenings which are not controlable either from the policy makers, government , stakeholder or society at large

    1 Reply
  • For risks, they may appear some unforseen happenings which are not controlable either from the policy makers, government , stakeholder or society at large

  • Good materials

  • Risks and Assumptions have to be included in logical framework during planning a project, as if it can help project team to keep possible risks in their implementation plan. And it will be very helpful for them to take alternative initiatives whenever they face those risk. Moreover, it will help project team to achieved project goals properly.

  • Risk is an uncertain threat, incase of occurring, could have a negative impact in the completion of the goal or activity. Assumption means the necessary condition that will enable the successful completion of the goal or activity.

  • To define risk and assessment

  • To define risk and assessment

  • Risks and assumptions need be followed strictly

  • Risks and assumptions are a big place in M&E subject

  • Risks and assumptions

    Identifying risks and assumptions serves to assess whether the Goals and Activities proposed are realistic and achievable in the given time frame and within the given available human and financial resources.
    In this context, a risk is defined as an uncertain threat that, in case of occurring, could have a negative impact in the completion of the Goal or Activity. An assumption, on the other side, is the necessary condition that will enable the successful completion of the Goal or Activity.
    In order to avoid repetition and redundancy, risks and assumptions should be defined at two levels: general and specific level.

    General risks and assumptions can be either related to the overall implementation of the Roadmap or common to all Goals included in the Roadmap. Specific risks and assumptions will be related to a concrete Activity, i.e. a particular risk that could hinder the successful implementation of a concrete Activity or an assumption that is key to the implementation of a specific Activity. For instance, a specific assumption for the Activity "establishing an Authorised Economic Operators Scheme" is that incentives granted to AEOs are enough to motivate private traders to invest in the time and resources to get the certification.

    If described negatively, an assumption can become a risk. On the contrary, if defined in positive terms, a risk can be transformed into an assumption. Thus, it is very important to pay attention to redundancy.
    Assumptions that were considered in the form of risks do not need to be noted again and vice-versa. Similarly, risks and assumptions that were defined at general level, do not need to be mentioned again at specific level. If resistance to change is a major risk for the overall completion of the Roadmap's Goals, it would be also risk for the different Activities considered.

    M
    B
    2 Replies
  • Risks assumptions are very important in M&E

  • To me, risks and assumptions seem to be related and inseparable. Just wondering if there is a need to separate them in the logframe, in a way?

    • Identifying risks and assumptions serves to assess whether the Goals and Activities proposed are realistic and achievable in the given time frame and within the given available human and financial resources.

    The assumptions describe the situations, events, conditions or decisions which are necessary for the success of the project, but which are largely or completely beyond the control of the project's management.

    but Risks are events that may have a negative impact on the project.

  • Risk and assumptions is very important to take into consideration when you design any projects. Also you can understand events and conditions that are unforeseeable that might affect your implementation, therefore giving you enough time to make decisions at the right time.
    We tested for our assumptions and risks within our log frame by looking at our past events and seeing out of those activities we had implemented some of the common assumptions and risk.

    M
    1 Reply
  • Risks and assumptions play an important role towards the success of a project design. It is therefore important to outline them before we start our project design so that in the event that we counter them especially the risks, we will be well armed with the means of edging against such risks. For the assumptions, it will be important to have them listed especially when we have no evidence of supporting them so that in the event that the assumptions do not hold under a certain circumstances, we will know how to adjust our project design accordingly

  • Risks and assumptions are two sides of the same coin. Risks are viewed or framed as potential negative things that can prevent the project from achieving its goal while assumptions are framed as positive things that could support the project to achieve its goal. Examples of assumptions include 1) the the government, community and relevant stakeholders will be receptive to the project and support its implementation. 2) In a digital health records system project the assumption will be that all facilities have internet coverage, computers and the staff will have skills to use the digital records system. Example of Risks will include 1) Lack of support from the government and other stakeholders, 2) Resistance from the health care workers towards the digital health records system 3) Lack of internet coverage and computers to all health facilities.

  • Risks show the things that could go wrong and are out of your control while assumptions show the things that you think can go wrong, of which there is no evidence. it is necessary to determine the risks and assumptions before a project begins. At each step of the project design procedure (logical frame work), you should constantly ask "what could go wrong?". Writing your project summary as IF and THEN statements helps you spot risks and assumptions.

  • Les risques et les hypothèses nous permettent de pousser notre réflexion sur tous les problèmes qui pourraient influencer l'aboutissement de notre projet. Grâces à cette approche les sillonnes du projet sont mieux définis.
    j'ai beaucoup apprécié la création de formulaire des participants.
    Quelles sont les difficultés que nous pouvons rencontrer dans la gestion des données au niveau de la collecte des données,

  • Identifying risks and assumptions provides the opportunity to plan ahead and smooth implementation of the project.
    When planning a project we tend to be more positive and optimistic. But things can go wrong in any level and assumptions may not become reality.
    Assumptions specify necessary conditions out of the direct control of the project though that must exist to achieve the desirable output, outcome or impact.
    The logframe helps to identify these risks and the assumptions at each level and plan to mitigate the risks.
    It gives an opportunity to revise the project design if the assumptions are incorrect or the risks are too high.

  • risks refer to the potential hurdles that the project might face and assumptions refer to the thoughts/ideas that the people assume or have prior in mind.

  • yes, true that.

  • It is my opinion that Risks are quite straightfoward and practical to come up with and to respond to. Assumptions on the otherhand i feel can be a little more abstract and thus possibly a little more complext to list and address

  • First of all, very clear and easy to understand about risk and assumptions. and i think it's so important to get the right assumptions / risks which are indicated in each level outputs-outcomes and impact. however, what about positive assumptions... should we stated? i experience with a team recently, they included some positive assumption (i called supportive conditions) for example: If our government partners fully support our project implementation..impact will happen...

  • Risks and assumptions are important as it frames and provides what need to be looked at if and then doesnt happen, it comes with different assumptions of what could go wrong, what is not being accounted for.

  • It is important to identify the risks and assumptions because they help you understand events and conditions that might affect your implementation. Therefore they give you enough time to make the right decisions and plan for all the risks and assumptions that may occur when making your M&E plan and when implementing.

    It's important you find out the risks and assumptions before the project starts.

  • What happens when the risks are beyond solution? Do you stop implementing the project totally, assuming the activities in plan are the only means of achieving the project target impact/goal?

  • risk and assumptions might sound critical and negative at time but that helps to plan the activities properly ahead of time

  • yes, that would be the most important aspect in finding out the risk factors

  • These risks and assumptions assumed helps to foresee the future and how to overcome the challenges. it also gives a rood for the coordinator of the project to foretell the best way of recruiting human resource for the project. This is a great trend for any project.

  • assumptions and risks very important for estimation

  • Risks are unforeseen incidents that might affect the project negatively while assumptions are what ought to happen which could be our expected outcomes but we do not have total control over

  • Visualizing possible risks that can pop up in my project can save it, problems can have certain type of planning.
    For example, the assumption that rise from the outcomes of MEH that girls may not know how to start their business can be prevented by accompanied workshop in finances to insure that girls will have greater knowledge to make a decision about their business.

  • Risk and assumption is anything that will be an impediment to the project achieving its goals and objective.

  • Logframe work is very important in monitoring and evaluation. Since it shows all the aspects in clear manner and easy to follow

    D
    1 Reply
  • Trying to picture the possible risks help the project planners and implementers to think of the best ways those risks could be overcome.

  • Risks and assumptions are factors that could affect your the success of your project from outside.

  • Very true. It is supposed to be logical in a way that, the logical flow is from the output through output then to outcomes and ends in the impact.

  • For a project to be as effective and successful, over an M&E plan, a working dependable Logical frame needs to be drafted to fully examine the risks and assumptions to escape biases.

  • To achieve stated goal and objectives in project execution and implementation, risks and assumptions that might negatively impact on the project. Taking precautions before the project is in full scale

  • I would want to add that, with project risks and assumptions, you can find that some of them change. It is necessary to take required actions and adjust them as needed. These changes and alterations should not affect the project quality, costs, and schedule.

  • Also risks and assumptions should be well documented and communicated to stakeholders, otherwise it may lead to project failure.

  • Risk and Assumption will help the Organization on escaping Known problems which will hinder the projects

  • Hello Friends
    can I get to knw more about module 2 especially on how to select my activities concerning the Assignment

  • The Risks and Assumptions column is the fourth column of the logical framework. The assumptions describe the situations, events, conditions or decisions which are necessary for the success of the project, but which are largely or completely beyond the control of the project's management. A risk is defined as an uncertain threat that, in case of occurring, could have a negative impact in the completion of the Goal or Activity.

  • The Risks and Assumptions column is the fourth column of the logical framework. The assumptions describe the situations, events, conditions or decisions which are necessary for the success of the project, but which are largely or completely beyond the control of the project's management. A risk is defined as an uncertain threat that, in case of occurring, could have a negative impact in the completion of the Goal or Activity

  • In this module, you will learn how to:

    Describe the components of a logframe

    Explain how the logframe serves as the foundation for M&E activities

    Assess whether activities will lead to desired effects

    Identify risks and assumptions that could disrupt a project

  • Why it is important to plan for risks and assumptions ahead of time is so that
    you can understand events and conditions that are unforeseeable
    that might affect your implementation, therefore giving you enough time to make
    decisions at the right time.
    We tested for our assumptions and risks within our
    logframe by looking at our past events and seeing out of those activities we
    had implemented some of the common assumptions and risks.
    Then we go
    through our beneficiaries and ask them what would be some of the assumptions
    that we had put along whether they fitted and finally we looked at the list
    of activities that we did and listed some of our assumptions.
    A common
    assumption that we had is that Kenya will have a new government by the end of
    August of this year. Unfortunately this didn't go on because there was prolonged
    electioneering process and brought a repeat of elections.
    Out of this it meant
    that we could not implement our project. We created a subgroup that included
    our beneficiaries and they could inform us about the risks that are on the ground
    and we could plan appropriately.
    We also adjusted our work plan and our targets.

  • Risks is an uncertain threat that, in case of occurring, could have a negative impact in the completion of a goal or project while assumptions is the necessary condition that enable the successful completion of the goal or project or activity. Assumptions is what you belive to be true but sometimes they can be false.

  • Risks is an uncertain threat that, in case of occurring, could have a negative impact in the completion of a project or goal while assumptions is the necessary condition that enables the successful completion of a goal or activity or project. It is what you believe to be true but sometimes its false.

  • How can risks that were not forseen during project design be dealt with when they occur? For example you are building a school laboratory and after completion you find that roofing sheets are all leaking because the were of poor quality. With what budget would you use to buy new roofs? How will you pay workers?

  • I always used to be confused defining Risks and Assumptions. Now it is too clear to me. I am grateful!

  • Risks and assumptions should not be neglected when preparing an monitoring and evaluation plan.

    M
    1 Reply
  • Risks and assumptions should not be neglected when preparing an monitoring and evaluation plan.

  • Having risk and assumptions about my project helps me to plan for any unforeseen circumstances that may arise which would affect my desired results

  • Risk and assumptions helps me to plan for any unforeseen circumstances that may arise which would affect the outcome of my project.

  • Such elaborate explanation of risk and assumptions. Well done

  • Risk and assumptions is an important part of a project's M&E . It allows for alternative plans to be taken to adjust expected outcomes to the satisfaction of the team and the project at large

  • Using past events to put together Risks and assumptions for your project is a step in the right direction

  • Risk and assumptions can not be left out of a project's M&E if you desire to make impact

  •   Risks and Assumptions
    

    Risks and Assumptions is a column of a log frame that list all things that might disrupt plans. This is due to events and conditions that are unforeseeable that might affect the implementation of project.
    The test for Risk and Assumption within log frame is by looking at past events and seeing out of those activities.
    Example: I want to give vaccines to people in the village{rural areas} and create awareness of some viral diseases.
    what if they are not going to take it?
    what if they are discouraged by their traditions ?
    what some of them have underlining sickness?.

  • Risks and Assumptions
    Risks and Assumption it is a column of a log frame that list all things that might affect or disrupt plans . This is due to events and conditions that are unforeseeable that might affect implementation of project.
    The test for Risks and Assumptions within log frame by looking at our past event and seeing out of those activities.

  • I understood the risks and assumptions,

    In fact, this part is playing a crucial role in our project log-frame,

    Thank you

  • Risks are the things outside of one's control which disrupts your plans or the business's plans, project's plans.
    its good to under stand risks before you continue with the plan because it helps to understand the events and conditions that are unseen, it helps to make decisions at the right time, helps to plan appropriately and adjust in the work plan and targets if necessary.

    Assumptions are just the biases that one has, this is just how one believes in his/ her feeling about something that is taking place without an evidence.

  • I have understood this lecture

  • risk is defined as an uncertain threat that, in case of occurring, could have a negative impact in the completion of the Goal or Activity. ... An assumption, on the other side, is the necessary condition that will enable the successful completion of the Goal or Activity.

  • what is the main advantage of Risks and Assumptions ?

    M
    1 Reply
  • Identification of risks and assumptions is vital for the success of the project. while in these module we've covered assumptions I'd like to mention about constraints. These are more of the limits that a project must work within and are unavoidable Their identification is vital as well is essential for navigating an effective project path.

  • Risks are the things outside of one's control which disrupts your plans or the business's plans, project's plans.
    its good to under stand risks before you continue with the plan because it helps to understand the events and conditions that are unseen, it helps to make decisions at the right time, helps to plan appropriately and adjust in the work plan and targets if necessary.

    Assumptions are just the biases that one has, this is just how one believes in his/ her feeling about something that is taking place without an evidence.

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